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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Northern Oil And Gas, Inc. (XNYS:NOG) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NOG
Name:
NORTHERN OIL AND GAS, INC. (XNYS:NOG)
Sector:
- 263565.00K
Industry:
Oil & Gas E&P
CEO:
Mr. Nicholas O'Grady
Total Employees:
25
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 32.70% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NORTHERN OIL AND GAS, INC.(NOG) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND OIL & GAS E&P INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
31.53
One Month Price Target:
$31.9
Six Month Price Target :
$33.74
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$35.96
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$31.32
Price Upper limit ($) :
$31.89
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$28.15
This week:
$23.98
This month :
$16.42
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.46B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
78.91M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
33.8%
-37.68%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$47.19
$39.91
$15.87
$23.15
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$37.54
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$35.99
$25.50
$27.07
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NOG
Sharpe Ratio:
4.03%
Comparison:
NOG, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -12.34% lower than the industry
& ratio is 76.75% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NOG
Daily returns:
0.22%
Weekly returns:
1.12%
Monthly returns:
4.47%
Yearly returns:
61.42%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -12.70% below industry average
Classification:
NOG, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.72
Statistical test of Returns:
NOG has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.33%
Weekly Volatility:
11.91%
Monthly Volatility:
23.82%
Yearly Volatility:
82.51%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
4.50%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -15.46% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.71%
Weekly VaR:
-23.96%
Monthly VaR:
-47.92%
How Much Can the price of
NOG
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-40%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$18.98
This translates to price declining to:
$4.73
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NOG is a 238.19% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 189.73% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -0.23% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NOG
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.09
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.068
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.51
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-0.067
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.936
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.957
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.595
Beta is 31.04% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
2.012
Beta is 3.89% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
175.74%
Sustainable growth rate is 482.50% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.361
Alpha is -18.74% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2301% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NOG
Equity cost of capital:
0.175
Equity cost of capital is 3.17% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-0.56%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.67%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.48%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.48%
WACC is -26.58% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$16.15
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-70.48
Annual revenue growth rate is -140.80% below industry average
EPS:
-$6.36
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
47.05%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 45.98% higher than the Oil & Gas E&P industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$14.19
EBITDA per share
$2.73
Valuation Analysis Today of
NOG
P/E Ratio:
13.27
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
5.59
P/E ratio is 137.41% higher than main peers & is -68.50% lower than the industry
-
NOG is -111.77% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $97.09
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $29.68
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.95
Price to sales ratio is -60.34% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-70.48
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-98.41%
Net income growth rate is -113.84% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: -5.62%
Dividend yeild: 1.30%
Previous Dividend: $0.19
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.19
Previous Dividend: $0.41
Expected next dividend best case: $0.30
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.08
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.10
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 15.87%
Expected next dividend payment date: 27/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 27/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 29/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 29/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-28--$0.19
2021-12-30--$0.06
2021-09-29--$0.05
2022-03-29--$0.14
2021-12-29--$0.08
2021-06-29--$0.03
Dividend growth rate is -61.65% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-3171.21%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-3161.76%
Debt to assets ratio:
55.30%
Net debt to assets ratio:
55.13%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 3.82% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.39
Interest coverage ratio is -57.21% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-14.97%
Annual debt growth is -101% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 9.54%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.396
Statistical significance of correlation:
NOG has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.394
Stock price is 0.49% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.394
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.06
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.186
Kurtosis
8.314
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.214
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NOG
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
254%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-3.67%
Operating profit margin is 166.71% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
254%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.94%
Effective tax rate is -104.75% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
311.15%
Return on equity (ROE) is 3555.04% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-5.43%
Return on assets (ROA) is -335.99% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.2x
Current Ratio:
0.52
Current ratio is -74.11% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-15
Cash conversion cycle is -121.20% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-1.32%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
51.0M
Each employee generates 537% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
8.6M
Each employee generates 253% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 4393.7K
Each employee generates -1150% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 10542.6K
Each employee generates 11340% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
68.0M
Each employee generates 11340% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
NOG
Energy Fuels Inc. (XNYS:UUUU)
NEXGEN ENERGY LTD. (XNYS:NXE)
Denison Mines Corp. (XNYS:DNN)
CENTRUS ENERGY CORP. (XNYS:LEU)
PINEDALE ENERGY LIMITED (XTSX:MCF.H)
RILEY EXPLORATION PERMIAN, INC. (XNYS:REPX)
GDP
Ur-Energy Inc. (XNYS:URG)
GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC. (XNYS:GTE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�21%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.27B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
451.96M
822.26M
-
37.37M
37.37M
-
-
37.37M
-
63.49M
260.81M
215.47M
- 46754.00K
- 109842.00K
- 108820.00K
1.02M
- 109842.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
789.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
1.45M
Change in Working Capital :
- 80985.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 102033.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
439.34M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
154.03M
Investments in PP&E:
- 361658.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
3.34M
-
3.34M
297.75M
-
22.37M
323.46M
1.69B
-
-
-
-
11.47M
1.70B
-
2.02B
101.70M
-
-
-
523.83M
625.53M
1.12B
314.74M
1.43B
-
2.06B
479.00K
- 1980556.00K
-
1.94B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
489.33M
- 35302.00K
2.02B
-
1.12B
1.1B
-
- 55941.00K
- 417599.00K
- 118000.00K
-
- 50225.00K
- 6176.00K
431.78M
257.38M
-
- 6184.00K
3.34M
9.52M
154.03M
- 417599.00K
- 263565.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NOG
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$36.07
$41.14
$46.92
$53.51
$61.03