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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Nordstrom, Inc. (XNYS:JWN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
JWN
Name:
NORDSTROM, INC. (XNYS:JWN)
Sector:
- 490000.00K
Industry:
Department Stores
CEO:
Mr. Erik Nordstrom
Total Employees:
60,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 0.00% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NORDSTROM, INC.(JWN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DEPARTMENT STORES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
17.68
One Month Price Target:
$17.9
Six Month Price Target :
$19.02
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$20.37
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$17.53
Price Upper limit ($) :
$17.83
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$15.87
This week:
$13.64
This month :
$9.59
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.87B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
159.13M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
37.82%
-29.03%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$26.08
$22.26
$9.28
$13.10
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$21.01
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$20.20
$14.34
$15.16
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
JWN
Sharpe Ratio:
0.00%
Comparison:
JWN, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -99.59% lower than the industry
& is -99.92% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
JWN
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.04%
Monthly returns:
0.18%
Yearly returns:
7.02%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -69.46% below industry average
Classification:
JWN, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.81
Statistical test of Returns:
JWN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.99%
Weekly Volatility:
11.15%
Monthly Volatility:
22.30%
Yearly Volatility:
77.25%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.55%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -48.80% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.23%
Weekly VaR:
-22.88%
Monthly VaR:
-45.76%
How Much Can the price of
JWN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-40%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$10.54
This translates to price declining to:
$2.65
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
JWN is a 222.95% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 176.67% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 0.95% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
JWN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.26
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.318
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.864
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.11
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.135
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.958
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.553
Beta is 45.72% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.935
Beta is 16.99% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
4.01%
Sustainable growth rate is -60.65% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.165
Alpha is 76.00% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1051% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
JWN
Equity cost of capital:
0.187
Equity cost of capital is 13.73% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
0.91%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.66%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.10%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.10%
WACC is -2.88% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$96.45
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
16.95
Annual revenue growth rate is 31.42% above the industry average
EPS:
$2.16
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-31.15%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 182.76% higher than the Department Stores industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.96
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -75.08%
Equity growth rate per share is 4.82% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$28.33
EBITDA per share
$8.72
Valuation Analysis Today of
JWN
P/E Ratio:
7.23
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
15.97
P/E ratio is -54.71% lower than main peers & is -12.00% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $17.76
JWN is -0.42% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $6.68
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $2.69
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.18
Price to sales ratio is -44.18% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
16.95
Price to free cash flow: 3.57
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-267.54%
Net income growth rate is 37.87% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 6.33%
Previous Dividend: $0.19
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.19
Previous Dividend: $1.12
Expected next dividend best case: $0.43
Expected next dividend worst case: -$0.05
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.28
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -16.22%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 16/08/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 31/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 18/05/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-27--$0.19
2020-03-09--$0.37
--$0.00
2022-03-25--$0.19
2019-11-27--$0.37
--$0.00
Dividend growth rate is -78.22% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
2716.27%
Net debt to equity ratio:
3059.04%
Debt to assets ratio:
48.31%
Net debt to assets ratio:
54.41%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -41.55% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
9.57
Interest coverage ratio is 186.01% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
78.63%
Annual debt growth is -8% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 12.04%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.505
Statistical significance of correlation:
JWN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.49
Stock price is 3.12% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.49
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.036
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.104
Kurtosis
9.022
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.58
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
JWN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
114%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-3.62%
Operating profit margin is -238.40% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
114%
Effective Tax Rate:
28.06%
Effective tax rate is -59.33% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
219.28%
Return on equity (ROE) is 1790.08% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.90%
Return on assets (ROA) is 24.37% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.9x
Current Ratio:
0.87
Current ratio is -27.81% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-31.4
Cash conversion cycle is -155.34% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
6.04%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
255.8K
Each employee generates -37% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
23.1K
Each employee generates -48% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
6.1K
Each employee generates -63% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 8.2K
Each employee generates 755% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
97.2K
Each employee generates 755% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
JWN
FIGS, INC. (XNYS:FIGS)
ACUSHNET HOLDINGS CORP. (XNYS:GOLF)
CANADA GOOSE HOLDINGS INC. (XNYS:GOOS)
M.D.C. HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:MDC)
Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (XNYS:BOOT)
TAYLOR MORRISON HOME CORPORATION (XNYS:TMHC)
LCI INDUSTRIES (XNYS:LCII)
KB HOME (XNYS:KBH)
GROUP 1 AUTOMOTIVE, INC. (XNYS:GPI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�13%
Hold�71%
Sell�21%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
15.35B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
10.86B
4.49B
-
-
5.04B
-
-
5.04B
-
145.00M
737.00M
1.39B
- 555200.00K
364.00M
506.00M
142.00M
364.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
205.00M
Differed Income Tax :
8.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
22.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 519000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
7.00M
Other Working Capital:
- 509000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
86.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 364000.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
5/1/21
2022
Q1
377.00M
-
377.00M
238.00M
1.96B
923.00M
3.50B
5.20B
249.00M
-
-
-
383.00M
5.83B
-
9.33B
1.68B
946.00M
-
-
1.39B
4.01B
4.51B
650.00M
5.16B
-
9.17B
3.22B
- 2996000.00K
- 59000.0K
-
May 1, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
15.90B
166.00M
9.33B
-
5.46B
5.1B
-
- 110000.00K
- 110000.00K
- 617000.00K
-
-
-
784.00M
167.00M
3.00M
- 304000.00K
377.00M
681.00M
- 364000.00K
- 126000.00K
- 490000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
JWN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$21.36
$24.61
$28.35
$32.66
$37.63