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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Nordson Corporation (XNAS:NDSN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NDSN
Name:
NORDSON CORPORATION (XNAS:NDSN)
Sector:
105.60M
Industry:
Specialty Industrial Machinery
CEO:
Mr. Sundaram Nagarajan
Total Employees:
7,200
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -0.60% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NORDSON CORPORATION(NDSN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
223.74
One Month Price Target:
$224.93
Six Month Price Target :
$230.88
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$238.01
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$223.03
Price Upper limit ($) :
$224.76
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$213.45
This week:
$200.74
This month :
$177.74
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
12.90B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
57.21M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
19.7%
-18.31%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$271.45
$249.41
$176.03
$198.07
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$242.24
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$237.54
$205.18
$209.94
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NDSN
Sharpe Ratio:
2.63%
Comparison:
NDSN, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 38.56% higher than the industry
& ratio is 15.18% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NDSN
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.34%
Monthly returns:
1.37%
Yearly returns:
16.25%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 1.16% above industry average
Classification:
NDSN, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.34
Statistical test of Returns:
NDSN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.27%
Weekly Volatility:
5.08%
Monthly Volatility:
10.16%
Yearly Volatility:
35.19%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.40%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -82.55% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.60%
Weekly VaR:
-10.28%
Monthly VaR:
-20.56%
How Much Can the price of
NDSN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-17%
Worst case (decline):
-71.22%
This translates to price declining to:
$184.82
This translates to price declining to:
$64.39
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NDSN is a 45.11% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 24.31% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -16.96% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NDSN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.95
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.658
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.931
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.722
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.64
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.929
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.493
Beta is -36.39% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.281
Beta is -25.91% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
17.07%
Sustainable growth rate is 14.69% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.068
Alpha is 57.01% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 432% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NDSN
Equity cost of capital:
0.097
Equity cost of capital is -19.07% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.34%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.38%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.88%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.88%
WACC is -80.00% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$43.54
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
5.77
Annual revenue growth rate is -77.74% below industry average
EPS:
$8.22
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
12.96%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 324.83% higher than the Specialty Industrial Machinery industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$8.05
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 34.56%
Equity growth rate per share is 220.17% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$15.49
EBITDA per share
$12.88
Valuation Analysis Today of
NDSN
P/E Ratio:
27.12
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
25.55
P/E ratio is 6.15% higher than main peers & is -1.43% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $226.17
NDSN is -1.07% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $51.50
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $33.39
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.14
Price to sales ratio is 23.86% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
5.77
Price to free cash flow: 27.81
Price to free cash flow ratio is -5.82% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
20.15%
Net income growth rate is 1397.13% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 6.16%
Dividend yeild: 0.91%
Previous Dividend: $0.51
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.51
Previous Dividend: $2.04
Expected next dividend best case: $0.56
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.46
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.43
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 3.34%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/05/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 22/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/09/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 24/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/11/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-23--$0.51
2021-12-20--$0.51
2021-05-24--$0.39
2022-02-18--$0.51
2021-08-23--$0.51
2021-02-22--$0.39
Dividend growth rate is -4.21% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
39.95%
Net debt to equity ratio:
34.84%
Debt to assets ratio:
23.11%
Net debt to assets ratio:
20.16%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -57.17% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
32.86
Interest coverage ratio is 68.37% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-13.96%
Annual debt growth is -119% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.37%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.597
Statistical significance of correlation:
NDSN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.635
Stock price is -5.97% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.635
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.025
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.033
Kurtosis
17.567
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.103
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NDSN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
224%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
27.28%
Operating profit margin is -212.67% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
224%
Effective Tax Rate:
21.10%
Effective tax rate is 12.90% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
21.76%
Return on equity (ROE) is 547.49% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
12.59%
Return on assets (ROA) is 168.18% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
2.45
Current ratio is -18.74% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
89.8
Cash conversion cycle is 45.88% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.74%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
345.9K
Each employee generates -91% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
102.4K
Each employee generates -86% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
67.0K
Each employee generates -83% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
14.7K
Each employee generates -71% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
386.2K
Each employee generates -71% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
NDSN
AMERCO (XNAS:UHAL)
C.H. ROBINSON WORLDWIDE, INC. (XNAS:CHRW)
PLUG POWER INC. (XNAS:PLUG)
ICAHN ENTERPRISES UNT (XNAS:IEP)
Kanzhun Ltd (XNAS:BZ)
AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC. (XNAS:AAL)
UNITED AIRLINES HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:UAL)
BNGOW
HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:HTZ)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�29%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
2.49B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.10B
1.39B
-
-
714.65M
-
-
714.65M
2.21M
22.43M
102.90M
737.07M
679.54M
482.69M
611.74M
129.06M
482.69M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
25.39M
Differed Income Tax :
1.79M
Stock Based Compensation :
8.39M
Change in Working Capital :
- 29217.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 8672.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
118.09M
Investments in PP&E:
- 12491.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 171613.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
1/31/22
2022
Q1
170.54M
-
170.54M
465.72M
366.38M
51.60M
1.05B
473.33M
1.84B
374.15M
-
18.73M
78.06M
2.78B
-
3.83B
96.50M
57.26M
30.86M
85.59M
190.11M
429.47M
886.32M
201.45M
1.19B
-
1.62B
12.25M
3.36B
- 186133.0K
-
January 31, 2022 at 7:00:00 AM
1.81B
2.22B
3.83B
-
943.58M
773.0M
-
7.00K
- 184097.00K
- 3258.00K
5.72M
- 35002.00K
- 29724.00K
361.00K
- 61902.00K
- 1521.00K
- 129433.00K
170.54M
299.97M
118.09M
- 12491.00K
105.60M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NDSN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$271.01
$288.30
$306.69
$326.26
$347.08