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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Nlight, Inc. (XNAS:LASR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
LASR
Name:
NLIGHT, INC. (XNAS:LASR)
Sector:
- 12137.00K
Industry:
Semiconductors
CEO:
Mr. Scott Keeney
Total Employees:
1,300
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -162.51% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NLIGHT, INC.(LASR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SEMICONDUCTORS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
11.58
One Month Price Target:
$11.73
Six Month Price Target :
$12.47
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$13.36
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$11.5
Price Upper limit ($) :
$11.66
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$10.57
This week:
$9.33
This month :
$7.09
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
518.15M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
45.10M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
24.81%
-19.08%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$16.25
$14.12
$6.91
$9.04
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$13.43
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$12.98
$9.72
$10.18
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
LASR
Sharpe Ratio:
0.06%
Comparison:
LASR, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -98.03% lower than the industry
& is -97.32% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
LASR
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.06%
Monthly returns:
0.23%
Yearly returns:
31.95%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -91.41% below industry average
Classification:
LASR, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.67
Statistical test of Returns:
LASR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.23%
Weekly Volatility:
9.46%
Monthly Volatility:
18.92%
Yearly Volatility:
65.55%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.08%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -27.18% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.68%
Weekly VaR:
-19.41%
Monthly VaR:
-38.81%
How Much Can the price of
LASR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-34%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$7.62
This translates to price declining to:
$1.74
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
LASR is a 173.94% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 134.68% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 19.23% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
LASR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.29
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.34
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.895
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
2.181
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.925
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.064
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.052
Beta is 117.71% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.41
Beta is 62.36% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.161
Alpha is -184.10% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1024% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
LASR
Equity cost of capital:
0.188
Equity cost of capital is 47.03% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
17.94%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$6.06
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.74
Annual revenue growth rate is -161.64% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.75
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
25.99%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -50.15% lower than the Semiconductors industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.34
EBITDA per share
-$0.39
Valuation Analysis Today of
LASR
P/E Ratio:
301.46
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
167.14
P/E ratio is 80.37% higher than main peers & is 626.82% higher than the industry
-
LASR is -137.23% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.91
Price to sales ratio is -76.49% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.74
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-223.41%
Net income growth rate is 290.02% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
5.05%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-38.80%
Debt to assets ratio:
4.13%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-31.70%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -89.41% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
561.60%
Annual debt growth is 512% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.415
Statistical significance of correlation:
LASR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.627
Stock price is -33.81% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.627
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.058
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.142
Kurtosis
3.219
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
0.441
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
LASR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
111%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-11.98%
Operating profit margin is -150.93% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
111%
Effective Tax Rate:
1.09%
Effective tax rate is -92.78% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-10.69%
Return on equity (ROE) is -137.40% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-8.74%
Return on assets (ROA) is -166.37% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
6.63
Current ratio is 63.32% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
40.7
Cash conversion cycle is -26.19% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 12.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-20.39%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
210.2K
Each employee generates -66% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 13.4K
Each employee generates -106% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 24.7K
Each employee generates -115% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 9.3K
Each employee generates -134% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
75.7K
Each employee generates -134% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 33.16%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 134.19% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
LASR
SIMULATIONS PLUS, INC. (XNAS:SLP)
MTSC
VEECO INSTRUMENTS INC. (XNAS:VECO)
NETGEAR, INC. (XNAS:NTGR)
VUZIX CORPORATION (XNAS:VUZI)
CEVA, INC (XNAS:CEVA)
ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES INC. (XNAS:IMOS)
IDEANOMICS, INC. (XNAS:IDEX)
GREENSKY, INC. (XNAS:GSKY)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�8%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
273.26M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
197.42M
75.84M
56.82M
-
51.77M
-
-
108.59M
-
-
15.08M
- 17417.00K
- 32747.00K
- 32143.00K
- 32497.00K
- 354.00K
- 32143.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.74M
Differed Income Tax :
- 4.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
6.55M
Change in Working Capital :
- 9535.00K
Accounts Receivables:
4.69M
Other Working Capital:
- 647.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
867.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 7004.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 5019.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
134.95M
-
134.95M
36.91M
77.24M
20.40M
269.50M
75.96M
12.41M
6.00M
-
-
4.06M
98.41M
-
367.91M
23.12M
3.14M
-
983.00K
13.38M
40.63M
15.19M
11.51M
26.70M
-
67.34M
15.00K
- 176678.00K
- 683.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
306.01M
300.58M
367.91M
-
18.33M
- 116618.0K
-
- 114.00K
- 5133.00K
-
-
-
-
611.00K
611.00K
- 59.00K
- 11585.00K
135.20M
146.78M
- 7004.00K
- 5133.00K
- 12137.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
LASR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$13.40
$15.46
$17.84
$20.59
$23.76