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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Nielsen Holdings Plc (XNYS:NLSN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NLSN
Name:
NIELSEN HOLDINGS PLC (XNYS:NLSN)
Sector:
137.00M
Industry:
Consulting Services
CEO:
Mr. David Kenny
Total Employees:
14,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -57.33% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NIELSEN HOLDINGS PLC(NLSN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND CONSULTING SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
27.85
One Month Price Target:
$28.04
Six Month Price Target :
$29.01
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$30.17
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$27.73
Price Upper limit ($) :
$28.02
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$26.1
This week:
$23.94
This month :
$20.03
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
10.02B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
359.88M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
30.5%
-12.71%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$35.96
$32.21
$19.74
$23.49
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$30.99
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$30.19
$24.70
$25.51
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NLSN
Sharpe Ratio:
2.84%
Comparison:
NLSN, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 31.96% higher than the industry
& ratio is 24.82% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NLSN
Daily returns:
0.10%
Weekly returns:
0.49%
Monthly returns:
1.94%
Yearly returns:
14.72%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 58.36% above industry average
Classification:
NLSN, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.96
Statistical test of Returns:
NLSN has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.10%
Weekly Volatility:
6.94%
Monthly Volatility:
13.88%
Yearly Volatility:
48.08%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.14%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -95.47% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.28%
Weekly VaR:
-14.03%
Monthly VaR:
-28.07%
How Much Can the price of
NLSN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$21.25
This translates to price declining to:
$4.18
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NLSN is a 98.10% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 69.71% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 26.54% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NLSN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.24
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.736
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.04
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.448
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.674
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.799
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.352
Beta is -8.24% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.889
Beta is 39.52% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
25.06%
Sustainable growth rate is 58.00% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.117
Alpha is 112.83% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 743% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NLSN
Equity cost of capital:
0.116
Equity cost of capital is 26.05% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.21%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.72%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.73%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.73%
WACC is 15.13% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$9.76
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.79
Annual revenue growth rate is -322.73% below industry average
EPS:
$1.37
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.63
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -82.74%
Equity growth rate per share is -817.88% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$15.86
EBITDA per share
$3.48
Valuation Analysis Today of
NLSN
P/E Ratio:
17.63
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
29.5
P/E ratio is -40.24% lower than main peers & is -8.79% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $26.48
NLSN is 5.18% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $12.85
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $2.06
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.85
Price to sales ratio is -16.70% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.79
Price to free cash flow: 17.07
Price to free cash flow ratio is -30.84% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-234.10%
Net income growth rate is -324.76% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 4.44%
Dividend yeild: 0.86%
Previous Dividend: $0.06
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.06
Previous Dividend: $0.24
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.06
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 14/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 31/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 16/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/02/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-01--$0.06
2021-11-17--$0.06
2021-06-02--$0.06
2022-03-02--$0.06
2021-08-18--$0.06
2021-03-03--$0.06
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
167.53%
Net debt to equity ratio:
154.40%
Debt to assets ratio:
52.44%
Net debt to assets ratio:
48.33%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -9.81% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.62
Interest coverage ratio is -75.82% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-33.62%
Annual debt growth is -241% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.516
Statistical significance of correlation:
NLSN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.51
Stock price is 1.18% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.51
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.037
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.068
Kurtosis
20.316
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
2.293
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NLSN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
258%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
23.22%
Operating profit margin is 104.51% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
258%
Effective Tax Rate:
-5.48%
Effective tax rate is -127.79% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
14.53%
Return on equity (ROE) is -29.73% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.55%
Return on assets (ROA) is -38.37% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.1x
Current Ratio:
1.96
Current ratio is 18.58% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
53.9
Cash conversion cycle is 160.41% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.62%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
251.0K
Each employee generates -23% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
89.4K
Each employee generates 8% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
35.4K
Each employee generates -25% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
9.8K
Each employee generates -210% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
685.8K
Each employee generates -210% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
NLSN
ACUITY BRANDS, INC. (XNYS:AYI)
DONALDSON COMPANY, INC. (XNYS:DCI)
HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNYS:HII)
Pacific Airport Group, S.A.B. de CV (XNYS:PAC)
TOPBUILD CORP. (XNYS:BLD)
OSHKOSH CORPORATION (XNYS:OSK)
ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. (XNYS:ALK)
CAE Inc. (XNYS:CAE)
MASTEC, INC. (XNYS:MTZ)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�25%
Hold�33%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.51B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.25B
2.27B
-
-
909.00M
-
515.00M
1.42B
-
271.00M
515.00M
1.25B
816.00M
495.00M
529.00M
- 29000.00K
495.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
130.00M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
8.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 21000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
5.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 13000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
219.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 17000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
1.00M
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
482.00M
-
482.00M
543.00M
-
256.00M
1.28B
390.00M
5.59B
3.42B
-
50.00M
147.00M
9.60B
-
10.88B
454.00M
35.00M
21.00M
145.00M
21.00M
655.00M
5.71B
364.00M
6.63B
-
7.29B
32.00M
- 148000.00K
- 734000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.67B
3.41B
10.69B
-
5.74B
5.3B
-
- 65000.00K
- 81000.00K
-
-
-
- 22000.00K
- 14000.00K
- 36000.00K
-
102.00M
482.00M
380.00M
219.00M
- 82000.00K
137.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NLSN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$35.00
$37.92
$41.08
$44.50
$48.21