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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. (XNYS:NIC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NCBS
Name:
NICOLET BANKSHARES, INC. (XNYS:NIC)
Sector:
19.99M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Robert Atwell
Total Employees:
850
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -1031.07% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NICOLET BANKSHARES, INC.(NIC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
75.45
One Month Price Target:
$75.76
Six Month Price Target :
$77.28
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$79.12
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$75.17
Price Upper limit ($) :
$75.77
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$71.86
This week:
$67.41
This month :
$59.38
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.10B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
14.67M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.12%
-9.76%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$92.13
$84.49
$58.77
$66.41
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$82.01
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$80.38
$68.87
$70.52
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NCBS
Sharpe Ratio:
0.97%
Comparison:
NCBS, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -21.29% lower than the industry
& is -57.58% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NCBS
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.16%
Monthly returns:
0.63%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -30.89% below industry average
Classification:
NCBS, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.92
Statistical test of Returns:
NCBS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.33%
Weekly Volatility:
5.22%
Monthly Volatility:
10.44%
Yearly Volatility:
36.17%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.53%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -77.29% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.76%
Weekly VaR:
-10.65%
Monthly VaR:
-21.30%
How Much Can the price of
NCBS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-18%
Worst case (decline):
-73.79%
This translates to price declining to:
$61.51
This translates to price declining to:
$19.78
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NCBS is a 50.34% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 28.80% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -18.28% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NCBS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.72
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.694
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.982
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.61
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.471
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.807
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.156
Beta is 364.55% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -24.96% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
8.88%
Sustainable growth rate is -2.68% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.006
Alpha is -148.45% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -36% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NCBS
Equity cost of capital:
0.081
Equity cost of capital is -16.90% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.84%
Before-tax cost of debt:
7.00%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.53%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.53%
WACC is -30.10% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$16.65
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.32
Annual revenue growth rate is 29.91% above the industry average
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-1.60%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -113.32% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$14.11
EBITDA per share
$8.26
Valuation Analysis Today of
NCBS
P/E Ratio:
13.96
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
22.1
P/E ratio is -36.84% lower than main peers & is 12.50% higher than the industry
-
-
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.53
Price to sales ratio is 5.94% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.32
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is -9.19% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
32.72%
Net income growth rate is -40.59% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
24.75%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-24.95%
Debt to assets ratio:
2.83%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-2.85%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.30% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
8.36
Interest coverage ratio is 909.26% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
302.67%
Annual debt growth is 95471% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 4.61%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.499
Statistical significance of correlation:
NCBS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -0.35% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.028
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.037
Kurtosis
5.709
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.31
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NCBS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
25.05%
Effective tax rate is 16.24% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
7.96%
Return on equity (ROE) is -33.27% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.91%
Return on assets (ROA) is -60.53% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.70%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
287.4K
Each employee generates -24% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
142.6K
Each employee generates -37% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
78.3K
Each employee generates -45% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
23.5K
Each employee generates -72% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.4M
Each employee generates -72% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
NCBS
HORIZON BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:HBNC)
COMMUNITY TRUST BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:CTBI)
Calamos Dyn Cv and Inc (XNAS:CCD)
STATE AUTO FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:STFC)
UNITED FIRE GROUP, INC. (XNAS:UFCS)
SLR INVESTMENT CORP. (XNAS:SLRC)
GREAT SOUTHERN BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:GSBC)
FIRST MID BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:FMBH)
ALTEROLA BIOTECH INC. (OTCM:ABTI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
244.29M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
97.58M
97.58M
-
-
-
192.60M
14.49M
17.91M
121.22M
-
66.58M
88.82M
22.25M
66.58M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
6.77M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
1.80M
Change in Working Capital :
- 5573.00K
Accounts Receivables:
6.79M
Other Working Capital:
- 933.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 5216.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
21.94M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
147.83M
Purchases of Investments:
- 54826.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
415.62M
852.33M
1.27B
102.21M
-
-
-
94.28M
317.19M
20.88M
1.59B
-
-
2.02B
9.34B
7.32B
45.84M
-
-
-
-
-
206.95M
-
206.95M
6.69B
6.48B
135.00K
337.77M
- 26071.0K
524.48M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
836.31M
7.32B
2.44B
206.95M
- 208669.0K
39.12M
- 61202.00K
70.92M
- 10000.00K
175.00K
- 54433.00K
-
- 227975.00K
- 292233.00K
-
- 199369.00K
395.92M
595.29M
21.94M
- 1953.00K
19.99M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NCBS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$59.34
$62.22
$65.25
$68.42
$71.74