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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ngm Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. (XNAS:NGM) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NGM
Name:
NGM BIOPHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:NGM)
Sector:
- 36023.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Mr. David Woodhouse
Total Employees:
225
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -2.31% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NGM BIOPHARMACEUTICALS, INC.(NGM) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
14.41
One Month Price Target:
$14.54
Six Month Price Target :
$15.22
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$16.02
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$14.32
Price Upper limit ($) :
$14.52
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$13.21
This week:
$11.72
This month :
$9.03
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.16B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
80.37M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.55%
-40.77%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$19.99
$17.43
$8.83
$11.39
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$16.60
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$16.06
$12.21
$12.76
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NGM
Sharpe Ratio:
1.30%
Comparison:
NGM, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -32.97% lower than the industry
& is -42.82% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NGM
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.31%
Monthly returns:
1.24%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -40.82% below industry average
Classification:
NGM, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.9
Statistical test of Returns:
NGM has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.09%
Weekly Volatility:
9.15%
Monthly Volatility:
18.30%
Yearly Volatility:
63.41%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.98%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -27.10% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.34%
Weekly VaR:
-18.66%
Monthly VaR:
-37.31%
How Much Can the price of
NGM
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-32%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$9.76
This translates to price declining to:
$2.16
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NGM is a 163.36% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 125.62% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -13.91% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NGM
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.67
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.774
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.094
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.428
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.588
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.331
Beta is 25.24% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is 44.71% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.004
Alpha is -97.46% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 23% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NGM
Equity cost of capital:
0.146
Equity cost of capital is 31.95% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.91%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.51%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.51%
WACC is 56.92% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.70
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.72
Annual revenue growth rate is -117.46% below industry average
EPS:
-$1.61
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
22.43%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 124.79% higher than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.05
EBITDA per share
-$1.48
Valuation Analysis Today of
NGM
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
70.58
-
-
NGM is -109.97% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
20.57
Price to sales ratio is -49.21% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.72
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-100.00%
Net income growth rate is -241.68% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
1.31%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-32.35%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.13%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-27.97%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -97.31% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-676.66
Interest coverage ratio is 471.78% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.185
Statistical significance of correlation:
NGM has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is -45.59% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.04
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.094
Kurtosis
15.399
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.263
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NGM
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-222.81%
Operating profit margin is -48.03% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-31.50%
Return on equity (ROE) is -45.06% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-27.24%
Return on assets (ROA) is 33.52% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
7.58
Current ratio is -6.41% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 12.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-7.98%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
250.2K
Each employee generates -84% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 529.3K
Each employee generates -237% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 435.6K
Each employee generates -440% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 160.1K
Each employee generates -209% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
98.4K
Each employee generates -209% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -100.00%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 2687.33% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
NGM
SORRENTO THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:SRNE)
BLUEBIRD BIO, INC. (XNAS:BLUE)
QUANTERIX CORPORATION (XNAS:QTRX)
REVANCE THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:RVNC)
MODIVCARE INC. (XNAS:MODV)
DECIPHERA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:DCPH)
KYMERA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:KYMR)
AXSOME THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:AXSM)
IGM BIOSCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:IGMS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
56.30M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
125.09M
29.41M
29.41M
-
-
154.50M
397.00K
176.00K
5.96M
- 119093.00K
- 125431.00K
- 98007.00K
- 125241.00K
-
- 98007.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.43M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
7.82M
Change in Working Capital :
- 13988.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 12657.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.45M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 35738.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 285.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 86904.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
109.87M
219.96M
329.83M
103.00K
-
7.69M
337.62M
13.01M
-
-
-
-
9.15M
22.15M
-
359.77M
4.82M
5.15M
-
5.12M
29.48M
44.56M
4.07M
-
4.07M
-
48.64M
78.00K
- 451416.00K
- 677.0K
763.15M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
154.50M
311.14M
359.77M
-
9.23M
- 100646.0K
80.34M
-
- 6853.00K
-
-
-
-
668.00K
668.00K
-
- 41923.00K
111.37M
153.29M
- 35738.00K
- 285.00K
- 36023.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NGM
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$16.07
$17.87
$19.87
$22.10
$24.57