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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Nextgen Healthcare, Inc. (XNAS:NXGN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NXGN
Name:
NEXTGEN HEALTHCARE, INC. (XNAS:NXGN)
Sector:
- 6227.00K
Industry:
Health Information Services
CEO:
Mr. John Frantz
Total Employees:
2,655
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -65.93% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NEXTGEN HEALTHCARE, INC.(NXGN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND HEALTH INFORMATION SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
17.04
One Month Price Target:
$17.14
Six Month Price Target :
$17.64
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$18.24
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$16.94
Price Upper limit ($) :
$17.16
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$15.71
This week:
$14.07
This month :
$11.09
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.14B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
68.02M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
38.81%
-30.15%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$23.21
$20.38
$10.87
$13.70
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$19.46
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$18.85
$14.61
$15.23
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NXGN
Sharpe Ratio:
1.48%
Comparison:
NXGN, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 43.86% higher than the industry
& is -35.18% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NXGN
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.33%
Monthly returns:
1.31%
Yearly returns:
5.07%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 209.58% above industry average
Classification:
NXGN, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.77
Statistical test of Returns:
NXGN has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.83%
Weekly Volatility:
8.57%
Monthly Volatility:
17.13%
Yearly Volatility:
59.35%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.70%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -55.59% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.80%
Weekly VaR:
-17.45%
Monthly VaR:
-34.89%
How Much Can the price of
NXGN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-30%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$11.91
This translates to price declining to:
$2.56
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NXGN is a 146.27% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 110.98% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 12.63% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NXGN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.05
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.68
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.961
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.038
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.83
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.124
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.105
Beta is -4.95% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.87
Beta is 20.70% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
0.16%
Sustainable growth rate is -98.82% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.054
Alpha is -232.94% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 342% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NXGN
Equity cost of capital:
0.103
Equity cost of capital is 13.54% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.22%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.27%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.17%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.17%
WACC is 25.10% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$8.77
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.64
Annual revenue growth rate is -100.10% below industry average
EPS:
$0.02
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-70.26%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -247.91% lower than the Health Information Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.38
-
-
Debt per share
$0.24
EBITDA per share
$0.72
Valuation Analysis Today of
NXGN
P/E Ratio:
798.17
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
74.81
P/E ratio is 966.94% higher than main peers & is 118.40% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $7.31
NXGN is 133.14% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.94
Price to sales ratio is -74.36% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.64
Price to free cash flow: 45.23
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
273.72%
Net income growth rate is -84.38% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
3.74%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-7.88%
Debt to assets ratio:
2.63%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-5.54%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -92.30% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
32.7
Interest coverage ratio is 117.05% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-82.52%
Annual debt growth is -298% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.444
Statistical significance of correlation:
NXGN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.376
Stock price is 18.05% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.376
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.002
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.004
Kurtosis
28.538
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.153
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NXGN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
202%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
1.12%
Operating profit margin is -106.25% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
202%
Effective Tax Rate:
68.86%
Effective tax rate is 247.67% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
0.37%
Return on equity (ROE) is -111.32% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.26%
Return on assets (ROA) is -114.92% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
1.25
Current ratio is -77.76% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
43.5
Cash conversion cycle is -11.46% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
396.29%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
224.6K
Each employee generates -46% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
18.5K
Each employee generates -145% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
0.6K
Each employee generates -101% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 2.3K
Each employee generates -119% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
162.1K
Each employee generates -119% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -9.36%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -28.53% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
NXGN
OCULAR THERAPEUTIX, INC. (XNAS:OCUL)
KEROS THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:KROS)
Shattuck Labs Inc (XNAS:STTK)
NATIONAL RESEARCH CORPORATION (XNAS:NRC)
CODEXIS, INC. (XNAS:CDXS)
PETIQ, INC. (XNAS:PETQ)
Repare Therapeutics Inc (XNAS:RPTX)
RADNET, INC. (XNAS:RDNT)
COMPASS PATHWAYS PLC (XNAS:CMPS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
596.35M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
295.40M
300.95M
76.66M
-
209.66M
-
3.53M
289.84M
101.00K
1.50M
42.32M
49.01M
6.66M
1.62M
5.20M
3.58M
1.62M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
11.07M
Differed Income Tax :
28.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
6.41M
Change in Working Capital :
- 22686.00K
Accounts Receivables:
3.41M
Other Working Capital:
- 18164.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.64M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
313.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 1002.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
6/30/21
2022
Q1
63.00M
-
63.00M
94.71M
-
36.48M
194.19M
29.92M
267.21M
74.75M
-
19.45M
39.05M
430.37M
-
624.56M
7.21M
12.00M
1.57M
57.15M
78.70M
155.06M
16.42M
10.69M
30.93M
-
186.00M
674.00K
131.48M
- 1962.0K
308.37M
June 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
585.25M
438.57M
624.56M
-
28.43M
- 34577.0K
-
- 5538.00K
- 6540.00K
-
-
-
-
- 2298.00K
- 2298.00K
-
- 8525.00K
70.05M
78.58M
313.00K
- 6540.00K
- 6227.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NXGN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$18.33
$13.59
$14.55
$15.58
$16.68