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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (XNAS:NXST) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NXST
Name:
NEXSTAR MEDIA GROUP, INC. (XNAS:NXST)
Sector:
490.00M
Industry:
Broadcasting
CEO:
Mr. Perry Sook
Total Employees:
11,160
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -257.91% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NEXSTAR MEDIA GROUP, INC.(NXST) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BROADCASTING INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
191.31
One Month Price Target:
$192.88
Six Month Price Target :
$200.75
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$210.2
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$190.49
Price Upper limit ($) :
$192.67
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$178.43
This week:
$162.51
This month :
$133.71
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
7.31B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
38.79M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
21.68%
-19.09%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$251.02
$223.27
$131.60
$159.35
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$214.23
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$208.31
$168.31
$174.31
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NXST
Sharpe Ratio:
3.95%
Comparison:
NXST, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 209.03% higher than the industry
& ratio is 73.36% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NXST
Daily returns:
0.14%
Weekly returns:
0.71%
Monthly returns:
2.82%
Yearly returns:
11.39%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 197.18% above industry average
Classification:
NXST, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.51
Statistical test of Returns:
NXST has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.35%
Weekly Volatility:
7.48%
Monthly Volatility:
14.97%
Yearly Volatility:
51.85%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.38%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -88.52% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.73%
Weekly VaR:
-15.05%
Monthly VaR:
-30.11%
How Much Can the price of
NXST
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$143.48
This translates to price declining to:
$28.70
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NXST is a 112.50% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 82.05% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 10.87% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NXST
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.47
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.827
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.17
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.504
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.811
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.211
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.164
Beta is 26.20% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.203
Beta is 22.11% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
31.38%
Sustainable growth rate is 99.76% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.206
Alpha is 705174.96% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1314% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NXST
Equity cost of capital:
0.132
Equity cost of capital is 16.00% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.53%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.83%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.03%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.03%
WACC is 1.82% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$122.30
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.54
Annual revenue growth rate is 117.51% above the industry average
EPS:
$20.59
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
55.89%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 123.08% higher than the Broadcasting industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$26.89
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 75.30%
Equity growth rate per share is 5.95% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$185.72
EBITDA per share
$51.81
Valuation Analysis Today of
NXST
P/E Ratio:
8.84
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
222.68
P/E ratio is -96.03% lower than main peers & is -34.16% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $276.44
NXST is -30.80% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $251.16
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $63.72
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.56
Price to sales ratio is -33.74% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.54
Price to free cash flow: 7.11
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
118.08%
Net income growth rate is 1424.62% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 4.19%
Dividend yeild: 1.67%
Previous Dividend: $0.90
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.90
Previous Dividend: $3.20
Expected next dividend best case: $1.02
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.78
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.66
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 7.80%
Expected next dividend payment date: 25/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/11/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 27/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 27/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 13/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 28/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-12--$0.90
2021-11-10--$0.70
2021-05-13--$0.70
2022-02-10--$0.90
2021-08-12--$0.70
2021-02-11--$0.70
Dividend growth rate is -33.35% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
247.11%
Net debt to equity ratio:
239.32%
Debt to assets ratio:
55.04%
Net debt to assets ratio:
53.30%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -19.79% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.18
Interest coverage ratio is 64.95% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-2.74%
Annual debt growth is -116% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.17%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.558
Statistical significance of correlation:
NXST has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.52
Stock price is 7.45% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.52
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.018
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.035
Kurtosis
8.399
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.057
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NXST
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
239%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
25.71%
Operating profit margin is 356.44% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
239%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.46%
Effective tax rate is -81.13% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
30.36%
Return on equity (ROE) is 901.84% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.76%
Return on assets (ROA) is 107.06% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.2x
Current Ratio:
2.02
Current ratio is 21.49% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
15.1
Cash conversion cycle is -56.02% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.48%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
425.1K
Each employee generates -53% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
180.1K
Each employee generates -31% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
79.3K
Each employee generates -12% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
43.9K
Each employee generates 139% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.0M
Each employee generates 139% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
NXST
ANGI INC. (XNAS:ANGI)
JOYY INC. (XNAS:YY)
IRIDIUM COMMUNICATIONS INC. (XNAS:IRDM)
Millicom International Cellular SA (XNAS:TIGO)
ADVANTAGE SOLUTIONS INC. (XNAS:ADV)
COGENT COMMUNICATIONS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CCOI)
LIBERTY LATIN AMERICA LTD. (XNAS:LILAK)
LIBERTY LATIN AMERICA LTD. (XNAS:LILA)
CARDLYTICS, INC. (XNAS:CDLX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�21%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
4.74B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.90B
2.84B
-
1.04B
1.03B
-
587.41M
1.62B
-
279.80M
589.11M
2.01B
1.22B
885.26M
1.14B
255.65M
885.26M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
144.60M
Differed Income Tax :
- 8300.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
13.10M
Change in Working Capital :
- 10300.00K
Accounts Receivables:
4.30M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
128.40M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
518.90M
Investments in PP&E:
- 28900.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
326.20M
-
326.20M
1.02B
-
139.10M
1.48B
1.50B
3.05B
5.55B
1.06B
-
441.00M
11.61B
-
13.09B
220.70M
99.00M
-
-
413.80M
733.50M
7.21B
510.10M
9.44B
-
10.17B
500.00K
2.42B
141.3M
355.20M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
3.52B
2.92B
13.08B
-
7.30B
7.0B
-
6.50M
- 22400.00K
- 159500.00K
-
- 167900.00K
- 37100.00K
3.30M
- 361200.00K
-
135.30M
341.80M
206.50M
518.90M
- 28900.00K
490.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NXST
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$211.25
$2,185.56
$2,401.34
$2,638.42
$2,898.91