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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Newmont Corporation (XNYS:NEM) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NEM
Name:
NEWMONT CORPORATION (XNYS:NEM)
Sector:
257.00M
Industry:
Gold
CEO:
Mr. Thomas Palmer
Total Employees:
14,400
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 0.00% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NEWMONT CORPORATION(NEM) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND GOLD INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
41.67
One Month Price Target:
$41.74
Six Month Price Target :
$42.08
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$42.49
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$41.52
Price Upper limit ($) :
$41.85
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$39.65
This week:
$37.16
This month :
$32.66
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
33.09B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
793.68M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.02%
-13.23%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$51.02
$46.74
$32.32
$36.60
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$45.35
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$44.44
$37.98
$38.90
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NEM
Sharpe Ratio:
0.92%
Comparison:
NEM, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 369.83% higher than the industry
& is -59.53% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NEM
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.15%
Monthly returns:
0.61%
Yearly returns:
3.14%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 134.43% above industry average
Classification:
NEM, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.42
Statistical test of Returns:
NEM has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.37%
Weekly Volatility:
5.30%
Monthly Volatility:
10.60%
Yearly Volatility:
36.72%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.72%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -27.42% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.84%
Weekly VaR:
-10.82%
Monthly VaR:
-21.63%
How Much Can the price of
NEM
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-74.93%
This translates to price declining to:
$33.85
This translates to price declining to:
$10.45
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NEM is a 52.66% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 30.79% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -3.10% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NEM
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.29
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
-
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.301
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.265
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.323
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.236
Beta is -76.21% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.475
Beta is -38.03% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
1.21%
Sustainable growth rate is -73.36% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.022
Alpha is -167.72% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 140% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NEM
Equity cost of capital:
0.052
Equity cost of capital is -19.32% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.29%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.22%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.33%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.33%
WACC is -19.24% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$15.59
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.53
Annual revenue growth rate is -46.10% below industry average
EPS:
$1.32
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-28.78%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -553.07% lower than the Gold industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.00
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 289.39%
Equity growth rate per share is 88.15% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$7.69
EBITDA per share
$5.94
Valuation Analysis Today of
NEM
P/E Ratio:
44.61
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
17.41
P/E ratio is 156.19% higher than main peers & is -38.15% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $95.19
NEM is -56.23% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.67
Price to sales ratio is -69.62% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.53
Price to free cash flow: 13.88
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
128.10%
Net income growth rate is -207.52% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 41.33%
Dividend yeild: 5.28%
Previous Dividend: $0.55
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.55
Previous Dividend: $2.20
Expected next dividend best case: $0.70
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.40
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.41
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 17.61%
Expected next dividend payment date: 14/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 31/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 16/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/02/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-01--$0.55
2021-12-08--$0.55
2021-06-02--$0.55
2022-03-09--$0.55
2021-09-08--$0.55
2021-03-03--$0.55
Dividend growth rate is -70.26% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
28.47%
Net debt to equity ratio:
9.04%
Debt to assets ratio:
15.30%
Net debt to assets ratio:
4.86%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -35.40% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
17.98
Interest coverage ratio is -62.11% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.74%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.238
Statistical significance of correlation:
NEM has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.245
Stock price is -2.51% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.245
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.036
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.049
Kurtosis
6.563
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.249
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NEM
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
143%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
15.57%
Operating profit margin is -46.27% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
143%
Effective Tax Rate:
108.46%
Effective tax rate is 270.15% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
4.92%
Return on equity (ROE) is -49.90% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.64%
Return on assets (ROA) is -63.74% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
2.92
Current ratio is -10.42% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-14.8
Cash conversion cycle is -181.69% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.71%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
859.2K
Each employee generates -93% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
327.2K
Each employee generates -97% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
73.3K
Each employee generates -99% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
17.8K
Each employee generates -101% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.3M
Each employee generates -101% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 26.23%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -82.95% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
NEM
SOUTHERN COPPER CORPORATION (XNYS:SCCO)
Dow Inc. (XNYS:DOW)
DuPont de Nemours, Inc. (XNYS:DD)
PPG INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNYS:PPG)
Nutrien Ltd. (XNYS:NTR)
INTERNATIONAL FLAVORS & FRAGRANCES INC. (XNYS:IFF)
CORTEVA, INC. (XNYS:CTVA)
FREEPORT-MCMORAN INC. (XNYS:FCX)
NUCOR CORPORATION (XNYS:NUE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�38%
Hold�29%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
12.37B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
7.94B
4.43B
167.00M
258.00M
258.00M
-
2.08B
2.51B
15.00M
262.00M
2.32B
4.71B
1.93B
1.06B
993.00M
1.08B
1.06B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
547.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 41000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
18.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 465000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 38000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
166.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
694.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 437000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 84000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 4000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
4.27B
72.00M
4.34B
413.00M
1.76B
546.00M
7.06B
24.07B
2.77B
-
3.34B
227.00M
2.45B
32.85B
-
39.91B
491.00M
104.00M
273.00M
-
1.82B
2.42B
6.11B
7.71B
15.87B
-
18.28B
1.28B
3.11B
- 12000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
10.45B
21.45B
39.73B
3.41B
6.21B
1.9B
9.00M
- 3000.00K
- 519000.00K
- 108000.00K
-
-
- 436000.00K
- 351000.00K
- 895000.00K
3.00M
- 717000.00K
4.38B
5.09B
694.00M
- 437000.00K
257.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NEM
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$41.13
$41.95
$42.77
$43.62
$44.48