_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Newmark Group, Inc. (XNAS:NMRK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NMRK
Name:
NEWMARK GROUP, INC. (XNAS:NMRK)
Sector:
493.49M
Industry:
Real Estate Services
CEO:
Mr. Barry Gosin
Total Employees:
6,200
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 45.99% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NEWMARK GROUP, INC.(NMRK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REAL ESTATE SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
10.18
One Month Price Target:
$10.28
Six Month Price Target :
$10.79
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$11.4
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$10.1
Price Upper limit ($) :
$10.28
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$9.11
This week:
$7.8
This month :
$5.42
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.72B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
179.10M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
66.%
-45.41%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$15.12
$12.86
$5.24
$7.50
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$12.12
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$11.63
$8.24
$8.73
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NMRK
Sharpe Ratio:
1.58%
Comparison:
NMRK, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -3.01% lower than the industry
& is -30.71% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NMRK
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.45%
Monthly returns:
1.80%
Yearly returns:
16.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 31.42% above industry average
Classification:
NMRK, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.99
Statistical test of Returns:
NMRK has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.14%
Weekly Volatility:
11.49%
Monthly Volatility:
22.98%
Yearly Volatility:
79.61%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.60%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -88.39% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.46%
Weekly VaR:
-23.40%
Monthly VaR:
-46.79%
How Much Can the price of
NMRK
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-40%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$6.07
This translates to price declining to:
$1.53
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NMRK is a 230.27% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 182.94% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 46.51% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NMRK
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.78
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.084
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.533
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.036
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.239
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.277
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.44
Beta is 23.91% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.462
Beta is 22.02% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
62.03%
Sustainable growth rate is 155.83% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.062
Alpha is 90.51% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 396% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NMRK
Equity cost of capital:
0.154
Equity cost of capital is 16.75% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.93%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.83%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.45%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.45%
WACC is 14.60% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$17.20
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.13
Annual revenue growth rate is -77.38% below industry average
EPS:
$3.55
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
86.06%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 340.21% higher than the Real Estate Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.69
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is -262.32% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$6.36
EBITDA per share
$6.04
Valuation Analysis Today of
NMRK
P/E Ratio:
6.25
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
67.56
P/E ratio is -90.75% lower than main peers & is -79.24% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $106.87
NMRK is -90.47% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $291.21
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $1.52
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.59
Price to sales ratio is -88.68% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.13
Price to free cash flow: 14.82
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
517.57%
Net income growth rate is 1227.67% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 0.26%
Dividend yeild: 0.59%
Previous Dividend: $0.03
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.03
Previous Dividend: $0.06
Expected next dividend best case: $0.06
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.00
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.03
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 11.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 27/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 31/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 16/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 28/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-13--$0.03
2021-11-18--$0.01
2021-05-25--$0.01
2022-02-28--$0.01
2021-08-19--$0.01
2021-03-09--$0.01
Dividend growth rate is -72.61% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
90.40%
Net debt to equity ratio:
105.85%
Debt to assets ratio:
25.65%
Net debt to assets ratio:
30.03%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -52.15% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
33.27
Interest coverage ratio is 18.60% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 66.79%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.509
Statistical significance of correlation:
NMRK has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.544
Stock price is -6.32% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.544
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.036
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.108
Kurtosis
51.188
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
2.494
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NMRK
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
39.06%
Operating profit margin is 286.51% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
20.19%
Effective tax rate is 6.32% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
57.00%
Return on equity (ROE) is 387.51% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
16.17%
Return on assets (ROA) is 235.03% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
1.19
Current ratio is -83.92% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
72.9
Cash conversion cycle is 895.90% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.35%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
496.9K
Each employee generates -44% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
174.5K
Each employee generates -35% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
115.8K
Each employee generates 50% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
79.6K
Each employee generates -168% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
436.5K
Each employee generates -168% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
NMRK
REDFIN CORPORATION (XNAS:RDFN)
SABRA HEALTH CARE REIT, INC. (XNAS:SBRA)
POTLATCHDELTIC CORPORATION (XNAS:PCH)
UNITI GROUP INC. (XNAS:UNIT)
EXP WORLD HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:EXPI)
RETAIL OPPORTUNITY INVESTMENTS CORP. (XNAS:ROIC)
CARETRUST REIT, INC. (XNYS:CTRE)
MEDALIST DIVERSIFIED REIT, INC. (XNAS:MDRRP)
INDUSTRIAL LOGISTICS PROPERTIES TRUST (XNAS:ILPT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�4%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.08B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
984.47M
-
2.87B
2.87B
-
160.52M
3.03B
-
32.53M
95.23M
1.08B
1.20B
717.98M
1.17B
236.38M
717.98M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
35.48M
Differed Income Tax :
- 94.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
16.90M
Change in Working Capital :
- 124219.00K
Accounts Receivables:
36.66M
Other Working Capital:
- 108570.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
573.38M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
502.16M
Investments in PP&E:
- 8669.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 2355.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
442.79M
-
442.79M
548.22M
-
743.06M
1.73B
734.27M
656.52M
632.86M
112.28M
70.29M
500.16M
2.71B
-
4.44B
222.13M
637.41M
111.80M
-
595.75M
1.46B
1.14B
228.51M
1.37B
-
2.82B
2.17M
1.08B
- 2975.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
3.03B
1.26B
4.08B
-
1.78B
1.3B
437.82M
-
426.80M
- 2290018.00K
-
- 30893.00K
- 1893.00K
1.65B
- 677492.00K
-
251.46M
517.96M
266.50M
502.16M
- 8669.00K
493.49M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NMRK
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$11.46
$144.48
$161.80
$181.20
$202.93