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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Newell Brands Inc. (XNAS:NWL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NWL
Name:
NEWELL BRANDS INC. (XNAS:NWL)
Sector:
- 342000.00K
Industry:
Household & Personal Products
CEO:
Mr. Ravichandra Saligram
Total Employees:
32,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 6.87% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NEWELL BRANDS INC.(NWL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND HOUSEHOLD & PERSONAL PRODUCTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
17.52
One Month Price Target:
$17.6
Six Month Price Target :
$17.98
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$18.43
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$17.44
Price Upper limit ($) :
$17.61
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$16.51
This week:
$15.27
This month :
$13.01
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
7.06B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
413.60M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.1%
-17.09%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$22.20
$20.06
$12.84
$14.98
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$19.36
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$18.91
$15.67
$16.13
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NWL
Sharpe Ratio:
0.66%
Comparison:
NWL, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -44.91% lower than the industry
& is -70.96% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NWL
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.14%
Monthly returns:
0.55%
Yearly returns:
9.25%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -28.73% below industry average
Classification:
NWL, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.79
Statistical test of Returns:
NWL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.81%
Weekly Volatility:
6.29%
Monthly Volatility:
12.58%
Yearly Volatility:
43.59%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.77%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -37.07% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.75%
Weekly VaR:
-12.86%
Monthly VaR:
-25.72%
How Much Can the price of
NWL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-89.09%
This translates to price declining to:
$13.59
This translates to price declining to:
$1.91
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NWL is a 81.52% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 55.50% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 13.87% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NWL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.77
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.77
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.089
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.36
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.749
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.82
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.768
Beta is 0.83% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.835
Beta is -7.27% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
4.52%
Sustainable growth rate is -84.40% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.019
Alpha is -589.45% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -118% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NWL
Equity cost of capital:
0.085
Equity cost of capital is -4.69% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.94%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.48%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.54%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.54%
WACC is 5.44% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$25.84
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.82
Annual revenue growth rate is 88.78% above the industry average
EPS:
$1.68
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.76
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 0.95%
Equity growth rate per share is -90.64% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$13.08
EBITDA per share
$3.41
Valuation Analysis Today of
NWL
P/E Ratio:
10.25
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
21.1
P/E ratio is -51.42% lower than main peers & is -61.24% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $44.43
NWL is -60.56% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $27.55
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $10.88
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.68
Price to sales ratio is -81.39% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.82
Price to free cash flow: 23.01
Price to free cash flow ratio is -45.36% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-109.21%
Net income growth rate is -104.19% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 13.95%
Dividend yeild: 5.25%
Previous Dividend: $0.23
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.23
Previous Dividend: $0.92
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.23
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/03/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 31/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/05/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-27--$0.23
2021-11-29--$0.23
2021-05-27--$0.23
2022-02-25--$0.23
2021-08-30--$0.23
2021-02-25--$0.23
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
135.95%
Net debt to equity ratio:
130.53%
Debt to assets ratio:
38.09%
Net debt to assets ratio:
36.57%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -44.50% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.69
Interest coverage ratio is -59.61% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-13.24%
Annual debt growth is -129% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.02%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.606
Statistical significance of correlation:
NWL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.556
Stock price is 8.97% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.556
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.005
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.008
Kurtosis
6.754
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.095
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NWL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
124%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
9.08%
Operating profit margin is -212.27% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
124%
Effective Tax Rate:
15.55%
Effective tax rate is -26.86% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
18.02%
Return on equity (ROE) is -59.11% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.05%
Return on assets (ROA) is 24.22% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
1.39
Current ratio is -48.59% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-7.7
Cash conversion cycle is -107.33% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.95%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
334.0K
Each employee generates -50% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
44.1K
Each employee generates -69% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
22.4K
Each employee generates -74% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 10.7K
Each employee generates -537% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
306.0K
Each employee generates -537% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
NWL
CASEY'S GENERAL STORES, INC. (XNAS:CASY)
Innovator Lddrd Alloc PB (BATS:BUFF)
PILGRIM'S PRIDE CORPORATION (XNAS:PPC)
HELEN OF TROY LIMITED (XNAS:HELE)
CHS Inc. (XNAS:CHSCN)
Oatly Group AB (XNAS:OTLY)
LANCASTER COLONY CORPORATION (XNAS:LANC)
BEYOND MEAT, INC. (XNAS:BYND)
SANDERSON FARMS, INC. (XNAS:SAFM)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�29%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
10.69B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
7.38B
3.31B
-
-
2.26B
-
523.00M
2.78B
-
248.00M
315.00M
1.41B
971.00M
717.00M
849.00M
132.00M
717.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
76.00M
Differed Income Tax :
326.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
14.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 790000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
14.00M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 132000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 272000.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
620.00M
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
344.00M
-
344.00M
1.42B
2.30B
349.00M
4.41B
1.74B
3.49B
3.05B
-
797.00M
725.00M
9.79B
-
14.20B
1.65B
128.00M
54.00M
-
1.40B
3.18B
5.41B
910.00M
7.04B
-
10.22B
441.00M
- 2368000.00K
- 854000.0K
6.76B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
10.17B
3.98B
14.20B
-
5.54B
5.2B
-
- 61000.00K
559.00M
- 1000.00K
-
- 275000.00K
- 100000.00K
- 17000.00K
- 393000.00K
8.00M
- 98000.00K
379.00M
477.00M
- 272000.00K
- 70000.00K
- 342000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NWL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$18.52
$25.97
$27.32
$28.74
$30.24