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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
New York Community Bancorp, Inc. (XNYS:NYCB) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NYCB
Name:
NEW YORK COMMUNITY BANCORP, INC. (XNYS:NYCB)
Sector:
185.00M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Joseph Ficalora
Total Employees:
2,815
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -484.07% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NEW YORK COMMUNITY BANCORP, INC.(NYCB) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
9.76
One Month Price Target:
$9.81
Six Month Price Target :
$10.08
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$10.41
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$9.72
Price Upper limit ($) :
$9.8
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$9.28
This week:
$8.69
This month :
$7.62
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.38B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
466.15M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.72%
-8.03%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$11.98
$10.97
$7.54
$8.55
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$10.64
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$10.43
$8.87
$9.09
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NYCB
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.34%
Comparison:
NYCB, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -127.79% lower than the industry
& is -114.98% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NYCB
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
0.00%
Monthly returns:
0.01%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -98.48% below industry average
Classification:
NYCB, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.72
Statistical test of Returns:
NYCB has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.39%
Weekly Volatility:
5.34%
Monthly Volatility:
10.68%
Yearly Volatility:
37.01%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.38%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -84.01% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.91%
Weekly VaR:
-10.97%
Monthly VaR:
-21.94%
How Much Can the price of
NYCB
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-76.00%
This translates to price declining to:
$7.87
This translates to price declining to:
$2.34
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NYCB is a 54.85% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 32.66% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -16.37% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NYCB
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.99
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.71
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.004
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.152
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.535
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.568
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.138
Beta is -12.99% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 2.79% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
4.05%
Sustainable growth rate is -55.58% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.098
Alpha is -941.97% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -622% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NYCB
Equity cost of capital:
0.099
Equity cost of capital is 1.89% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
1.52%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.10
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.66
Annual revenue growth rate is -9.81% below industry average
EPS:
$1.21
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
15.94%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 32.58% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.74
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -9.03%
Equity growth rate per share is -123.31% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$2.62
Valuation Analysis Today of
NYCB
P/E Ratio:
7.78
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
9.35
P/E ratio is -16.79% lower than main peers & is -37.28% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $15.01
NYCB is -35.00% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $19.75
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $6.84
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.14
Price to sales ratio is -26.48% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.66
Price to free cash flow: 13.10
Price to free cash flow ratio is 41.95% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
48.62%
Net income growth rate is -11.71% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 13.21%
Dividend yeild: 6.97%
Previous Dividend: $0.17
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.17
Previous Dividend: $0.68
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.17
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 17/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 26/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 19/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/09/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 27/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-06--$0.17
2021-11-04--$0.17
2021-05-06--$0.17
2022-02-04--$0.17
2021-08-05--$0.17
2021-02-04--$0.17
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
745.07%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-41.97%
Debt to assets ratio:
88.17%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-4.75%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -47.05% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.11
Interest coverage ratio is 275.70% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
8.11%
Annual debt growth is 2460% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 100.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.541
Statistical significance of correlation:
NYCB has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 7.97% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.028
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.039
Kurtosis
4.511
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.787
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NYCB
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
181%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
20.39%
Operating profit margin is -43.08% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
181%
Effective Tax Rate:
25.83%
Effective tax rate is 19.86% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
8.66%
Return on equity (ROE) is -27.45% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.98%
Return on assets (ROA) is -57.46% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
8.5x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 12.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.17%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
514.0K
Each employee generates 35% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
433.6K
Each employee generates 92% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
212.4K
Each employee generates 50% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
65.7K
Each employee generates -21% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
861.8K
Each employee generates -21% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
NYCB
PRIMERICA, INC. (XNYS:PRI)
FS KKR CAPITAL CORP. (XNYS:FSK)
CCIV
WEBSTER FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNYS:WBS)
UNUM GROUP (XNYS:UNM)
OWL ROCK CAPITAL CORPORATION (XNYS:ORCC)
Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA (XNYS:AVAL)
STERLING BANCORP (XNYS:STL)
HAGERTY, INC. (XNYS:HGTY)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�38%
Sell�13%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.45B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
80.00M
687.00M
-
350.00M
350.00M
-
516.00M
652.00M
1.70B
392.00M
19.64M
1.22B
295.00M
598.00M
817.00M
211.00M
598.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
4.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 8000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
7.00M
Change in Working Capital :
27.00M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
185.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 35000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
2.90B
42.86B
45.76B
-
-
-
45.76B
266.00M
2.43B
-
-
-
- 266000.00K
2.43B
17.67B
61.01B
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
54.10B
54.10B
5.00M
809.00M
- 284000.0K
6.38B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
134.00M
6.91B
61.01B
-
-
- 2900000.0K
198.00M
- 1231000.00K
- 1068000.00K
- 1075000.00K
-
-
- 79000.00K
2.73B
1.57B
-
689.00M
2.90B
2.21B
185.00M
-
185.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NYCB
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$12.52
$13.35
$14.24
$15.19
$16.20