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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
New Fortress Energy Inc. (XNAS:NFE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NFE
Name:
NEW FORTRESS ENERGY INC. (XNAS:NFE)
Sector:
- 74839.00K
Industry:
Utilities�Regulated Gas
CEO:
Mr. Wesley Robert Edens
Total Employees:
671
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -21.27% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NEW FORTRESS ENERGY INC.(NFE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND UTILITIES�REGULATED GAS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
55.54
One Month Price Target:
$56.02
Six Month Price Target :
$58.4
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$61.27
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$55.27
Price Upper limit ($) :
$56.11
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$50.62
This week:
$44.55
This month :
$33.56
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
11.55B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
207.56M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
27.38%
-15.74%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$78.31
$67.61
$32.77
$43.47
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$64.13
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$61.84
$46.92
$49.24
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NFE
Sharpe Ratio:
6.02%
Comparison:
NFE, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 188.41% higher than the industry
& ratio is 164.02% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NFE
Daily returns:
0.28%
Weekly returns:
1.38%
Monthly returns:
5.52%
Yearly returns:
20.89%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 217.39% above industry average
Classification:
NFE, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.37
Statistical test of Returns:
NFE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.44%
Weekly Volatility:
9.94%
Monthly Volatility:
19.87%
Yearly Volatility:
68.84%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.96%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -10.82% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.85%
Weekly VaR:
-19.79%
Monthly VaR:
-39.58%
How Much Can the price of
NFE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-32%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$37.87
This translates to price declining to:
$8.33
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NFE is a 179.33% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 139.30% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 67.81% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NFE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.53
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.181
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.671
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.461
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.966
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.478
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.492
Beta is 211.67% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.86
Beta is 78.46% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.526
Alpha is 344.26% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 3351% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NFE
Equity cost of capital:
0.137
Equity cost of capital is 51.12% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.11%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.75%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.33%
Overall debt rating:
Lowest medium B grade (second lowest)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.33%
WACC is 40.06% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$11.35
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.97
Annual revenue growth rate is 188.55% above the industry average
EPS:
$1.74
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$20.11
EBITDA per share
$3.32
Valuation Analysis Today of
NFE
P/E Ratio:
57.67
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
46.65
P/E ratio is 23.61% higher than main peers & is 339.12% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $22.85
NFE is 143.07% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $13.95
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $2.93
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.89
Price to sales ratio is 43.52% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.97
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-100.00%
Net income growth rate is -66.21% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 7.44%
Dividend yeild: 0.72%
Previous Dividend: $0.10
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.10
Previous Dividend: $0.40
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.10
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 26/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/12/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 28/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 14/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-13--$0.10
2021-12-06--$0.10
2021-05-28--$0.10
2022-03-17--$0.10
2021-09-03--$0.10
2021-03-25--$0.10
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
197.44%
Net debt to equity ratio:
197.68%
Debt to assets ratio:
56.65%
Net debt to assets ratio:
56.72%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 7.44% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
2.35
Interest coverage ratio is -57.15% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
183.38%
Annual debt growth is 120% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.88%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.375
Statistical significance of correlation:
NFE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.552
Stock price is -32.07% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.552
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.01
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.025
Kurtosis
4.693
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.63
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NFE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
186%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
18.15%
Operating profit margin is 105.60% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
186%
Effective Tax Rate:
-17.78%
Effective tax rate is -176.09% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
15.12%
Return on equity (ROE) is 77.34% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.34%
Return on assets (ROA) is 62.49% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.3x
Current Ratio:
1.05
Current ratio is 12.08% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
39
Cash conversion cycle is -51.07% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.28%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
3.5M
Each employee generates 113% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
1.0M
Each employee generates 99% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
476.2K
Each employee generates 95% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 111.5K
Each employee generates 24% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
10.1M
Each employee generates 24% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
NFE
ATLANTICA SUSTAINABLE INFRASTRUCTURE PLC (XNAS:AY)
ALLIANT ENERGY CORPORATION (XNAS:LNT)
MGE ENERGY, INC. (XNAS:MGEE)
MIDDLESEX WATER COMPANY (XNAS:MSEX)
THE YORK WATER COMPANY (XNAS:YORW)
CADIZ INC. (XNAS:CDZI)
SPKEP
ARTESIAN RESOURCES CORPORATION (XNAS:ARTNA)
GLOBAL WATER RESOURCES, INC. (XNAS:GWRS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.36B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.18B
1.18B
-
-
186.18M
-
1.13B
1.32B
10.30M
292.50M
124.24M
688.14M
427.64M
319.52M
270.66M
- 48121.00K
319.52M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
34.85M
Differed Income Tax :
- 58769.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
880.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 38248.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 65514.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
114.38M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
156.17M
-
156.17M
277.20M
54.27M
118.68M
606.33M
4.42B
760.14M
135.65M
1.35B
6.05M
91.42M
6.76B
-
7.37B
81.13M
161.22M
10.48M
18.93M
317.06M
578.33M
4.17B
57.50M
4.47B
-
5.05B
2.08M
105.87M
116.8M
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.22B
2.11B
7.16B
-
4.33B
4.2B
-
- 189221.00K
- 189221.00K
- 123669.00K
-
-
- 23773.00K
184.28M
36.84M
12.98M
- 25024.00K
239.01M
264.03M
114.38M
- 189221.00K
- 74839.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NFE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$61.58
$92.30
$101.82
$112.32
$123.90