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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Netlist, Inc. (OTCM:NLST) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NLST
Name:
NETLIST, INC. (OTCM:NLST)
Sector:
996.00K
Industry:
Semiconductors
CEO:
Mr. Chun Hong
Total Employees:
120
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -21.11% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NETLIST, INC.(NLST) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SEMICONDUCTORS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
2.944
One Month Price Target:
$2.97
Six Month Price Target :
$3.07
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$3.2
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$2.92
Price Upper limit ($) :
$3.01
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$2.4
This week:
$1.72
This month :
$.5
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
657.70M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
231.58M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
148.07%
-52.19%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$5.48
$4.28
$0.41
$1.61
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$3.89
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$3.64
$1.99
$2.25
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NLST
Sharpe Ratio:
7.07%
Comparison:
NLST, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 128.33% higher than the industry
& ratio is 210.18% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NLST
Daily returns:
0.67%
Weekly returns:
3.36%
Monthly returns:
13.42%
Yearly returns:
31.95%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 404.18% above industry average
Classification:
NLST, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.05
Statistical test of Returns:
NLST has yielded a higher return than the market, the results are statistically significant
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
9.37%
Weekly Volatility:
20.95%
Monthly Volatility:
41.89%
Yearly Volatility:
145.11%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.51%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -62.57% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-18.57%
Weekly VaR:
-41.52%
Monthly VaR:
-83.03%
How Much Can the price of
NLST
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-66%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$1.01
This translates to price declining to:
$0.44
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NLST is a 486.03% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 402.05% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 163.94% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NLST
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.32
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.322
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.87
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.301
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.425
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.627
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.504
Beta is -12.44% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.41
Beta is -6.62% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
59.07%
Sustainable growth rate is 113.63% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
1.489
Alpha is 678.12% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 9478% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NLST
Equity cost of capital:
0.122
Equity cost of capital is -4.99% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
12.02%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.96%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.13%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.13%
WACC is 9.93% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.61
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
13.59
Annual revenue growth rate is -290.20% below industry average
EPS:
$0.01
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.05
-
-
Debt per share
$0.01
EBITDA per share
$0.04
Valuation Analysis Today of
NLST
P/E Ratio:
369.09
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
139.7
P/E ratio is 164.20% higher than main peers & is 789.87% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $0.41
NLST is 609.80% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.82
Price to sales ratio is -40.64% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
13.59
Price to free cash flow: 64.52
Price to free cash flow ratio is -6.65% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-80.67%
Net income growth rate is 40.84% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
3.97%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-60.65%
Debt to assets ratio:
2.25%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-34.39%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -94.22% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
36.33
Interest coverage ratio is 10.83% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-8.42%
Annual debt growth is -109% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 8.74%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.074
Statistical significance of correlation:
NLST does not have a has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.627
Stock price is -88.23% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.627
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.019
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.103
Kurtosis
98.005
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
6.666
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NLST
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
83%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
6.65%
Operating profit margin is -71.75% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
83%
Effective Tax Rate:
69.01%
Effective tax rate is 357.29% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
5.93%
Return on equity (ROE) is -79.25% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.36%
Return on assets (ROA) is -74.45% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
2.35
Current ratio is -42.21% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-53.4
Cash conversion cycle is -196.75% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
22.92%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.2M
Each employee generates 90% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
85.1K
Each employee generates -63% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
24.8K
Each employee generates -85% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
8.3K
Each employee generates -70% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
30.8K
Each employee generates -70% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 23.92%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 68.93% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
NLST
AKOUSTIS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:AKTS)
ATERIAN, INC (XNAS:ATER)
DZS Inc. (XNAS:DZSI)
Mogo Inc. (XNAS:MOGO)
PRIORITY TECHNOLOGY HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:PRTH)
ITURAN LOCATION AND CONTROL LTD. (XNAS:ITRN)
CALAMP CORP. (XNAS:CAMP)
IBEX Limited (XNAS:IBEX)
VIOMI TECHNOLOGY CO., LTD (XNAS:VIOT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�13%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/2/22
Revenue:
141.31M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
92.58M
50.76M
8.57M
24.74M
32.79M
-
-
41.37M
-
281.00K
175.00K
10.21M
9.39M
2.98M
9.60M
6.63M
2.98M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
81.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
682.00K
Change in Working Capital :
6.16M
Accounts Receivables:
6.95M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
167.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
1.22M
Investments in PP&E:
- 221.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/2/22
2022
Q1
37.53M
-
37.53M
5.78M
19.50M
21.97M
84.78M
3.41M
-
-
-
-
287.00K
3.70M
-
88.47M
28.96M
5.11M
-
-
2.05M
36.13M
1.99M
187.00K
2.18M
-
38.31M
232.00K
- 195927.00K
-
245.86M
April 2, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
168.27M
50.17M
88.47M
-
7.10M
- 30428.0K
-
-
- 221.00K
- 191.00K
1.77M
-
-
- 2721.00K
- 1145.00K
-
- 149.00K
58.33M
58.48M
1.22M
- 221.00K
996.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NLST
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$3.27
$3.56
$3.88
$4.22
$4.59