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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Neogenomics, Inc. (XNAS:NEO) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NEO
Name:
NEOGENOMICS, INC. (XNAS:NEO)
Sector:
- 37259.00K
Industry:
Diagnostics & Research
CEO:
Mr. Douglas VanOort
Total Employees:
2,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -372.38% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NEOGENOMICS, INC.(NEO) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DIAGNOSTICS & RESEARCH INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
9.8
One Month Price Target:
$9.85
Six Month Price Target :
$10.1
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$10.41
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$9.73
Price Upper limit ($) :
$9.86
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$8.96
This week:
$7.91
This month :
$6.02
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.27B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
125.80M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
21.58%
-29.79%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$13.72
$11.95
$5.88
$7.65
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$11.38
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$11.00
$8.22
$8.60
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NEO
Sharpe Ratio:
-1.53%
Comparison:
NEO, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -160.68% lower than the industry
& is -167.04% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NEO
Daily returns:
-0.05%
Weekly returns:
-0.27%
Monthly returns:
-1.10%
Yearly returns:
27.92%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -147.14% below industry average
Classification:
NEO, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.31
Statistical test of Returns:
NEO has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.17%
Weekly Volatility:
9.32%
Monthly Volatility:
18.64%
Yearly Volatility:
64.57%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.43%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -41.77% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.61%
Weekly VaR:
-19.26%
Monthly VaR:
-38.52%
How Much Can the price of
NEO
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-35%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$6.40
This translates to price declining to:
$1.47
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NEO is a 171.90% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 132.94% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 7.95% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NEO
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.93
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.793
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.121
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.649
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.32
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.919
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.169
Beta is -20.83% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.181
Beta is -21.65% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
5.11%
Sustainable growth rate is -90.33% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.227
Alpha is -235.83% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1442% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NEO
Equity cost of capital:
0.095
Equity cost of capital is -15.58% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.65%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.42%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.34%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.34%
WACC is -25.89% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.86
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.15
Annual revenue growth rate is -79.02% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.33
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$4.82
EBITDA per share
$0.13
Valuation Analysis Today of
NEO
P/E Ratio:
54.14
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
433.68
P/E ratio is -87.52% lower than main peers & is 45.63% higher than the industry
-
NEO is -179.88% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.54
Price to sales ratio is -73.31% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.15
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-325.66%
Net income growth rate is 42.48% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
56.43%
Net debt to equity ratio:
28.59%
Debt to assets ratio:
33.16%
Net debt to assets ratio:
16.80%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -31.77% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.38
Interest coverage ratio is -122.73% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
254.01%
Annual debt growth is 145% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.06%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.508
Statistical significance of correlation:
NEO has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.488
Stock price is 4.14% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.488
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.066
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.16
Kurtosis
6.821
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.386
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NEO
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
151%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-32.03%
Operating profit margin is -71.53% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
151%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.33%
Effective tax rate is 26.77% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-3.32%
Return on equity (ROE) is -115.78% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-1.95%
Return on assets (ROA) is -99.28% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
7.93
Current ratio is 59.64% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
69.6
Cash conversion cycle is 40.16% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-33.96%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
243.0K
Each employee generates -35% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
8.3K
Each employee generates -72% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 17.8K
Each employee generates -211% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 18.6K
Each employee generates 756% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
589.2K
Each employee generates 756% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 165.80%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -9309.14% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
NEO
SCHRODINGER, INC. (XNAS:SDGR)
PT INOCYCLE TECHNOLOGY GROUP Tbk (XIDX:INOV)
INARI MEDICAL, INC. (XNAS:NARI)
THE ENSIGN GROUP, INC. (XNAS:ENSG)
PACIFIC BIOSCIENCES OF CALIFORNIA, INC. (XNAS:PACB)
ABCAM PLC (XNAS:ABCM)
Galapagos NV (XNAS:GLPG)
CBPO
INTELLIA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:NTLA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�17%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
485.97M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
302.25M
183.72M
27.13M
247.12M
312.26M
65.14M
-
339.39M
-
2.60M
61.10M
16.60M
- 155675.00K
- 35642.00K
- 47099.00K
- 11457.00K
- 35642.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
16.89M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
12.10M
Change in Working Capital :
- 11057.00K
Accounts Receivables:
1.33M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.44M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 29040.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 8219.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 16167.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
305.90M
175.53M
481.43M
110.80M
23.84M
35.03M
651.10M
210.90M
527.12M
433.84M
-
-
6.60M
1.18B
-
1.83B
20.48M
6.58M
-
6.12M
48.89M
82.07M
606.62M
14.14M
672.47M
-
754.54M
125.00K
- 64245.00K
- 3009.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
641.64M
1.08B
1.83B
-
613.20M
307.3M
36.44M
-
12.05M
- 346.00K
6.40M
-
-
-
6.06M
-
- 10931.00K
305.90M
316.83M
- 29040.00K
- 8219.00K
- 37259.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NEO
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$10.44
$11.09
$11.78
$12.52
$13.29