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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Neogen Corporation (XNAS:NEOG) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NEOG
Name:
NEOGEN CORPORATION (XNAS:NEOG)
Sector:
21.92M
Industry:
Diagnostics & Research
CEO:
Mr. John Adent
Total Employees:
2,108
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -33.47% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NEOGEN CORPORATION(NEOG) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DIAGNOSTICS & RESEARCH INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
18.03
One Month Price Target:
$18.09
Six Month Price Target :
$18.4
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$18.77
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$17.95
Price Upper limit ($) :
$18.09
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$17.13
This week:
$16.02
This month :
$14.02
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.66B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
216.11M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.57%
-13.13%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$22.20
$20.33
$13.86
$15.73
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$19.72
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$19.32
$16.33
$16.74
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NEOG
Sharpe Ratio:
-3.00%
Comparison:
NEOG, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -219.11% lower than the industry
& is -231.59% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NEOG
Daily returns:
-0.06%
Weekly returns:
-0.31%
Monthly returns:
-1.26%
Yearly returns:
27.92%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -154.11% below industry average
Classification:
NEOG, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.57
Statistical test of Returns:
NEOG has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.39%
Weekly Volatility:
5.35%
Monthly Volatility:
10.70%
Yearly Volatility:
37.08%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.91%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 63.29% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.98%
Weekly VaR:
-11.13%
Monthly VaR:
-22.26%
How Much Can the price of
NEOG
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-77.12%
This translates to price declining to:
$14.35
This translates to price declining to:
$4.12
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NEOG is a 57.14% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 34.62% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -38.01% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NEOG
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.61
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.756
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.069
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.556
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.586
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.67
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.858
Beta is -29.15% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.181
Beta is -48.51% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
6.77%
Sustainable growth rate is -87.18% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.224
Alpha is -234.45% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1427% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NEOG
Equity cost of capital:
0.073
Equity cost of capital is -34.92% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.68%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$2.38
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.56
Annual revenue growth rate is -89.79% below industry average
EPS:
$0.45
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-7.91%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -129.47% lower than the Diagnostics & Research industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.46
-
-
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$0.40
Valuation Analysis Today of
NEOG
P/E Ratio:
40.31
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
307.81
P/E ratio is -86.90% lower than main peers & is 8.44% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $16.73
NEOG is 7.77% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
7.57
Price to sales ratio is -20.31% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.56
Price to free cash flow: 38.90
Price to free cash flow ratio is 91.29% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-7.17%
Net income growth rate is -96.86% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
11.84%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-8.33%
Debt to assets ratio:
10.59%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-7.65%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -78.22% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
272.37
Interest coverage ratio is -1071.04% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.472
Statistical significance of correlation:
NEOG has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.488
Stock price is -3.17% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.488
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.052
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.072
Kurtosis
5.481
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.068
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NEOG
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
183%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
11.83%
Operating profit margin is -110.51% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
183%
Effective Tax Rate:
20.08%
Effective tax rate is 4.63% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
5.74%
Return on equity (ROE) is -72.67% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.27%
Return on assets (ROA) is -101.95% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
12
Current ratio is 141.46% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
56.6
Cash conversion cycle is 13.99% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
3.44%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
244.1K
Each employee generates -34% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
40.6K
Each employee generates 35% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
23.3K
Each employee generates 46% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
10.4K
Each employee generates -578% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
153.2K
Each employee generates -578% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 10.15%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -663.71% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
NEOG
QUIDELORTHO CORPORATION (XNAS:QDEL)
IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:IONS)
SHOCKWAVE MEDICAL, INC. (XNAS:SWAV)
Galapagos NV (XNAS:GLPG)
Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. (XNAS:TNDM)
PACIFIC BIOSCIENCES OF CALIFORNIA, INC. (XNAS:PACB)
ADAPTIVE BIOTECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION (XNAS:ADPT)
NEOGENOMICS, INC. (XNAS:NEO)
SCHRODINGER, INC. (XNAS:SDGR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�29%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
2/28/22
Revenue:
514.49M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
278.79M
235.71M
17.30M
73.84M
157.56M
83.73M
-
174.86M
784.00K
314.00K
23.77M
85.53M
60.85M
49.11M
61.44M
12.34M
49.11M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
5.68M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
1.69M
Change in Working Capital :
- 1239.00K
Accounts Receivables:
4.04M
Other Working Capital:
558.36M
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
23.21M
Investments in PP&E:
- 1295.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 136748.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
8/31/21
2022
Q1
71.28M
329.60M
400.88M
87.29M
102.11M
18.84M
609.12M
101.92M
130.01M
89.03M
-
-
2.02M
322.98M
-
932.11M
22.41M
-
4.52M
-
28.35M
50.76M
-
4.15M
25.98M
-
76.74M
17.20M
556.68M
- 16204.0K
297.69M
August 31, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
453.65M
855.36M
932.11M
-
-
- 71283.0K
112.64M
-
- 25407.00K
-
-
-
-
1.05M
1.05M
- 3170.00K
- 4319.00K
71.28M
75.60M
23.21M
- 1295.00K
21.92M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NEOG
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$18.86
$49.75
$51.78
$53.90
$56.10