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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ncr Corporation (XNYS:NCR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NCR
Name:
NCR CORPORATION (XNYS:NCR)
Sector:
- 46000.00K
Industry:
Information Technology Services
CEO:
Mr. Michael Hayford
Total Employees:
38,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -90.26% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NCR CORPORATION(NCR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
30.54
One Month Price Target:
$30.8
Six Month Price Target :
$32.09
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$33.64
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$30.35
Price Upper limit ($) :
$30.77
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$28.
This week:
$24.87
This month :
$19.2
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.09B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
136.90M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
26.91%
-29.28%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$42.31
$36.91
$18.77
$24.17
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$35.15
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$34.00
$25.92
$27.08
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NCR
Sharpe Ratio:
1.61%
Comparison:
NCR, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -11.18% lower than the industry
& is -29.38% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NCR
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.37%
Monthly returns:
1.49%
Yearly returns:
14.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 23.91% above industry average
Classification:
NCR, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.23
Statistical test of Returns:
NCR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.08%
Weekly Volatility:
9.12%
Monthly Volatility:
18.25%
Yearly Volatility:
63.21%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.36%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -91.28% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.30%
Weekly VaR:
-18.57%
Monthly VaR:
-37.14%
How Much Can the price of
NCR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-32%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$20.77
This translates to price declining to:
$4.58
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NCR is a 162.14% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 124.57% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 34.48% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NCR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.51
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.005
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.422
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.965
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.265
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.177
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.531
Beta is -1.25% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.209
Beta is 25.09% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
8.18%
Sustainable growth rate is -94.50% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.044
Alpha is 45.68% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 279% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NCR
Equity cost of capital:
0.135
Equity cost of capital is 18.18% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.62%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.29%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.39%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.39%
WACC is -0.34% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$54.62
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.61
Annual revenue growth rate is -96.77% below industry average
EPS:
$0.09
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-46.18%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -1461.30% lower than the Information Technology Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.78
-
-
Debt per share
$43.03
EBITDA per share
$7.62
Valuation Analysis Today of
NCR
P/E Ratio:
72.68
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
24.85
P/E ratio is 192.50% higher than main peers & is 53.11% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $4.27
NCR is 614.87% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.56
Price to sales ratio is -84.69% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.61
Price to free cash flow: 6.39
Price to free cash flow ratio is -66.63% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-199.25%
Net income growth rate is -100.25% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 12.12%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
368.88%
Net debt to equity ratio:
348.28%
Debt to assets ratio:
50.29%
Net debt to assets ratio:
47.48%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -20.74% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.07
Interest coverage ratio is -90.25% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 4.61%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.637
Statistical significance of correlation:
NCR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.596
Stock price is 6.93% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.596
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.016
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.038
Kurtosis
9.78
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.048
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NCR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
101%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
5.31%
Operating profit margin is -176.46% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
101%
Effective Tax Rate:
84.65%
Effective tax rate is 220.61% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
2.07%
Return on equity (ROE) is -96.33% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.28%
Return on assets (ROA) is 229.98% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.0x
Current Ratio:
1.05
Current ratio is -54.58% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
4.5
Cash conversion cycle is -87.93% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
103.03%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
196.8K
Each employee generates -53% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
27.4K
Each employee generates -39% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
0.9K
Each employee generates -90% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 1.2K
Each employee generates -82% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
230.0K
Each employee generates -82% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 14.53%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -53.65% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
NCR
Lightspeed Commerce Inc. (XNYS:LSPD)
MDLA
VONTIER CORPORATION (XNYS:VNT)
ROGERS CORPORATION (XNYS:ROG)
BB
MAXLINEAR, INC. (XNAS:MXL)
AllianzIM US LC B10 Jul (ARCX:AZAL)
SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION (XNYS:SAIC)
ATOTECH LIMITED (XNYS:ATC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�13%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
7.48B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
5.59B
1.89B
267.00M
-
1.23B
-
-
1.49B
2.00M
256.00M
572.00M
1.04B
397.00M
33.00M
215.00M
182.00M
33.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
147.00M
Differed Income Tax :
4.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
34.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 115000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
154.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 1000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
34.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 1000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
412.00M
-
412.00M
1.07B
805.00M
688.00M
2.98B
1.08B
4.57B
1.31B
-
716.00M
1.07B
8.74B
-
11.72B
901.00M
83.00M
-
625.00M
1.22B
2.83B
5.89B
1.40B
7.29B
-
10.12B
1.00M
993.00M
- 273000.0K
602.00M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
7.08B
1.60B
11.71B
-
5.97B
5.6B
-
- 85000.00K
- 86000.00K
- 285000.00K
-
-
- 4000.00K
290.00M
1.00M
- 6000.00K
- 57000.00K
692.00M
749.00M
34.00M
- 80000.00K
- 46000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NCR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$33.81
$24.46
$26.95
$29.69
$32.70