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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Nbt Bancorp Inc. (XNAS:NBTB) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NBTB
Name:
NBT BANCORP INC. (XNAS:NBTB)
Sector:
33.83M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. John Watt
Total Employees:
1,801
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 822.32% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NBT BANCORP INC.(NBTB) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
38.5
One Month Price Target:
$38.62
Six Month Price Target :
$39.21
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$39.91
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$38.36
Price Upper limit ($) :
$38.66
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$36.66
This week:
$34.38
This month :
$30.26
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.62B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
42.84M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.61%
-9.26%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$47.06
$43.15
$29.94
$33.85
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$41.88
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$41.04
$35.11
$35.96
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NBTB
Sharpe Ratio:
0.59%
Comparison:
NBTB, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -52.18% lower than the industry
& is -74.23% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NBTB
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.11%
Monthly returns:
0.45%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -50.27% below industry average
Classification:
NBTB, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.59
Statistical test of Returns:
NBTB has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.34%
Weekly Volatility:
5.24%
Monthly Volatility:
10.48%
Yearly Volatility:
36.29%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.44%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -81.06% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.79%
Weekly VaR:
-10.71%
Monthly VaR:
-21.41%
How Much Can the price of
NBTB
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-74.17%
This translates to price declining to:
$31.31
This translates to price declining to:
$9.94
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NBTB is a 51.13% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 29.47% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -18.00% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NBTB
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.55
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.533
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.753
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.48
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.429
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.687
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.628
Beta is -13.00% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -43.29% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
8.74%
Sustainable growth rate is -4.31% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.015
Alpha is -226.50% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -93% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NBTB
Equity cost of capital:
0.069
Equity cost of capital is -29.30% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.06%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.24%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.93%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.93%
WACC is -40.39% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$11.28
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.37
Annual revenue growth rate is -58.15% below industry average
EPS:
$3.54
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
8.65%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -28.05% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.25
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 11.02%
Equity growth rate per share is -71.55% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$4.99
EBITDA per share
$5.51
Valuation Analysis Today of
NBTB
P/E Ratio:
11.02
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
21.8
P/E ratio is -49.44% lower than main peers & is -11.17% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $43.93
NBTB is -12.35% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $39.67
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $17.23
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.41
Price to sales ratio is -20.17% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.37
Price to free cash flow: 11.85
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
38.45%
Net income growth rate is -30.18% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 7.84%
Dividend yeild: 2.91%
Previous Dividend: $0.28
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.28
Previous Dividend: $1.12
Expected next dividend best case: $0.28
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.28
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.27
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.37%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 30/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/01/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-31--$0.28
2021-11-30--$0.28
2021-05-28--$0.27
2022-02-28--$0.28
2021-08-31--$0.28
2021-02-26--$0.27
Dividend growth rate is -98.43% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
17.78%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-67.82%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.76%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-6.71%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.94% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
13.58
Interest coverage ratio is 1538.21% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-23.42%
Annual debt growth is -7495% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 13.30%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.486
Statistical significance of correlation:
NBTB has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -2.89% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.022
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.029
Kurtosis
6.501
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.861
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NBTB
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
10.93%
Operating profit margin is -69.48% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.58%
Effective tax rate is 4.79% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
12.82%
Return on equity (ROE) is 7.49% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.27%
Return on assets (ROA) is -44.93% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.60%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
268.2K
Each employee generates -29% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
131.1K
Each employee generates -42% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
85.6K
Each employee generates -40% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
18.8K
Each employee generates -77% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.6M
Each employee generates -77% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
NBTB
WESTAMERICA BANCORPORATION (XNAS:WABC)
PALOMAR HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:PLMR)
EAGLE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:EGBN)
NORTHWEST BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:NWBI)
LAKELAND FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:LKFN)
PRA GROUP, INC. (XNAS:PRAA)
EHEALTH, INC. (XNAS:EHTH)
CAPITOL FEDERAL FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:CFFN)
Pathward Financial, Inc. (XNAS:CASH)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
483.09M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
125.34M
-
206.26M
208.98M
2.72M
- 34694.00K
16.72M
339.77M
17.39M
19.55M
236.06M
-
154.17M
199.13M
44.96M
154.17M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
4.74M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
2.47M
Change in Working Capital :
- 11652.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 11652.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
454.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
35.14M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 330365.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.09B
1.66B
2.76B
-
-
-
-
71.03M
280.54M
8.29M
2.59B
-
-
2.95B
15.10B
12.15B
-
65.02M
-
-
-
65.02M
213.77M
-
213.77M
11.09B
10.95B
497.00K
883.25M
- 91375.0K
409.88M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
1.20B
12.15B
4.25B
278.79M
- 815392.0K
101.31M
- 153891.00K
- 382947.00K
- 32797.00K
-
- 8152.00K
- 12083.00K
225.94M
172.91M
-
- 174891.00K
1.09B
1.27B
35.14M
- 1312.00K
33.83M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NBTB
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$40.11
$58.58
$60.73
$62.97
$65.28