_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Navient Corporation (XNAS:JSM) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
JSM
Name:
NAVIENT CORPORATION (XNAS:JSM)
Sector:
- 109000.00K
Industry:
Credit Services
CEO:
None
Total Employees:
4,330
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -92.56% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NAVIENT CORPORATION(JSM) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND CREDIT SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
22.48
One Month Price Target:
$22.69
Six Month Price Target :
$23.74
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$25.01
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$22.38
Price Upper limit ($) :
$22.59
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$21.21
This week:
$19.63
This month :
$16.78
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.09B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
141.88M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
35.97%
-25.76%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$28.40
$25.69
$16.56
$19.27
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$24.81
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$24.23
$20.14
$20.73
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
JSM
Sharpe Ratio:
0.78%
Comparison:
JSM, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -58.00% lower than the industry
& is -65.74% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
JSM
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.15%
Monthly returns:
0.61%
Yearly returns:
19.06%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -61.57% below industry average
Classification:
JSM, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.39
Statistical test of Returns:
JSM has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.78%
Weekly Volatility:
6.21%
Monthly Volatility:
12.41%
Yearly Volatility:
43.00%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
4.00%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 44.17% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.67%
Weekly VaR:
-12.68%
Monthly VaR:
-25.36%
How Much Can the price of
JSM
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-87.85%
This translates to price declining to:
$17.52
This translates to price declining to:
$2.73
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
JSM is a 78.99% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 53.34% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -15.88% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
JSM
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.67
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.815
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.152
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.202
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.438
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.636
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.22
Beta is 37.17% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.332
Beta is 25.58% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
3.65%
Sustainable growth rate is -89.20% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.073
Alpha is -207.29% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -464% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
JSM
Equity cost of capital:
0.146
Equity cost of capital is 19.02% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
1.77%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.05%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.62%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.62%
WACC is -72.83% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$21.19
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.13
-
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.11
-
-
Debt per share
$499.19
EBITDA per share
$18.89
Valuation Analysis Today of
JSM
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
15.42
-
-
-
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $13.81
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $8.67
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.06
Price to sales ratio is -79.59% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.13
Price to free cash flow: 10.66
Price to free cash flow ratio is -80.31% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 2.79%
Dividend yeild: 6.67%
Previous Dividend: $0.38
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.38
Previous Dividend: $1.50
Expected next dividend best case: $0.40
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.35
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.38
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -2.29%
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-13--$0.38
2021-09-13--$0.38
2021-03-11--$0.38
2022-03-11--$0.38
2021-06-11--$0.38
2020-12-11--$0.38
Dividend growth rate is -76.07% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
950.16%
Net debt to equity ratio:
991.67%
Debt to assets ratio:
90.62%
Net debt to assets ratio:
94.58%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 16.24% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
1.75
Interest coverage ratio is -82.18% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.34
Statistical significance of correlation:
JSM has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.561
Stock price is -39.45% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.561
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.011
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.018
Kurtosis
58.372
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.373
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
JSM
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
31.13%
Operating profit margin is 7.05% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
23.45%
Effective tax rate is 8.31% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
11.55%
Return on equity (ROE) is -72.75% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.10%
Return on assets (ROA) is -81.82% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
10.7x
Current Ratio:
0.24
Current ratio is -95.82% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.05%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
694.5K
Each employee generates -4% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
618.9K
Each employee generates 48% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
198.8K
Each employee generates -18% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 25.2K
Each employee generates -143% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
166.7K
Each employee generates -143% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
JSM
Popular Inc (XNAS:BPOP)
PEOPLE'S UNITED FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:PBCTP)
PINNACLE FINANCIAL PARTNERS, INC. (XNAS:PNFP)
SOUTHSTATE CORPORATION (XNAS:SSB)
BOK FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:BOKF)
FIRST FINANCIAL BANKSHARES, INC. (XNAS:FFIN)
CREDIT ACCEPTANCE CORPORATION (XNAS:CACC)
TRILLION ENERGY INTERNATIONAL INC. (XCNQ:TCF)
Upstart Holdings Inc (XNAS:UPST)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.01B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
-
-
-
1.27B
1.27B
359.00M
1.53B
34.00M
2.68B
936.00M
861.00M
1.08B
254.00M
861.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
4.00M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
9.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 1566000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 2884000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.30B
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 109000.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
708.00M
210.00M
918.00M
-
-
-
918.00M
-
-
-
-
-
-
722.00M
77.96B
78.16B
-
3.80B
-
-
-
3.80B
70.83B
701.00M
71.53B
-
75.33B
4.00M
4.17B
- 19000.0K
3.30B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
63.00M
7.45B
82.78B
210.00M
74.63B
73.9B
-
1.75B
1.75B
-
-
- 115000.00K
- 24000.00K
- 1867000.00K
- 2006000.00K
-
- 364000.00K
3.21B
3.58B
- 109000.00K
-
- 109000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
JSM
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$18.76
$20.87
$23.21
$25.82
$28.72