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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
National Western Life Group, Inc. (XNAS:NWLI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NWLI
Name:
NATIONAL WESTERN LIFE GROUP, INC. (XNAS:NWLI)
Sector:
72.14M
Industry:
Insurance�Life
CEO:
Mr. Ross Moody
Total Employees:
266
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL WESTERN LIFE GROUP, INC.(NWLI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INSURANCE�LIFE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
187.02
One Month Price Target:
$187.97
Six Month Price Target :
$192.74
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$198.45
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$186.09
Price Upper limit ($) :
$187.95
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$175.78
This week:
$161.89
This month :
$136.75
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
672.66M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
3.64M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
20.4%
-20.76%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$239.22
$215.49
$134.82
$158.55
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$207.77
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$202.71
$166.20
$171.33
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NWLI
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.32%
Comparison:
NWLI, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -125.08% lower than the industry
& is -114.23% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NWLI
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
0.00%
Monthly returns:
-0.01%
Yearly returns:
12.17%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -101.26% below industry average
Classification:
NWLI, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.67
Statistical test of Returns:
NWLI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.93%
Weekly Volatility:
6.54%
Monthly Volatility:
13.09%
Yearly Volatility:
45.33%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.95%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -67.55% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.01%
Weekly VaR:
-13.44%
Monthly VaR:
-26.88%
How Much Can the price of
NWLI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
-93.11%
This translates to price declining to:
$142.54
This translates to price declining to:
$12.88
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NWLI is a 89.71% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 62.53% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -4.43% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NWLI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.91
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.618
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.874
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.194
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.664
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.008
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.824
Beta is 10.39% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.194
Beta is -23.82% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.36%
Sustainable growth rate is -13.03% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.095
Alpha is -1229.91% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -607% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NWLI
Equity cost of capital:
0.094
Equity cost of capital is -17.20% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.00%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$200.22
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.3
Annual revenue growth rate is 127.45% above the industry average
EPS:
$42.56
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
10.11%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 149.53% higher than the Insurance�Life industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$77.06
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -2.83%
Equity growth rate per share is -137.17% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$57.16
Valuation Analysis Today of
NWLI
P/E Ratio:
4.91
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
15.44
P/E ratio is -68.23% lower than main peers & is -49.50% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $413.46
NWLI is -54.77% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $32.17
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $11.51
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.93
Price to sales ratio is -13.12% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.3
Price to free cash flow: 2.43
Price to free cash flow ratio is -7.84% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
50.49%
Net income growth rate is 121.27% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 0.58%
Previous Dividend: $0.36
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.36
Previous Dividend: $1.08
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.36
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 03/01/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 02/03/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 24/01/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 12/01/2021
Previous dividend record date: 11/05/2021
Previous dividend declaration date: 26/10/2021
Dividend History:
2021-11-04--$0.36
2019-11-05--$0.36
--$0.00
2020-11-04--$0.36
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
464.18%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-21.75%
Debt to assets ratio:
82.28%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-3.62%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -6.07% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 100.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.534
Statistical significance of correlation:
NWLI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.695
Stock price is -23.12% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.695
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.016
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.027
Kurtosis
10.934
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.465
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NWLI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
31.22%
Operating profit margin is -958.10% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
20.46%
Effective tax rate is 0.72% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
6.73%
Return on equity (ROE) is 113.94% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.12%
Return on assets (ROA) is 33.28% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
5.6x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
2.7M
Each employee generates 44% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
781.3K
Each employee generates 144% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
581.7K
Each employee generates 150% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
271.2K
Each employee generates 408% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
0.0K
Each employee generates 408% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
NWLI
NORTHFIELD BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:NFBK)
Univest Financial Corporation (XNAS:UVSP)
THE FIRST BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:FBMS)
Washington Trust Bancorp, Inc. (XNAS:WASH)
WORLD ACCEPTANCE CORPORATION (XNAS:WRLD)
ALLEGIANCE BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:ABTX)
UNITED FIRE GROUP, INC. (XNAS:UFCS)
STATE AUTO FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:STFC)
Calamos Dyn Cv and Inc (XNAS:CCD)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
728.01M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
102.49M
102.49M
-
-
-
-
-
13.28M
207.83M
227.26M
154.74M
194.54M
39.81M
154.74M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.44M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
57.79M
Accounts Receivables:
45.16M
Other Working Capital:
14.15M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 24706.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
72.71M
Investments in PP&E:
- 569.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 519403.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
499.75M
8.72B
9.22B
1.50B
-
-
-
-
13.86M
159.75M
9.76B
-
-
-
13.82B
13.82B
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
11.53B
11.53B
36.00K
2.32B
- 61941.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
533.47M
2.30B
13.82B
18.47B
-
- 499754.0K
369.91M
- 24757.00K
- 174819.00K
- 84.00K
-
-
-
- 113070.00K
- 113154.00K
396.00K
- 214870.00K
499.75M
714.62M
72.71M
- 569.00K
72.14M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NWLI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$199.44
$384.58
$408.09
$433.03
$459.50