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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
National Vision Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:EYE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
EYE
Name:
NATIONAL VISION HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:EYE)
Sector:
19.02M
Industry:
Specialty Retail
CEO:
Mr. Leonard Fahs
Total Employees:
13,735
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -568.43% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL VISION HOLDINGS, INC.(EYE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
33.06
One Month Price Target:
$33.35
Six Month Price Target :
$34.82
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$36.58
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$32.88
Price Upper limit ($) :
$33.3
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$30.52
This week:
$27.38
This month :
$21.71
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.66B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
78.89M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
32.04%
-25.74%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$44.84
$39.42
$21.28
$26.70
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$37.66
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$36.50
$28.45
$29.62
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
EYE
Sharpe Ratio:
1.98%
Comparison:
EYE, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -30.84% lower than the industry
& is -13.22% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
EYE
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.42%
Monthly returns:
1.67%
Yearly returns:
34.92%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -42.55% below industry average
Classification:
EYE, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.66
Statistical test of Returns:
EYE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.78%
Weekly Volatility:
8.45%
Monthly Volatility:
16.90%
Yearly Volatility:
58.54%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.06%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -45.45% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.68%
Weekly VaR:
-17.17%
Monthly VaR:
-34.33%
How Much Can the price of
EYE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-29%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$23.34
This translates to price declining to:
$4.96
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
EYE is a 142.32% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 107.60% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -9.02% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
EYE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.59
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.872
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.233
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.878
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.825
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.008
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.543
Beta is 2.77% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.43
Beta is 10.93% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
16.89%
Sustainable growth rate is -49.14% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.060
Alpha is -72.48% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 385% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
EYE
Equity cost of capital:
0.140
Equity cost of capital is 8.27% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.76%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.39%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.89%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.89%
WACC is 23.41% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$26.28
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.74
Annual revenue growth rate is -125.30% below industry average
EPS:
$1.31
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
50.44%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 43.22% higher than the Specialty Retail industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.22
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is -294.99% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$11.48
EBITDA per share
$3.27
Valuation Analysis Today of
EYE
P/E Ratio:
32.48
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
17.8
P/E ratio is 82.44% higher than main peers & is 50.99% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $28.18
EYE is 17.33% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.26
Price to sales ratio is -69.07% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.74
Price to free cash flow: 27.19
Price to free cash flow ratio is -27.45% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-37.48%
Net income growth rate is -92.08% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
95.25%
Net debt to equity ratio:
70.07%
Debt to assets ratio:
38.94%
Net debt to assets ratio:
28.65%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -46.18% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
11
Interest coverage ratio is -55.57% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
10.45%
Annual debt growth is -85% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.12%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.482
Statistical significance of correlation:
EYE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.475
Stock price is 1.36% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.475
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.027
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.058
Kurtosis
15.304
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.184
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
EYE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
223%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
7.28%
Operating profit margin is 11.91% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
223%
Effective Tax Rate:
15.27%
Effective tax rate is -32.28% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
12.09%
Return on equity (ROE) is 750.01% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.94%
Return on assets (ROA) is -46.87% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
1.54
Current ratio is -18.32% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-3.9
Cash conversion cycle is -105.99% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
3.25%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
150.9K
Each employee generates -80% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
18.8K
Each employee generates -92% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
8.4K
Each employee generates -94% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
1.4K
Each employee generates -97% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
130.5K
Each employee generates -97% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
EYE
STEVEN MADDEN, LTD. (XNAS:SHOO)
ACADEMY SPORTS AND OUTDOORS, INC. (XNAS:ASO)
STAY
HOVNANIAN ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:HOVNP)
LGI HOMES, INC. (XNAS:LGIH)
VISTEON CORPORATION (XNAS:VC)
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (XNAS:CBRL)
TRIPADVISOR, INC. (XNAS:TRIP)
RUSH ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:RUSHA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�4%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/2/22
Revenue:
2.07B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
916.13M
1.16B
-
-
905.76M
-
96.48M
1.00B
-
23.43M
98.69M
257.79M
150.82M
114.96M
135.68M
20.72M
114.96M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
25.15M
Differed Income Tax :
8.41M
Stock Based Compensation :
3.73M
Change in Working Capital :
- 13839.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 6620.00K
Other Working Capital:
14.18M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 6486.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
47.12M
Investments in PP&E:
- 28097.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/2/22
2022
Q1
314.64M
-
314.64M
62.25M
127.40M
28.31M
532.59M
712.32M
777.61M
280.69M
-
-
22.27M
1.79B
-
2.33B
69.41M
75.27M
-
108.86M
91.87M
345.41M
905.56M
9.13M
1.03B
-
1.37B
841.00K
308.54M
- 1752.0K
-
April 2, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.92B
950.73M
2.33B
-
980.83M
666.2M
-
20.00K
- 28077.00K
- 1112.00K
1.82M
- 10649.00K
-
-
- 9941.00K
-
9.10M
315.98M
306.88M
47.12M
- 28097.00K
19.02M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
EYE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$36.76
$52.71
$58.33
$64.55
$71.43