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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
National Retail Properties, Inc. (XNYS:NNN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NNN
Name:
NATIONAL RETAIL PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:NNN)
Sector:
164.34M
Industry:
REIT�Retail
CEO:
Mr. Julian Whitehurst
Total Employees:
72
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -120.82% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL RETAIL PROPERTIES, INC.(NNN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
44.6
One Month Price Target:
$44.81
Six Month Price Target :
$45.84
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$47.08
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$44.4
Price Upper limit ($) :
$44.81
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$42.08
This week:
$38.97
This month :
$33.34
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
7.91B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
177.11M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.75%
-24.42%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$56.29
$50.96
$32.91
$38.24
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$49.23
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$48.09
$39.96
$41.11
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NNN
Sharpe Ratio:
0.18%
Comparison:
NNN, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -83.13% lower than the industry
& is -92.31% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NNN
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.07%
Monthly returns:
0.27%
Yearly returns:
8.74%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -62.43% below industry average
Classification:
NNN, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.76
Statistical test of Returns:
NNN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.76%
Weekly Volatility:
6.16%
Monthly Volatility:
12.32%
Yearly Volatility:
42.69%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.51%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -81.44% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.65%
Weekly VaR:
-12.62%
Monthly VaR:
-25.25%
How Much Can the price of
NNN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-87.46%
This translates to price declining to:
$34.71
This translates to price declining to:
$5.59
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NNN is a 78.19% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 52.65% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -6.89% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NNN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.83
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.612
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.866
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.686
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.844
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.826
Beta is 0.00% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.101
Beta is -24.98% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.055
Alpha is 182.85% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -352% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NNN
Equity cost of capital:
0.088
Equity cost of capital is -17.62% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.74%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.95%
Overall debt rating:
Upper medium A grade (third highest grade),CO8<=0.0429,"Medium BBB grade (Fourth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.95%
WACC is -18.98% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.31
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.03
Annual revenue growth rate is 847.65% above the industry average
EPS:
$1.68
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-1.08%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -170.11% lower than the REIT�Retail industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.16
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is 377.63% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$21.16
EBITDA per share
$3.67
Valuation Analysis Today of
NNN
P/E Ratio:
26.12
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
26.74
P/E ratio is -2.32% lower than main peers & is -45.26% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $80.17
NNN is -44.36% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $38.42
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $24.96
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
13.47
Price to sales ratio is 40.38% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.03
Price to free cash flow: 14.11
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-100.00%
Net income growth rate is 651.25% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 30.67%
Dividend yeild: 4.75%
Previous Dividend: $0.53
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.53
Previous Dividend: $2.12
Expected next dividend best case: $0.54
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.52
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.52
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.29%
Expected next dividend payment date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 13/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 16/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 29/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 14/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-28--$0.53
2021-10-28--$0.53
2021-04-29--$0.52
2022-01-28--$0.53
2021-07-29--$0.53
2021-01-28--$0.52
Dividend growth rate is -98.17% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
96.14%
Net debt to equity ratio:
94.76%
Debt to assets ratio:
48.22%
Net debt to assets ratio:
47.53%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -11.85% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.65
Interest coverage ratio is 55.00% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
15.98%
Annual debt growth is 1178% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.588
Statistical significance of correlation:
NNN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.511
Stock price is 15.01% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.511
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.053
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.084
Kurtosis
19.303
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.2
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NNN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
368%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
77.56%
Operating profit margin is 152.54% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
368%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
7.76%
Return on equity (ROE) is -33.72% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.89%
Return on assets (ROA) is 31.19% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.9x
Current Ratio:
1.63
Current ratio is -96.12% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
2
Cash conversion cycle is -99.05% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.07%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
8.1M
Each employee generates 117% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
9.0M
Each employee generates 184% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
4.2M
Each employee generates 232% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
2.3M
Each employee generates 306% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
106.6M
Each employee generates 306% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
NNN
KIM-PM
AMERICAN HOMES 4 RENT (XNYS:AMH)
Apartment Income REIT Corp. (XNYS:AIRC)
KILROY REALTY CORPORATION (XNYS:KRC)
AMERICOLD REALTY TRUST, INC. (XNYS:COLD)
EASTGROUP PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:EGP)
VORNADO REALTY TRUST (XNYS:VNO)
FIRST INDUSTRIAL REALTY TRUST, INC. (XNYS:FR)
STAG INDUSTRIAL, INC. (XNYS:STAG)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�8%
Hold�29%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
586.27M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
27.86M
558.42M
-
44.13M
44.19M
-
154.47M
198.66M
129.00K
139.99M
207.92M
650.36M
454.70M
302.46M
302.46M
-
302.46M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
52.68M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
6.25M
Change in Working Capital :
24.35M
Accounts Receivables:
338.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 21.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 315.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
164.34M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
53.74M
-
53.74M
33.54M
-
7.48M
94.76M
-
-
65.24M
-
-
7.61B
7.68B
-
7.77B
-
-
-
-
58.02M
58.02M
3.75B
68.75M
3.82B
-
3.87B
1.76M
- 759232.00K
- 14373.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
226.52M
3.90B
7.77B
-
3.75B
3.7B
-
- 189643.00K
- 189643.00K
- 165.00K
748.00K
-
- 92751.00K
- 113.00K
- 92281.00K
-
- 117586.00K
53.74M
171.32M
164.34M
-
164.34M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NNN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$51.39
$54.24
$57.25
$60.42
$63.78