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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
National Research Corporation (XNAS:NRC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NRC
Name:
NATIONAL RESEARCH CORPORATION (XNAS:NRC)
Sector:
5.75M
Industry:
Diagnostics & Research
CEO:
Mr. Michael Hays
Total Employees:
511
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -58.68% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL RESEARCH CORPORATION(NRC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DIAGNOSTICS & RESEARCH INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
33.58
One Month Price Target:
$33.7
Six Month Price Target :
$34.32
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$35.07
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$33.4
Price Upper limit ($) :
$33.73
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$31.57
This week:
$29.08
This month :
$24.57
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
833.91M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
24.77M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
19.31%
-20.65%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$42.94
$38.72
$24.22
$28.44
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$37.35
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$36.45
$29.80
$30.71
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NRC
Sharpe Ratio:
-2.08%
Comparison:
NRC, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -182.60% lower than the industry
& is -191.26% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NRC
Daily returns:
-0.05%
Weekly returns:
-0.26%
Monthly returns:
-1.03%
Yearly returns:
27.92%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -144.16% below industry average
Classification:
NRC, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.59
Statistical test of Returns:
NRC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.90%
Weekly Volatility:
6.47%
Monthly Volatility:
12.95%
Yearly Volatility:
44.85%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.39%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -86.53% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.00%
Weekly VaR:
-13.41%
Monthly VaR:
-26.82%
How Much Can the price of
NRC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
-92.91%
This translates to price declining to:
$25.41
This translates to price declining to:
$2.38
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NRC is a 89.31% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 62.18% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -25.01% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NRC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.66
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.529
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.749
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.551
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.685
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.105
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.122
Beta is -41.25% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.181
Beta is -44.20% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
31.77%
Sustainable growth rate is -39.86% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.200
Alpha is -219.91% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1273% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NRC
Equity cost of capital:
0.077
Equity cost of capital is -31.81% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.40%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.09%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.81%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.81%
WACC is -17.03% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$6.09
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
10.21
Annual revenue growth rate is -73.30% below industry average
EPS:
$1.44
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
3.94%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -85.30% lower than the Diagnostics & Research industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.30
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -42.12%
Equity growth rate per share is 2239.55% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$0.85
EBITDA per share
$2.25
Valuation Analysis Today of
NRC
P/E Ratio:
23.67
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
404.57
P/E ratio is -94.15% lower than main peers & is -36.33% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $53.53
NRC is -37.27% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.51
Price to sales ratio is -42.02% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
10.21
Price to free cash flow: 25.77
Price to free cash flow ratio is -38.44% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
32.84%
Net income growth rate is -114.37% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 8.28%
Dividend yeild: 2.14%
Previous Dividend: $0.24
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.24
Previous Dividend: $0.72
Expected next dividend best case: $0.30
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.18
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.17
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 8.16%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 30/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-29--$0.24
2021-12-29--$0.12
2021-06-29--$0.12
2022-03-30--$0.24
2021-09-29--$0.12
2021-04-16--$0.12
Dividend growth rate is -166.59% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
25.97%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-26.75%
Debt to assets ratio:
13.82%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-14.23%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -71.57% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
35.89
Interest coverage ratio is -227.95% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-13.27%
Annual debt growth is -113% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 5.30%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.499
Statistical significance of correlation:
NRC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.488
Stock price is 2.25% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.488
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.012
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.021
Kurtosis
10.868
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.312
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NRC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
254%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
33.09%
Operating profit margin is -129.42% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
254%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.09%
Effective tax rate is 25.53% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
45.13%
Return on equity (ROE) is 114.80% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
24.01%
Return on assets (ROA) is -108.90% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
1.66
Current ratio is -66.64% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
15.3
Cash conversion cycle is -69.19% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 13.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.78%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
295.4K
Each employee generates -21% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
109.0K
Each employee generates 263% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
72.0K
Each employee generates 350% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
11.2K
Each employee generates -617% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
164.8K
Each employee generates -617% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
NRC
CODEXIS, INC. (XNAS:CDXS)
OCULAR THERAPEUTIX, INC. (XNAS:OCUL)
NEXTGEN HEALTHCARE, INC. (XNAS:NXGN)
KEROS THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:KROS)
Shattuck Labs Inc (XNAS:STTK)
AVID BIOSERVICES, INC. (XNAS:CDMO)
COMPASS PATHWAYS PLC (XNAS:CMPS)
ORTHOPEDIATRICS CORP. (XNAS:KIDS)
Repare Therapeutics Inc (XNAS:RPTX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
150.93M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
55.19M
95.74M
-
-
40.09M
-
5.71M
45.80M
16.00K
1.55M
5.71M
55.70M
49.95M
36.77M
48.44M
11.67M
36.77M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.32M
Differed Income Tax :
- 498.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
285.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 1452.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 2164.00K
Other Working Capital:
2.96M
Other Non-Cash Items:
100.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
8.29M
Investments in PP&E:
- 2542.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
47.29M
-
47.29M
16.00M
-
5.63M
68.92M
13.77M
61.61M
1.74M
-
17.00K
7.09M
84.23M
-
153.15M
1.13M
4.33M
2.56M
16.69M
19.41M
41.57M
21.16M
2.43M
30.10M
-
71.67M
31.00K
- 33620.00K
- 2324.0K
117.40M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
100.98M
81.49M
153.15M
-
25.49M
- 21796.0K
-
-
- 2542.00K
- 1185.00K
-
- 6679.00K
- 3044.00K
- 1950.00K
- 12858.00K
39.00K
- 7071.00K
47.29M
54.36M
8.29M
- 2542.00K
5.75M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NRC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$35.25
$190.24
$198.66
$207.46
$216.65