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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
National Instruments Corporation (XNAS:NATI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NATI
Name:
NATIONAL INSTRUMENTS CORPORATION (XNAS:NATI)
Sector:
- 15491.00K
Industry:
Software�Application
CEO:
Mr. Eric Starkloff
Total Employees:
7,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -105.72% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL INSTRUMENTS CORPORATION(NATI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�APPLICATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
38.47
One Month Price Target:
$38.71
Six Month Price Target :
$39.93
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$41.4
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$38.31
Price Upper limit ($) :
$38.64
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$36.47
This week:
$34.
This month :
$29.53
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.09B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
132.32M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
23.04%
-23.24%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$47.75
$43.52
$29.19
$33.42
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$42.14
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$41.23
$34.79
$35.71
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NATI
Sharpe Ratio:
0.47%
Comparison:
NATI, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -51.50% lower than the industry
& is -79.49% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NATI
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.10%
Monthly returns:
0.41%
Yearly returns:
9.94%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -49.93% below industry average
Classification:
NATI, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.51
Statistical test of Returns:
NATI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.54%
Weekly Volatility:
5.68%
Monthly Volatility:
11.37%
Yearly Volatility:
39.37%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.62%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -75.76% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.20%
Weekly VaR:
-11.62%
Monthly VaR:
-23.25%
How Much Can the price of
NATI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-80.54%
This translates to price declining to:
$30.65
This translates to price declining to:
$7.49
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NATI is a 64.10% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 40.58% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -29.30% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NATI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.13
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.941
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.331
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.905
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.946
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.831
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.252
Beta is -9.52% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.335
Beta is -15.21% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.059
Alpha is 151.23% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -378% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NATI
Equity cost of capital:
0.109
Equity cost of capital is -11.31% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.72%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.18%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.93%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.93%
WACC is 0.78% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$11.49
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.22
Annual revenue growth rate is -93.97% below industry average
EPS:
$0.83
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-18.33%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -167.01% lower than the Software�Application industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.48
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 16.83%
Equity growth rate per share is 1000.71% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$2.70
EBITDA per share
$1.75
Valuation Analysis Today of
NATI
P/E Ratio:
48.68
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
53.31
P/E ratio is -8.69% lower than main peers & is -72.59% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $147.41
NATI is -73.90% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $22.77
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $11.40
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.35
Price to sales ratio is -70.80% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.22
Price to free cash flow: 80.50
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-42.85%
Net income growth rate is -117.55% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 33.60%
Dividend yeild: 2.86%
Previous Dividend: $0.28
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.28
Previous Dividend: $1.10
Expected next dividend best case: $0.29
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.27
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.27
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.15%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 19/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 31/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/09/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 20/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-06--$0.28
2021-11-05--$0.27
2021-05-07--$0.27
2022-02-04--$0.28
2021-08-06--$0.27
2021-02-05--$0.27
Dividend growth rate is -111.68% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
29.62%
Net debt to equity ratio:
18.88%
Debt to assets ratio:
17.26%
Net debt to assets ratio:
11.01%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -68.54% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
52.9
Interest coverage ratio is -0.41% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
131.09%
Annual debt growth is -86% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.688
Statistical significance of correlation:
NATI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.503
Stock price is 36.82% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.503
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.016
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.023
Kurtosis
23.984
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.649
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NATI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
283%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
9.16%
Operating profit margin is -147.79% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
283%
Effective Tax Rate:
15.13%
Effective tax rate is -42.66% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.11%
Return on equity (ROE) is -169.69% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.31%
Return on assets (ROA) is -238.33% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
2.24
Current ratio is -25.22% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
146.6
Cash conversion cycle is 54.69% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
18.29%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
217.1K
Each employee generates -37% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
33.0K
Each employee generates 207% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
15.7K
Each employee generates -190% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 2.2K
Each employee generates -72% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
171.1K
Each employee generates -72% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 19.83%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 1197.15% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
NATI
NCINO, INC. (XNAS:NCNO)
The Descartes Systems Group Inc. (XNAS:DSGX)
JCOM
CRICUT, INC. (XNAS:CRCT)
VARONIS SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:VRNS)
CHINDATA GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (XNAS:CD)
POWER INTEGRATIONS, INC. (XNAS:POWI)
Agora, Inc. (XNAS:API)
ALTAIR ENGINEERING INC. (XNAS:ALTR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�0%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.52B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
444.78M
1.07B
338.06M
127.04M
597.76M
470.73M
-
935.82M
260.00K
4.37M
97.10M
231.13M
139.16M
110.06M
129.67M
19.61M
110.06M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
21.57M
Differed Income Tax :
- 3615.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
20.13M
Change in Working Capital :
- 66561.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 602.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 3848.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 17510.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
142.88M
-
142.88M
312.94M
307.89M
109.76M
873.48M
314.91M
592.07M
216.29M
-
-
74.72M
1.20B
-
2.07B
81.82M
13.27M
77.53M
134.64M
160.22M
389.94M
357.58M
69.15M
474.09M
-
864.03M
1.32M
76.26M
- 22494.0K
1.15B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.38B
1.21B
2.07B
-
370.85M
228.0M
-
- 11643.00K
- 29153.00K
-
9.24M
- 31455.00K
- 36976.00K
25.00M
- 34187.00K
- 1035.00K
- 68223.00K
142.88M
211.11M
- 3848.00K
- 11643.00K
- 15491.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NATI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$43.16
$46.44
$49.98
$53.78
$57.87