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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
National Healthcare Corporation (XNYS:NHC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NHC
Name:
NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION (XNYS:NHC)
Sector:
- 36419.00K
Industry:
Medical Care Facilities
CEO:
Dr. Stephen Flatt
Total Employees:
12,965
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 363.46% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION(NHC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL CARE FACILITIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
69.24
One Month Price Target:
$69.35
Six Month Price Target :
$69.92
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$70.61
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$68.97
Price Upper limit ($) :
$69.49
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$66.06
This week:
$62.14
This month :
$55.04
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.07B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
15.49M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
11.16%
-10.19%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$83.99
$77.30
$54.49
$61.18
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$75.12
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$73.70
$63.34
$64.78
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NHC
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.86%
Comparison:
NHC, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -138.49% lower than the industry
& is -137.55% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NHC
Daily returns:
-0.01%
Weekly returns:
-0.05%
Monthly returns:
-0.20%
Yearly returns:
23.01%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -110.66% below industry average
Classification:
NHC, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.73
Statistical test of Returns:
NHC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.23%
Weekly Volatility:
4.98%
Monthly Volatility:
9.96%
Yearly Volatility:
34.52%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.14%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -48.90% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.59%
Weekly VaR:
-10.25%
Monthly VaR:
-20.51%
How Much Can the price of
NHC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-18%
Worst case (decline):
-71.05%
This translates to price declining to:
$56.60
This translates to price declining to:
$20.05
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NHC is a 44.76% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 24.01% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -33.22% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NHC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.29
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.366
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.518
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.259
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.414
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.562
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.769
Beta is -61.85% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.067
Beta is -72.50% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
13.55%
Sustainable growth rate is -62.36% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.076
Alpha is -160.66% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -485% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NHC
Equity cost of capital:
0.052
Equity cost of capital is -50.66% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.56%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.48%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.38%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.38%
WACC is -35.85% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$67.86
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.18
Annual revenue growth rate is -94.93% below industry average
EPS:
$8.60
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
26.23%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 94.86% higher than the Medical Care Facilities industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 6.53%
Equity growth rate per share is -160.31% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$8.19
EBITDA per share
$11.79
Valuation Analysis Today of
NHC
P/E Ratio:
34.57
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
58.96
P/E ratio is -41.37% lower than main peers & is -50.88% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $605.11
NHC is -88.56% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $153.84
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $52.38
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.02
Price to sales ratio is -51.82% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.18
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is 39.85% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
133.17%
Net income growth rate is -13.24% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 6.40%
Dividend yeild: 3.16%
Previous Dividend: $0.57
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.57
Previous Dividend: $2.19
Expected next dividend best case: $0.58
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.56
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.53
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.94%
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-29--$0.57
2021-12-30--$0.55
2021-06-29--$0.52
2022-03-30--$0.55
2021-09-29--$0.52
2021-03-30--$0.52
Dividend growth rate is -376.35% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
14.01%
Net debt to equity ratio:
11.33%
Debt to assets ratio:
9.35%
Net debt to assets ratio:
7.56%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -82.69% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
238.36
Interest coverage ratio is 1097.07% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-14.72%
Annual debt growth is -114% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.90%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.455
Statistical significance of correlation:
NHC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.432
Stock price is 5.28% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.432
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.022
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.029
Kurtosis
3.807
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.461
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NHC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
4.75%
Operating profit margin is -166.49% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
6.27%
Effective tax rate is -71.26% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
14.65%
Return on equity (ROE) is -17.86% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
9.77%
Return on assets (ROA) is 123.77% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.77
Current ratio is -3.64% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.54%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
81.1K
Each employee generates -77% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
14.1K
Each employee generates -74% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
10.2K
Each employee generates -65% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 2.8K
Each employee generates -141% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
75.0K
Each employee generates -141% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
NHC
CEL-SCI CORPORATION (XNYS:CVM)
Zomedica Corp (XNYS:ZOM)
Senseonics Holdings, Inc. (XNYS:SENS)
STEREOTAXIS, INC. (XNYS:STXS)
LINEAGE CELL THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNYS:LCTX)
INFUSYSTEM HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:INFU)
ONCOCYTE CORPORATION (XNAS:OCX)
AMPIO PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNYS:AMPE)
IBIO, INC. (XNYS:IBIO)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.05B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
696.06M
696.06M
-
296.11M
992.17M
4.27M
766.00K
40.27M
182.59M
49.92M
132.64M
142.04M
8.91M
132.64M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
9.76M
Differed Income Tax :
2.60M
Stock Based Compensation :
712.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 52250.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 5624.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 6654.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 3625.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 27457.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 8962.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 14128.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
56.99M
149.04M
206.03M
101.75M
8.59M
67.66M
384.02M
670.39M
168.30M
7.04M
2.48M
-
124.79M
972.99M
-
1.36B
25.84M
32.77M
-
5.52M
152.36M
216.49M
126.81M
94.58M
229.47M
-
445.96M
154.00K
675.89M
- 3455.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
992.17M
905.32M
1.35B
151.51M
159.58M
102.6M
16.95M
224.00K
- 5920.00K
- 1147.00K
-
- 146.00K
- 8493.00K
- 664.00K
- 10450.00K
-
- 43827.00K
75.92M
119.74M
- 27457.00K
- 8962.00K
- 36419.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NHC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$70.96
$303.81
$309.80
$315.91
$322.14