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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
National Fuel Gas Company (XNYS:NFG) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NFG
Name:
NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY (XNYS:NFG)
Sector:
- 42008.00K
Industry:
Oil & Gas Integrated
CEO:
Mr. David Bauer
Total Employees:
2,188
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -19.87% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY(NFG) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND OIL & GAS INTEGRATED INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
70.5
One Month Price Target:
$70.77
Six Month Price Target :
$72.15
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$73.79
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$70.32
Price Upper limit ($) :
$70.79
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$67.71
This week:
$64.27
This month :
$58.04
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
6.41B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
91.48M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.32%
-15.15%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$83.42
$77.42
$57.58
$63.58
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$75.46
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$74.18
$65.52
$66.82
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NFG
Sharpe Ratio:
3.71%
Comparison:
NFG, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 21.21% higher than the industry
& ratio is 62.82% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NFG
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.41%
Monthly returns:
1.63%
Yearly returns:
19.62%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -0.01% below industry average
Classification:
NFG, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.51
Statistical test of Returns:
NFG has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.96%
Weekly Volatility:
4.39%
Monthly Volatility:
8.79%
Yearly Volatility:
30.43%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.55%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -20.94% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.95%
Weekly VaR:
-8.84%
Monthly VaR:
-17.68%
How Much Can the price of
NFG
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-15%
Worst case (decline):
-61.23%
This translates to price declining to:
$60.14
This translates to price declining to:
$27.33
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NFG is a 24.76% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 6.88% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -19.21% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NFG
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.69
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.813
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.15
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.356
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.428
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.55
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.83
Beta is -62.04% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.962
Beta is -27.78% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
12.64%
Sustainable growth rate is 75.35% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.117
Alpha is 18.51% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 745% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NFG
Equity cost of capital:
0.079
Equity cost of capital is -18.79% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.06%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.46%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.52%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.52%
WACC is -25.46% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$21.85
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.06
Annual revenue growth rate is -626.30% below industry average
EPS:
$5.15
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
8.83%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -73.42% lower than the Oil & Gas Integrated industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 7.22%
Equity growth rate per share is -34.45% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$28.75
EBITDA per share
$11.95
Valuation Analysis Today of
NFG
P/E Ratio:
13.11
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
10.59
P/E ratio is 23.87% higher than main peers & is -9.67% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $74.76
NFG is -5.70% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $42.25
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $26.45
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.23
Price to sales ratio is 68.28% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.06
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-12.52%
Net income growth rate is -2614.95% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 8.77%
Dividend yeild: 2.61%
Previous Dividend: $0.48
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.48
Previous Dividend: $1.84
Expected next dividend best case: $0.48
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.47
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.45
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.89%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 30/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-29--$0.48
2021-12-30--$0.46
2021-06-29--$0.46
2022-03-30--$0.46
2021-09-29--$0.46
2021-03-30--$0.45
Dividend growth rate is -55.84% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
124.61%
Net debt to equity ratio:
128.73%
Debt to assets ratio:
34.65%
Net debt to assets ratio:
35.79%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -53.27% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
8.77
Interest coverage ratio is -59.64% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
4.80%
Annual debt growth is -128% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.541
Statistical significance of correlation:
NFG has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.584
Stock price is -7.43% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.584
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.046
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.053
Kurtosis
9.082
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.126
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NFG
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
170%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
36.94%
Operating profit margin is 171.87% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
170%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.75%
Effective tax rate is -5.12% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
22.42%
Return on equity (ROE) is 42.99% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.23%
Return on assets (ROA) is -0.98% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
0.63
Current ratio is 24.02% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
27.6
Cash conversion cycle is -18.30% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 19.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.16%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
913.5K
Each employee generates -72% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
499.4K
Each employee generates -41% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
216.3K
Each employee generates -41% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 19.2K
Each employee generates -119% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
3.2M
Each employee generates -119% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
NFG
NOV INC. (XNYS:NOV)
Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited (XNYS:SHI)
ANTERO RESOURCES CORPORATION (XNYS:AR)
VALVOLINE INC. (XNYS:VVV)
HF SINCLAIR CORPORATION (XNYS:DINO)
Cosan SA (XNYS:CSAN)
SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY COMPANY (XNYS:SWN)
SHELL MIDSTREAM PARTNERS UNT (XNYS:SHLX)
ANTERO MIDSTREAM CORPORATION (XNYS:AM)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�8%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.00B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.16B
838.53M
-
-
-
-
100.16M
100.16M
-
124.55M
347.66M
1.09B
738.37M
473.16M
620.57M
147.41M
473.16M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
44.12M
Stock Based Compensation :
5.49M
Change in Working Capital :
- 103771.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 1622.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
93.25M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
171.48M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2022
Q1
79.07M
-
79.07M
324.61M
102.72M
60.80M
567.19M
6.49B
5.48M
-
106.48M
-
419.77M
7.02B
-
7.59B
129.93M
166.00M
79.00K
34.89M
565.31M
896.14M
2.63B
1.15B
4.58B
-
5.48B
91.44M
1.28B
- 277026.0K
-
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
1.26B
2.11B
7.59B
-
2.80B
2.7B
30.00M
- 199710.00K
- 169710.00K
-
-
- 8859.00K
- 41487.00K
7.50M
- 42846.00K
-
- 41073.00K
79.07M
120.14M
171.48M
- 213491.00K
- 42008.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NFG
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$79.32
$83.03
$86.90
$90.96
$95.21