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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
National Beverage Corp. (XNAS:FIZZ) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FIZZ
Name:
NATIONAL BEVERAGE CORP. (XNAS:FIZZ)
Sector:
168.46M
Industry:
Beverages�Non-Alcoholic
CEO:
Mr. Nick Caporella
Total Employees:
1,580
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -1475.21% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL BEVERAGE CORP.(FIZZ) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BEVERAGES�NON-ALCOHOLIC INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
53.29
One Month Price Target:
$53.55
Six Month Price Target :
$54.84
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$56.4
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$53.07
Price Upper limit ($) :
$53.66
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$49.8
This week:
$45.49
This month :
$37.7
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.76B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
93.34M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
40.17%
-13.41%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$69.45
$61.92
$37.13
$44.66
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$59.48
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$57.87
$47.08
$48.71
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FIZZ
Sharpe Ratio:
4.30%
Comparison:
FIZZ, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 6.56% higher than the industry
& ratio is 88.54% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FIZZ
Daily returns:
0.15%
Weekly returns:
0.74%
Monthly returns:
2.98%
Yearly returns:
36.41%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -1.88% below industry average
Classification:
FIZZ, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.23
Statistical test of Returns:
FIZZ has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.26%
Weekly Volatility:
7.28%
Monthly Volatility:
14.57%
Yearly Volatility:
50.47%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.77%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -45.76% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.54%
Weekly VaR:
-14.63%
Monthly VaR:
-29.26%
How Much Can the price of
FIZZ
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$40.41
This translates to price declining to:
$7.99
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FIZZ is a 106.50% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 76.90% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 24.02% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FIZZ
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.87
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.792
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.12
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.817
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.332
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.465
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.67
Beta is 29.51% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.913
Beta is -4.99% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.266
Alpha is -1.37% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1696% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FIZZ
Equity cost of capital:
0.091
Equity cost of capital is -3.32% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.56%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$21.34
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
13.97
Annual revenue growth rate is -85.88% below industry average
EPS:
$1.74
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
4.84%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -75.49% lower than the Beverages�Non-Alcoholic industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.91
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 300.16%
Equity growth rate per share is 285.93% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$0.31
EBITDA per share
$4.56
Valuation Analysis Today of
FIZZ
P/E Ratio:
31.38
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
89.23
P/E ratio is -64.84% lower than main peers & is -74.31% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $212.54
FIZZ is -74.93% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $77.71
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $66.00
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.5
Price to sales ratio is -60.74% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
13.97
Price to free cash flow: 27.84
Price to free cash flow ratio is -69.32% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
16.17%
Net income growth rate is -112.32% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 99.01%
Dividend yeild: 11.26%
Previous Dividend: $3.00
Previous adjusted dividend: $3.00
Previous Dividend: $6.00
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $3.00
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 05/12/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 14/03/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 03/02/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 02/11/2022
Previous dividend record date: 13/12/2021
Previous dividend declaration date: 12/02/2021
Dividend History:
2021-12-10--$3.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
2020-12-03--$3.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
8.10%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-42.12%
Debt to assets ratio:
5.17%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-26.91%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -90.12% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-11.20%
Annual debt growth is 498% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in previous year: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.192
Statistical significance of correlation:
FIZZ has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.541
Stock price is -64.41% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.541
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.033
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.062
Kurtosis
35.003
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
2.819
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FIZZ
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
149%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
18.60%
Operating profit margin is 28.81% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
149%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.62%
Effective tax rate is 20.86% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
79.41%
Return on equity (ROE) is 154.85% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
50.73%
Return on assets (ROA) is 348.35% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
2.48
Current ratio is 20.55% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-8.9
Cash conversion cycle is -109.82% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 10.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.16%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.3M
Each employee generates 45% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
269.4K
Each employee generates 57% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
178.9K
Each employee generates 52% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
106.6K
Each employee generates 370% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
121.7K
Each employee generates 370% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FIZZ
GRAND CANYON EDUCATION, INC. (XNAS:LOPE)
THE HAIN CELESTIAL GROUP, INC. (XNAS:HAIN)
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (XNAS:GO)
LANCASTER COLONY CORPORATION (XNAS:LANC)
CELSIUS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CELH)
HELEN OF TROY LIMITED (XNAS:HELE)
THE SIMPLY GOOD FOODS COMPANY (XNAS:SMPL)
OLLIE'S BARGAIN OUTLET HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:OLLI)
J & J SNACK FOODS CORP. (XNAS:JJSF)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�4%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Sell
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
1.99B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.25B
737.86M
-
-
367.42M
-
-
367.42M
-
-
55.63M
425.71M
370.44M
282.68M
370.08M
87.40M
282.68M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
31.16M
Differed Income Tax :
- 132.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
462.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 11977.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 1521.00K
Other Working Capital:
217.75M
Other Non-Cash Items:
114.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
193.77M
Investments in PP&E:
- 25314.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
5/1/21
2021
FY
193.59M
-
193.59M
86.44M
71.48M
13.43M
364.94M
172.70M
13.15M
1.62M
-
-
4.83M
192.30M
-
557.24M
88.75M
14.80M
89.00K
-
43.64M
147.19M
28.84M
7.92M
54.05M
-
201.24M
1.02M
337.67M
3.0M
14.14M
May 1, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
1.62B
356.00M
557.24M
-
43.64M
- 149952.0K
-
-
- 25314.00K
-
-
-
- 279876.00K
491.00K
- 279385.00K
-
- 110929.00K
193.59M
304.52M
193.77M
- 25314.00K
168.46M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FIZZ
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$56.68
$59.99
$63.48
$67.18
$71.10