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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Nasdaq, Inc. (XNAS:NDAQ) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NDAQ
Name:
Nasdaq, Inc. (XNAS:NDAQ)
Sector:
570.00M
Industry:
Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
CEO:
Ms. Adena Friedman
Total Employees:
6,214
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -121.61% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NASDAQ, INC.(NDAQ) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND FINANCIAL DATA & STOCK EXCHANGES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
59.68
One Month Price Target:
$60.
Six Month Price Target :
$61.59
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$63.5
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$59.54
Price Upper limit ($) :
$59.94
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$57.32
This week:
$54.4
This month :
$49.13
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
29.78B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
491.23M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.9%
-11.18%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$70.62
$65.51
$48.74
$53.85
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$63.85
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$62.76
$55.50
$56.60
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NDAQ
Sharpe Ratio:
4.55%
Comparison:
NDAQ, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 68.39% higher than the industry
& ratio is 99.69% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NDAQ
Daily returns:
0.10%
Weekly returns:
0.49%
Monthly returns:
1.97%
Yearly returns:
18.99%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 24.70% above industry average
Classification:
NDAQ, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.92
Statistical test of Returns:
NDAQ has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.97%
Weekly Volatility:
4.41%
Monthly Volatility:
8.83%
Yearly Volatility:
30.57%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.55%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -72.16% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.95%
Weekly VaR:
-8.84%
Monthly VaR:
-17.68%
How Much Can the price of
NDAQ
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-15%
Worst case (decline):
-61.26%
This translates to price declining to:
$51.02
This translates to price declining to:
$23.12
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NDAQ is a 24.81% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 6.92% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -15.27% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NDAQ
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.95
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.733
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.037
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.566
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.774
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.785
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.351
Beta is -29.58% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.802
Beta is 18.63% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
12.96%
Sustainable growth rate is -63.48% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.140
Alpha is 35.44% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 892% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NDAQ
Equity cost of capital:
0.097
Equity cost of capital is 11.84% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.76%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.84%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.45%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.45%
WACC is 4.87% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$11.75
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.87
Annual revenue growth rate is 10.42% above the industry average
EPS:
$6.97
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
14.55%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -6.86% lower than the Financial Data & Stock Exchanges industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$6.76
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 24.55%
Equity growth rate per share is -15.22% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$10.74
EBITDA per share
$3.89
Valuation Analysis Today of
NDAQ
P/E Ratio:
26.44
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
12.91
P/E ratio is 104.80% higher than main peers & is -14.99% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $216.80
NDAQ is -72.47% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $59.12
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $32.04
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.08
Price to sales ratio is -48.79% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.87
Price to free cash flow: 8.83
Price to free cash flow ratio is -17.51% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
158.23%
Net income growth rate is 147.43% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 7.59%
Dividend yeild: 3.72%
Previous Dividend: $0.60
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.60
Previous Dividend: $2.22
Expected next dividend best case: $0.63
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.57
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.51
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.56%
Expected next dividend payment date: 22/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 24/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/10/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-09--$0.60
2021-12-02--$0.54
2021-06-10--$0.54
2022-03-10--$0.54
2021-09-09--$0.54
2021-03-11--$0.49
Dividend growth rate is -71.66% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
87.78%
Net debt to equity ratio:
97.94%
Debt to assets ratio:
25.35%
Net debt to assets ratio:
28.28%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -53.93% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
16.35
Interest coverage ratio is -45.56% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
4.79%
Annual debt growth is -83% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.775
Statistical significance of correlation:
NDAQ has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.632
Stock price is 22.61% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.632
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.003
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.003
Kurtosis
9.599
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.236
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NDAQ
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
174%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
25.66%
Operating profit margin is -26.39% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
174%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.60%
Effective tax rate is 1.19% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
19.49%
Return on equity (ROE) is -61.70% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.63%
Return on assets (ROA) is -50.16% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
0.92
Current ratio is -45.37% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
16.6
Cash conversion cycle is -32.50% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.13%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
928.7K
Each employee generates 9% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
307.9K
Each employee generates -29% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
188.6K
Each employee generates -29% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
91.7K
Each employee generates -46% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.0M
Each employee generates -46% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
NDAQ
INTERACTIVE BROKERS GROUP, INC. (XNAS:IBKR)
FIFTH THIRD BANCORP (XNAS:FITB)
Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company (XNAS:WTW)
NORTHERN TRUST CORPORATION (XNAS:NTRS)
GRAB HOLDINGS LIMITED (XNAS:GRAB)
HUNTINGTON BANCSHARES INCORPORATED (XNAS:HBAN)
ANZU SPECIAL ACQUISITION I UNT (XNAS:ANZUU)
CMLFU
Signature Bank (XNAS:SBNY)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�25%
Hold�25%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
5.77B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.26B
2.51B
-
611.00M
667.00M
56.00M
283.00M
950.00M
-
117.00M
282.00M
1.91B
1.48B
1.17B
1.51B
342.00M
1.17B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
67.00M
Differed Income Tax :
17.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
25.00M
Change in Working Capital :
211.00M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
292.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
605.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 35000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 102000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
486.00M
225.00M
711.00M
621.00M
-
6.85B
8.18B
981.00M
8.34B
2.75B
-
-
575.00M
12.65B
-
20.82B
186.00M
1.10B
-
619.00M
6.95B
8.85B
5.28B
241.00M
5.95B
-
14.80B
2.00M
6.66B
- 1670000.0K
1.02B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
4.21B
6.01B
20.81B
-
6.38B
5.9B
76.00M
- 329000.00K
- 390000.00K
-
-
- 519000.00K
- 89000.00K
976.00M
368.00M
- 164000.00K
419.00M
5.92B
5.50B
605.00M
- 35000.00K
570.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NDAQ
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$63.82
$125.79
$133.84
$142.39
$151.49