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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Nanostring Technologies, Inc. (XNAS:NSTG) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
NSTG
Name:
NANOSTRING TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:NSTG)
Sector:
- 36172.00K
Industry:
Medical Instruments & Supplies
CEO:
Mr. R. Bradley Gray
Total Employees:
766
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -823.60% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF NANOSTRING TECHNOLOGIES, INC.(NSTG) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & SUPPLIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
13.19
One Month Price Target:
$13.33
Six Month Price Target :
$14.02
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$14.84
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$13.09
Price Upper limit ($) :
$13.3
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$11.89
This week:
$10.29
This month :
$7.39
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
611.86M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
46.49M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
19.07%
-33.98%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$19.21
$16.47
$7.17
$9.91
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$15.57
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$14.99
$10.80
$11.39
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
NSTG
Sharpe Ratio:
0.33%
Comparison:
NSTG, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -79.68% lower than the industry
& is -85.72% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
NSTG
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.12%
Monthly returns:
0.49%
Yearly returns:
14.68%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -60.01% below industry average
Classification:
NSTG, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.98
Statistical test of Returns:
NSTG has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.80%
Weekly Volatility:
10.73%
Monthly Volatility:
21.46%
Yearly Volatility:
74.35%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.63%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -24.43% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.83%
Weekly VaR:
-21.98%
Monthly VaR:
-43.97%
How Much Can the price of
NSTG
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-39%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$8.10
This translates to price declining to:
$1.98
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
NSTG is a 210.33% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 165.86% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 65.31% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
NSTG
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.86
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.304
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.844
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.691
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.541
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.02
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.476
Beta is 26.18% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.989
Beta is 88.20% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.100
Alpha is -310.93% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -639% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
NSTG
Equity cost of capital:
0.159
Equity cost of capital is 60.21% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.90%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.99%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.36%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.36%
WACC is -5.35% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.11
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.22
Annual revenue growth rate is -296.06% below industry average
EPS:
-$2.78
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
29.12%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 151.79% higher than the Medical Instruments & Supplies industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$5.29
EBITDA per share
-$2.44
Valuation Analysis Today of
NSTG
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
17.62
-
-
NSTG is -109.51% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.24
Price to sales ratio is -42.79% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.22
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-8.34%
Net income growth rate is -92.11% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
169.31%
Net debt to equity ratio:
105.07%
Debt to assets ratio:
55.32%
Net debt to assets ratio:
34.33%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 54.12% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-15.11
Interest coverage ratio is -121.30% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
45.55%
Annual debt growth is -59% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.03%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.507
Statistical significance of correlation:
NSTG has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.505
Stock price is 0.34% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.505
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.048
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.135
Kurtosis
7.871
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.87
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
NSTG
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
213%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-82.90%
Operating profit margin is -719.30% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
213%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.19%
Effective tax rate is -100.59% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-87.43%
Return on equity (ROE) is 91.75% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-28.57%
Return on assets (ROA) is -498.86% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.2x
Current Ratio:
7.81
Current ratio is 113.81% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
66.1
Cash conversion cycle is 25.41% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-6.04%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
188.7K
Each employee generates -47% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 148.0K
Each employee generates -233% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 165.9K
Each employee generates -313% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 47.2K
Each employee generates 721% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
75.2K
Each employee generates 721% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 10.57%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 3984.14% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
NSTG
VERACYTE, INC. (XNAS:VCYT)
BURFORD CAPITAL LIMITED (XNYS:BUR)
INMODE LTD (XNAS:INMD)
REATA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:RETA)
CRONOS GROUP INC. (XNAS:CRON)
SURGERY PARTNERS, INC. (XNAS:SGRY)
ARVINAS, INC. (XNAS:ARVN)
INTRA-CELLULAR THERAPIES, INC. (XNAS:ITCI)
Burning Rock Biotech Ltd (XNAS:BNR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
144.55M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
67.46M
77.09M
71.86M
-
93.46M
-
31.60M
196.92M
682.00K
7.50M
5.97M
- 113378.00K
- 119828.00K
- 127042.00K
- 97677.00K
188.00K
- 127042.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.54M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
7.67M
Change in Working Capital :
- 2496.00K
Accounts Receivables:
9.43M
Other Working Capital:
- 4201.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.53M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 30253.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 3002.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 10800.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
98.46M
213.62M
312.08M
30.38M
34.59M
10.08M
387.13M
51.27M
-
-
-
-
6.32M
57.59M
-
444.72M
18.43M
5.12M
-
9.32M
16.73M
49.59M
246.01M
-
249.83M
-
299.42M
5.00K
- 689253.00K
- 1292.0K
835.85M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
264.38M
145.31M
444.72M
-
251.13M
152.7M
37.42M
- 2917.00K
20.71M
- 73.00K
-
-
-
1.03M
960.00K
- 23.00K
- 8611.00K
98.46M
107.07M
- 30253.00K
- 5919.00K
- 36172.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
NSTG
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$14.89
$16.75
$18.84
$21.20
$23.86