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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Myriad Genetics, Inc. (XNAS:MYGN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MYGN
Name:
MYRIAD GENETICS, INC. (XNAS:MYGN)
Sector:
- 52800.00K
Industry:
Diagnostics & Research
CEO:
Mr. R. Bryan Riggsbee
Total Employees:
2,400
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 1.08% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MYRIAD GENETICS, INC.(MYGN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DIAGNOSTICS & RESEARCH INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
21.82
One Month Price Target:
$22.03
Six Month Price Target :
$23.09
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$24.37
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$21.68
Price Upper limit ($) :
$21.99
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$20.
This week:
$17.76
This month :
$13.69
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.72B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
80.63M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
25.16%
-28.23%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$30.26
$26.39
$13.38
$17.25
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$25.13
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$24.30
$18.50
$19.34
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MYGN
Sharpe Ratio:
1.42%
Comparison:
MYGN, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -43.48% lower than the industry
& is -37.56% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MYGN
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.34%
Monthly returns:
1.34%
Yearly returns:
27.92%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -42.37% below industry average
Classification:
MYGN, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.49
Statistical test of Returns:
MYGN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.09%
Weekly Volatility:
9.14%
Monthly Volatility:
18.29%
Yearly Volatility:
63.34%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.39%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -66.10% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.33%
Weekly VaR:
-18.63%
Monthly VaR:
-37.25%
How Much Can the price of
MYGN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-32%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$14.80
This translates to price declining to:
$3.27
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MYGN is a 162.94% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 125.26% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 5.91% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MYGN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.74
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.904
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.278
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.706
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.682
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.923
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.021
Beta is 70.30% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.181
Beta is 47.20% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.010
Alpha is -93.84% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 65% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MYGN
Equity cost of capital:
0.151
Equity cost of capital is 33.98% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
14.77%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.01%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.95%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.95%
WACC is 64.63% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$8.46
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.85
Annual revenue growth rate is -117.24% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.11
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.95
EBITDA per share
$0.35
Valuation Analysis Today of
MYGN
P/E Ratio:
581.41
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
905.27
P/E ratio is -35.77% lower than main peers & is 1463.93% higher than the industry
-
MYGN is -633.57% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.58
Price to sales ratio is -72.87% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.85
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-118.46%
Net income growth rate is -48.17% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
8.05%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-7.93%
Debt to assets ratio:
6.09%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-6.00%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -87.46% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.22
Interest coverage ratio is -122.18% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-66.86%
Annual debt growth is -164% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.329
Statistical significance of correlation:
MYGN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.488
Stock price is -32.52% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.488
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.017
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.041
Kurtosis
9.206
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.007
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MYGN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
285%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-24.82%
Operating profit margin is -77.93% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
285%
Effective Tax Rate:
75.81%
Effective tax rate is 295.07% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-0.86%
Return on equity (ROE) is -104.11% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-0.65%
Return on assets (ROA) is -99.76% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
2.57
Current ratio is -48.19% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
1.2
Cash conversion cycle is -97.53% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-123.17%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
284.3K
Each employee generates -24% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
11.7K
Each employee generates -61% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 3.4K
Each employee generates -121% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 22.0K
Each employee generates 911% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
345.0K
Each employee generates 911% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 6.09%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -438.15% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
MYGN
ALIGNMENT HEALTHCARE, INC. (XNAS:ALHC)
TRANSFORMERS AND RECTIFIERS (INDIA) LIMITED (XNSE:TRIL)
IRONWOOD PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:IRWD)
CASSAVA SCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:SAVA)
CAREDX, INC. (XNAS:CDNA)
ALLOGENE THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:ALLO)
BIOCRYST PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:BCRX)
CYTEK BIOSCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:CTKB)
Valneva SE (XNAS:VALN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�0%
Hold�38%
Sell�13%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
682.40M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
195.30M
487.10M
80.00M
-
502.90M
-
-
582.90M
600.00K
4.50M
57.40M
28.00M
- 169400.00K
- 8200.00K
- 33900.00K
- 25700.00K
- 8200.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
13.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 5700.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
10.10M
Change in Working Capital :
- 57400.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 10500.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 4500.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
14.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 46500.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 52100.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
165.20M
103.20M
268.40M
101.70M
15.60M
41.70M
427.40M
116.60M
238.80M
393.60M
70.80M
-
8.20M
828.00M
-
1.26B
27.10M
13.40M
4.10M
700.00K
124.80M
166.00M
76.50M
32.90M
139.30M
-
305.30M
800.00K
- 274700.00K
- 7600.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
778.20M
950.10M
1.26B
174.00M
89.90M
- 75300.0K
17.10M
- 6300.00K
- 41300.00K
-
-
-
-
- 4800.00K
- 4800.00K
- 600.00K
- 93200.00K
165.20M
258.40M
- 46500.00K
- 6300.00K
- 52800.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MYGN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$24.45
$27.30
$30.49
$34.06
$38.04