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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Myr Group Inc. (XNAS:MYRG) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MYRG
Name:
MYR GROUP INC. (XNAS:MYRG)
Sector:
7.43M
Industry:
Engineering & Construction
CEO:
Mr. Richard Swartz
Total Employees:
7,600
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -47.35% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MYR GROUP INC.(MYRG) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
90.81
One Month Price Target:
$91.36
Six Month Price Target :
$94.13
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$97.44
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$90.5
Price Upper limit ($) :
$91.48
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$85.07
This week:
$77.98
This month :
$65.15
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.48B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
16.66M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.69%
-21.72%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$117.39
$104.90
$64.23
$76.72
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$100.83
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$98.16
$80.76
$83.46
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MYRG
Sharpe Ratio:
6.02%
Comparison:
MYRG, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 51.58% higher than the industry
& ratio is 164.16% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MYRG
Daily returns:
0.20%
Weekly returns:
1.00%
Monthly returns:
4.00%
Yearly returns:
37.49%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 28.01% above industry average
Classification:
MYRG, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.78
Statistical test of Returns:
MYRG has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.17%
Weekly Volatility:
7.10%
Monthly Volatility:
14.19%
Yearly Volatility:
49.17%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.91%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -71.30% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.32%
Weekly VaR:
-14.13%
Monthly VaR:
-28.26%
How Much Can the price of
MYRG
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$70.21
This translates to price declining to:
$13.62
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MYRG is a 99.44% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 70.86% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -6.78% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MYRG
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.09
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.694
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.981
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.984
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.901
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.905
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.83
Beta is -40.60% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.325
Beta is -17.97% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
17.87%
Sustainable growth rate is 29.32% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.374
Alpha is 48.03% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2380% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MYRG
Equity cost of capital:
0.106
Equity cost of capital is -13.34% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.59%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.05%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.62%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.62%
WACC is 16.11% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$152.64
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.82
Annual revenue growth rate is 16.04% above the industry average
EPS:
$5.00
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
29.68%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 131.22% higher than the Engineering & Construction industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.42
-
-
Debt per share
$4.49
EBITDA per share
$9.88
Valuation Analysis Today of
MYRG
P/E Ratio:
18.49
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
773.88
P/E ratio is -97.61% lower than main peers & is -36.23% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $145.00
MYRG is -37.37% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.59
Price to sales ratio is -90.35% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.82
Price to free cash flow: 37.54
Price to free cash flow ratio is -56.31% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
166.54%
Net income growth rate is -2409.64% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
13.96%
Net debt to equity ratio:
12.64%
Debt to assets ratio:
6.21%
Net debt to assets ratio:
5.62%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -88.32% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
92.7
Interest coverage ratio is 280.97% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-51.04%
Annual debt growth is -132% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.58%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.584
Statistical significance of correlation:
MYRG has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.523
Stock price is 11.54% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.523
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.011
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.02
Kurtosis
10.639
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.295
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MYRG
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
52%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
4.56%
Operating profit margin is -133.17% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
52%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.61%
Effective tax rate is 18.87% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
15.99%
Return on equity (ROE) is 36.21% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.11%
Return on assets (ROA) is 72.85% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.44
Current ratio is -48.95% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
54.8
Cash conversion cycle is 15.97% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.89%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
334.5K
Each employee generates -44% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
21.7K
Each employee generates -42% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
11.3K
Each employee generates -1829% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
1.0K
Each employee generates -115% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
64.5K
Each employee generates -115% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
MYRG
THE SHYFT GROUP, INC. (XNAS:SHYF)
CATM
ASTEC INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:ASTE)
FORTERRA, INC. (XNAS:FRTA)
H&E EQUIPMENT SERVICES, INC. (XNAS:HEES)
FUELCELL ENERGY, INC. (XNAS:FCEL)
SOLOW
MICROVAST HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:MVST)
AEROVIRONMENT, INC. (XNAS:AVAV)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�0%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.54B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.21B
328.51M
-
-
211.13M
-
4.50M
215.63M
65.00K
1.78M
49.01M
164.54M
116.05M
85.77M
113.76M
27.99M
85.77M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
14.67M
Differed Income Tax :
- 1.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
1.62M
Change in Working Capital :
- 15653.00K
Accounts Receivables:
2.90M
Other Working Capital:
- 4470.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
138.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
21.47M
Investments in PP&E:
- 14037.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 110576.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
18.73M
-
18.73M
646.79M
-
50.07M
715.60M
239.41M
110.59M
102.92M
2.79M
-
34.28M
489.98M
-
1.21B
223.70M
11.68M
2.87M
165.13M
97.75M
498.26M
74.84M
71.57M
171.04M
-
669.30M
170.00K
375.03M
1.8M
159.26M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.43B
536.28M
1.21B
-
86.52M
67.8M
-
1.03M
- 123586.00K
- 437.00K
-
-
-
38.41M
37.97M
790.00K
- 63360.00K
18.73M
82.09M
21.47M
- 14037.00K
7.43M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MYRG
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$97.93
$1,443.56
$1,549.01
$1,662.16
$1,783.57