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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Mvb Financial Corp. (XNAS:MVBF) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MVBF
Name:
MVB FINANCIAL CORP. (XNAS:MVBF)
Sector:
- 58566.00K
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Larry Mazza
Total Employees:
458
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 305.48% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MVB FINANCIAL CORP.(MVBF) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
31.35
One Month Price Target:
$31.51
Six Month Price Target :
$32.31
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$33.27
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$31.2
Price Upper limit ($) :
$31.57
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$29.13
This week:
$26.39
This month :
$21.43
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
384.73M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
12.23M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
28.06%
-31.42%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$41.63
$36.88
$21.07
$25.82
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$35.33
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$34.31
$27.36
$28.39
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MVBF
Sharpe Ratio:
3.05%
Comparison:
MVBF, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 148.15% higher than the industry
& ratio is 33.74% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MVBF
Daily returns:
0.12%
Weekly returns:
0.58%
Monthly returns:
2.31%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 154.16% above industry average
Classification:
MVBF, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.84
Statistical test of Returns:
MVBF has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.50%
Weekly Volatility:
7.83%
Monthly Volatility:
15.65%
Yearly Volatility:
54.22%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.10%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -68.57% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.07%
Weekly VaR:
-15.82%
Monthly VaR:
-31.63%
How Much Can the price of
MVBF
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$23.00
This translates to price declining to:
$4.70
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MVBF is a 123.25% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 91.26% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 22.53% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MVBF
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.91
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.669
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.946
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.748
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.487
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.764
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.757
Beta is 20.56% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -5.30% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
14.12%
Sustainable growth rate is 54.66% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.183
Alpha is 1479.91% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1167% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MVBF
Equity cost of capital:
0.094
Equity cost of capital is -3.59% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.70%
Before-tax cost of debt:
8.38%
After-tax cost of debt:
6.62%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
6.62%
WACC is -18.78% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$9.95
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.45
Annual revenue growth rate is 57.95% above the industry average
EPS:
$2.66
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
11.11%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -7.59% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is -358.25% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$5.98
EBITDA per share
$4.19
Valuation Analysis Today of
MVBF
P/E Ratio:
14.56
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
36.51
P/E ratio is -60.14% lower than main peers & is 17.30% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $33.01
MVBF is -5.02% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.15
Price to sales ratio is -26.33% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.45
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is -21.39% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
198.18%
Net income growth rate is 259.86% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 6.07%
Dividend yeild: 2.01%
Previous Dividend: $0.17
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.17
Previous Dividend: $0.63
Expected next dividend best case: $0.20
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.14
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.12
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 9.68%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 30/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/01/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-31--$0.17
2021-11-30--$0.15
2021-05-28--$0.12
2022-02-28--$0.17
2021-08-31--$0.14
2021-02-26--$0.10
Dividend growth rate is -58.91% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
27.78%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-107.61%
Debt to assets ratio:
2.53%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-9.78%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.48% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
8.37
Interest coverage ratio is 910.18% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
68.24%
Annual debt growth is 21449% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.356
Statistical significance of correlation:
MVBF has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -28.97% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.008
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.016
Kurtosis
20.046
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.033
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MVBF
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
3.62%
Operating profit margin is -89.91% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
20.56%
Effective tax rate is -4.60% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
12.89%
Return on equity (ROE) is 8.01% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.17%
Return on assets (ROA) is -49.16% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.30%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
265.7K
Each employee generates -30% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
112.0K
Each employee generates -50% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
74.0K
Each employee generates -48% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 127.9K
Each employee generates -254% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.1M
Each employee generates -254% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
MVBF
BANK OF MARIN BANCORP (XNAS:BMRC)
MERCHANTS BANCORP (XNAS:MBINP)
OXFORD LANE CAPITAL CORP. (XNAS:OXLCM)
FARMERS NATIONAL BANC CORP. (XNAS:FMNB)
CAPITAL SOUTHWEST CORPORATION (XNAS:CSWC)
KVSB
GUARANTY BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:GNTY)
DONEGAL GROUP INC. (XNAS:DGICB)
NORTH ATLANTIC ACQUISITION CORPORATION (XNAS:NAAC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
121.68M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
75.96M
76.64M
678.00K
-
-
87.63M
6.13M
2.65M
51.29M
4.40M
33.90M
41.93M
8.62M
33.90M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
851.00K
Differed Income Tax :
9.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
778.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 60937.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 711.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 57339.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 1227.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 64939.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
356.20M
395.30M
751.50M
104.40M
-
-
-
25.36M
3.99M
-
472.81M
-
-
502.16M
3.40B
2.89B
35.33M
-
-
-
-
-
73.09M
-
73.09M
2.70B
2.63B
12.99M
139.02M
- 17162.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
263.08M
2.89B
868.11M
73.09M
- 283107.0K
70.17M
- 30984.00K
- 26982.00K
-
-
-
- 2059.00K
132.92M
130.86M
-
46.54M
353.97M
307.44M
- 57339.00K
- 1227.00K
- 58566.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MVBF
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$33.44
$62.12
$65.93
$69.97
$74.26