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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Msa Safety Incorporated (XNYS:MSA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MSA
Name:
MSA Safety Incorporated (XNYS:MSA)
Sector:
16.55M
Industry:
Security & Protection Services
CEO:
Mr. Nishan Vartanian
Total Employees:
4,800
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -570.98% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MSA SAFETY INCORPORATED(MSA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SECURITY & PROTECTION SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
115.66
One Month Price Target:
$116.25
Six Month Price Target :
$119.19
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$122.73
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$115.22
Price Upper limit ($) :
$116.13
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$110.16
This week:
$103.37
This month :
$91.08
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.53B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
39.14M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
20.81%
-11.91%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$141.17
$129.54
$90.15
$101.78
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$125.76
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$123.27
$105.53
$108.05
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MSA
Sharpe Ratio:
0.20%
Comparison:
MSA, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -88.69% lower than the industry
& is -91.33% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MSA
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.07%
Monthly returns:
0.27%
Yearly returns:
15.65%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -79.39% below industry average
Classification:
MSA, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.97
Statistical test of Returns:
MSA has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.32%
Weekly Volatility:
5.19%
Monthly Volatility:
10.38%
Yearly Volatility:
35.94%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.41%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -82.33% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.75%
Weekly VaR:
-10.62%
Monthly VaR:
-21.25%
How Much Can the price of
MSA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-73.61%
This translates to price declining to:
$94.10
This translates to price declining to:
$30.52
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MSA is a 49.98% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 28.49% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -26.10% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MSA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.91
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.601
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.85
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.544
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.735
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.801
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.306
Beta is -30.35% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.346
Beta is -32.43% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.062
Alpha is -287.69% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -392% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MSA
Equity cost of capital:
0.094
Equity cost of capital is -24.17% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.61%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.95%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.54%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.54%
WACC is -8.90% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$36.34
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
5.26
Annual revenue growth rate is -98.95% below industry average
EPS:
$0.51
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-46.47%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 304.96% higher than the Security & Protection Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.30
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 17.26%
Equity growth rate per share is 13.23% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$16.14
EBITDA per share
$2.27
Valuation Analysis Today of
MSA
P/E Ratio:
106.55
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
14.38
P/E ratio is 641.00% higher than main peers & is -14.68% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $63.70
MSA is 81.58% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $29.76
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $21.26
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.18
Price to sales ratio is -73.79% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
5.26
Price to free cash flow: 35.09
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-83.18%
Net income growth rate is 350.10% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 84.48%
Dividend yeild: 1.54%
Previous Dividend: $0.46
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.46
Previous Dividend: $1.78
Expected next dividend best case: $0.47
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.45
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.43
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.93%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/01/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/10/2022
Previous dividend record date: 16/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/02/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-13--$0.46
2021-11-12--$0.44
2021-05-14--$0.44
2022-02-11--$0.44
2021-08-13--$0.44
2021-02-18--$0.43
Dividend growth rate is -44.02% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
73.37%
Net debt to equity ratio:
57.19%
Debt to assets ratio:
26.15%
Net debt to assets ratio:
20.38%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -53.07% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.13
Interest coverage ratio is -84.96% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
81.46%
Annual debt growth is 97% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 29.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.682
Statistical significance of correlation:
MSA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.527
Stock price is 29.51% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.527
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0
Kurtosis
13.863
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.503
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MSA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
175%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
1.51%
Operating profit margin is -93.11% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
175%
Effective Tax Rate:
8.51%
Effective tax rate is -60.35% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
2.38%
Return on equity (ROE) is -62.75% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.85%
Return on assets (ROA) is -77.94% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
2.47
Current ratio is -56.04% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
48.9
Cash conversion cycle is -84.23% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
18.22%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
296.3K
Each employee generates 7% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
18.5K
Each employee generates -77% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
4.3K
Each employee generates -69% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
3.4K
Each employee generates -44% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
331.2K
Each employee generates -44% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -0.82%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -105.35% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
MSA
SIMPSON MANUFACTURING CO., INC. (XNYS:SSD)
THE TIMKEN COMPANY (XNYS:TKR)
UNUM GROUP (XNYS:UNMA)
TRINET GROUP, INC. (XNYS:TNET)
CURTISS-WRIGHT CORPORATION (XNYS:CW)
MANPOWERGROUP INC. (XNYS:MAN)
Stantec Inc. (XNYS:STN)
RBC
CRANE HOLDINGS, CO. (XNYS:CR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.42B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
799.05M
623.39M
57.89M
-
335.95M
-
-
393.84M
-
12.47M
53.98M
88.84M
21.41M
20.47M
22.66M
1.93M
20.47M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
14.17M
Differed Income Tax :
- 572.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
3.73M
Change in Working Capital :
- 31930.00K
Accounts Receivables:
13.37M
Other Working Capital:
- 5887.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
3.59M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
24.52M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 19973.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
147.30M
39.97M
187.27M
247.95M
321.60M
69.33M
826.15M
255.88M
631.82M
299.73M
-
34.80M
367.40M
1.59B
-
2.42B
108.41M
8.02M
14.36M
-
217.51M
333.94M
631.61M
556.27M
1.22B
-
1.55B
262.63M
1.07B
- 140993.0K
- 332760.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.19B
860.91M
2.42B
-
639.63M
492.3M
29.00M
- 7976.00K
1.05M
- 258000.00K
-
- 3659.00K
- 17292.00K
263.05M
- 15900.00K
- 3361.00K
6.31M
147.75M
141.44M
24.52M
- 7976.00K
16.55M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MSA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$123.34
$90.15
$95.66
$101.51
$107.71