_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Morphic Holding, Inc. (XNAS:MORF) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MORF
Name:
MORPHIC HOLDING, INC. (XNAS:MORF)
Sector:
- 28196.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
DR. Praveen Tipirneni
Total Employees:
101
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 1.22% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MORPHIC HOLDING, INC.(MORF) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
28.33
One Month Price Target:
$28.49
Six Month Price Target :
$29.3
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$30.26
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$28.07
Price Upper limit ($) :
$28.73
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$24.39
This week:
$19.52
This month :
$10.71
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.07B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
38.48M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
134.65%
-16.25%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$46.60
$38.13
$10.06
$18.53
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$35.37
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$33.57
$21.26
$23.09
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MORF
Sharpe Ratio:
3.59%
Comparison:
MORF, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 84.83% higher than the industry
& ratio is 57.67% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MORF
Daily returns:
0.26%
Weekly returns:
1.28%
Monthly returns:
5.14%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 144.30% above industry average
Classification:
MORF, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.28
Statistical test of Returns:
MORF has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
6.90%
Weekly Volatility:
15.42%
Monthly Volatility:
30.85%
Yearly Volatility:
106.87%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.48%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -49.54% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-13.91%
Weekly VaR:
-31.10%
Monthly VaR:
-62.21%
How Much Can the price of
MORF
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-52%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$13.58
This translates to price declining to:
$4.25
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MORF is a 339.07% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 276.15% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 45.09% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MORF
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.02
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.098
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.552
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.005
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.372
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.007
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.28
Beta is -20.60% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -11.79% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.515
Alpha is 263.16% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 3279% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MORF
Equity cost of capital:
0.101
Equity cost of capital is -8.42% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.00%
Before-tax cost of debt:
8.95%
After-tax cost of debt:
7.07%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
7.07%
WACC is 11.06% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.49
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.48
Annual revenue growth rate is -79.20% below industry average
EPS:
-$2.88
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-0.25%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -102.49% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.09
EBITDA per share
-$2.70
Valuation Analysis Today of
MORF
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
38.08
-
-
MORF is -110.96% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
57.64
Price to sales ratio is 42.32% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.48
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
49.04%
Net income growth rate is -30.52% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
1.11%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-36.71%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.88%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-28.97%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -97.92% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-240.61
Interest coverage ratio is 103.32% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.342
Statistical significance of correlation:
MORF has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is 0.46% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.027
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.109
Kurtosis
209.98
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
10.881
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MORF
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-561.50%
Operating profit margin is 30.98% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.54%
Effective tax rate is -109.45% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-33.74%
Return on equity (ROE) is -41.14% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-26.63%
Return on assets (ROA) is 30.52% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
8.89
Current ratio is 9.87% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 11.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-6.40%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
187.2K
Each employee generates -88% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 1026.8K
Each employee generates -366% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 1047.0K
Each employee generates -918% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 279.2K
Each employee generates -290% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
75.0K
Each employee generates -290% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 19.23%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -636.00% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
MORF
ATEA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:AVIR)
SILK ROAD MEDICAL, INC. (XNAS:SILK)
GenMark Diagnostics, Inc. (XLON:0IUT)
CEREVEL THERAPEUTICS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CERE)
IRONWOOD PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:IRWD)
Genetron Holdings Limited (XNAS:GTH)
LUMINEX RESOURCES CORP. (OTCM:LUMIF)
CYTOKINETICS, INCORPORATED (XNAS:CYTK)
KURA ONCOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:KURA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
18.91M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
9.56M
95.64M
29.45M
29.45M
-
-
125.09M
431.00K
431.00K
1.04M
- 103703.00K
- 106179.00K
- 105742.00K
- 105742.00K
570.00K
- 105742.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
263.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
6.77M
Change in Working Capital :
- 4299.00K
Accounts Receivables:
268.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 1374.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
607.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 28148.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 48.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 45076.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
119.84M
260.81M
380.65M
2.04M
-
6.80M
389.49M
6.86M
-
-
-
-
721.00K
7.58M
-
397.07M
3.50M
1.34M
-
30.31M
8.65M
43.79M
3.48M
-
39.91M
-
83.71M
4.00K
- 269538.00K
- 1792.0K
584.69M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
125.09M
313.37M
397.07M
-
4.81M
- 115028.0K
19.05M
-
- 26074.00K
-
-
-
-
2.63M
2.63M
-
- 51592.00K
120.40M
171.99M
- 28148.00K
- 48.00K
- 28196.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MORF
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$30.41
$1.09
$1.17
$1.25
$1.33