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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Monster Beverage Corporation (XNAS:MNST) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MNST
Name:
MONSTER BEVERAGE CORPORATION (XNAS:MNST)
Sector:
- 30281.00K
Industry:
Beverages�Non-Alcoholic
CEO:
Mr. Rodney Sacks
Total Employees:
4,092
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 3783.08% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MONSTER BEVERAGE CORPORATION(MNST) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BEVERAGES�NON-ALCOHOLIC INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
88.39
One Month Price Target:
$88.86
Six Month Price Target :
$91.2
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$94.01
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$88.17
Price Upper limit ($) :
$88.73
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$85.07
This week:
$80.97
This month :
$73.54
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
46.68B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
526.89M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
8.71%
-7.93%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$103.78
$96.65
$73.00
$80.13
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$94.33
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$92.81
$82.43
$83.97
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MNST
Sharpe Ratio:
3.17%
Comparison:
MNST, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -21.35% lower than the industry
& ratio is 39.15% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MNST
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.34%
Monthly returns:
1.36%
Yearly returns:
36.41%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -55.24% below industry average
Classification:
MNST, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.95
Statistical test of Returns:
MNST has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.86%
Weekly Volatility:
4.16%
Monthly Volatility:
8.33%
Yearly Volatility:
28.84%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.45%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -75.71% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.76%
Weekly VaR:
-8.40%
Monthly VaR:
-16.80%
How Much Can the price of
MNST
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-14%
Worst case (decline):
-58.18%
This translates to price declining to:
$75.95
This translates to price declining to:
$36.96
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MNST is a 18.55% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 1.56% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -29.12% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MNST
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.95
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.81
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.145
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.825
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.73
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.619
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.69
Beta is 37.19% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.913
Beta is 3.72% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
26.84%
Sustainable growth rate is 66.02% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.067
Alpha is -75.34% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 424% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MNST
Equity cost of capital:
0.096
Equity cost of capital is 2.47% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.40%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$11.04
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
6.78
Annual revenue growth rate is -23.13% below industry average
EPS:
$2.53
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
8.00%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -59.46% lower than the Beverages�Non-Alcoholic industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.79
-
-
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$3.49
Valuation Analysis Today of
MNST
P/E Ratio:
38.61
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
19.95
P/E ratio is 93.56% higher than main peers & is -68.39% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $309.04
MNST is -71.40% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
8.01
Price to sales ratio is 25.90% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
6.78
Price to free cash flow: 49.50
Price to free cash flow ratio is -63.35% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
46.10%
Net income growth rate is -135.13% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
19.29%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-14.78%
Debt to assets ratio:
16.17%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-12.39%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -69.14% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
251.85
Interest coverage ratio is -3708.36% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.747
Statistical significance of correlation:
MNST has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.541
Stock price is 38.18% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.541
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.004
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.005
Kurtosis
3.891
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.184
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MNST
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
218%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
30.65%
Operating profit margin is 112.30% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
218%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.80%
Effective tax rate is 21.81% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
19.75%
Return on equity (ROE) is -36.60% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
16.57%
Return on assets (ROA) is 46.43% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
4.54
Current ratio is 120.84% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
20.4
Cash conversion cycle is -77.48% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.20%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.4M
Each employee generates 63% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
449.3K
Each employee generates 161% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
331.5K
Each employee generates 182% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 7.4K
Each employee generates -133% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
841.6K
Each employee generates -133% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
MNST
THE KRAFT HEINZ COMPANY (XNAS:KHC)
DOLLAR TREE, INC. (XNAS:DLTR)
CHS Inc. (XNAS:CHSCM)
CASEY'S GENERAL STORES, INC. (XNAS:CASY)
Innovator Lddrd Alloc PB (BATS:BUFF)
PILGRIM'S PRIDE CORPORATION (XNAS:PPC)
COCA-COLA CONSOLIDATED, INC. (XNAS:COKE)
HELEN OF TROY LIMITED (XNAS:HELE)
CHS Inc. (XNAS:CHSCN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�42%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
5.82B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.65B
3.17B
-
-
-
-
1.39B
1.39B
-
7.30M
50.98M
1.84B
1.78B
1.36B
1.78B
423.74M
1.36B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
14.60M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
16.33M
Change in Working Capital :
- 326960.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 134433.00K
Other Working Capital:
23.13M
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.48M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 351.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 21511.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 330356.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 441925.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.01B
1.72B
2.73B
1.04B
821.13M
150.32M
4.74B
407.39M
1.41B
1.23B
65.65M
225.22M
101.49M
3.44B
-
8.19B
438.26M
-
21.12M
42.54M
563.57M
1.04B
-
38.19M
276.43M
-
1.32B
3.20M
8.10B
- 72145.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
4.03B
6.87B
8.19B
1.78B
-
- 1014786.0K
504.81M
- 14646.00K
- 303630.00K
-
4.51M
- 12187.00K
-
3.45M
- 4223.00K
- 3472.00K
- 311676.00K
1.01B
1.33B
- 351.00K
- 29930.00K
- 30281.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MNST
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$98.76
$105.04
$111.72
$118.83
$126.39