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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Monro, Inc. (XNAS:MNRO) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MNRO
Name:
MONRO, INC. (XNAS:MNRO)
Sector:
57.52M
Industry:
Auto Parts
CEO:
Mr. Brett Ponton
Total Employees:
8,750
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 529.35% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MONRO, INC.(MNRO) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND AUTO PARTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
46.16
One Month Price Target:
$46.43
Six Month Price Target :
$47.8
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$49.45
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$45.92
Price Upper limit ($) :
$46.37
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$43.45
This week:
$40.1
This month :
$34.04
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.46B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
32.20M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.22%
-13.12%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$58.75
$53.06
$33.57
$39.26
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$51.21
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$50.00
$41.09
$42.32
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MNRO
Sharpe Ratio:
-1.55%
Comparison:
MNRO, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -258.02% lower than the industry
& is -167.89% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MNRO
Daily returns:
-0.04%
Weekly returns:
-0.18%
Monthly returns:
-0.70%
Yearly returns:
9.58%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -187.99% below industry average
Classification:
MNRO, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.68
Statistical test of Returns:
MNRO has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.84%
Weekly Volatility:
6.35%
Monthly Volatility:
12.70%
Yearly Volatility:
44.01%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.35%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -87.61% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.87%
Weekly VaR:
-13.12%
Monthly VaR:
-26.25%
How Much Can the price of
MNRO
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
-90.93%
This translates to price declining to:
$35.26
This translates to price declining to:
$4.19
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MNRO is a 85.27% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 58.72% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 0.68% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MNRO
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.06
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.689
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.975
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.585
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.502
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.769
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.362
Beta is -22.13% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.212
Beta is -12.51% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
4.16%
Sustainable growth rate is -78.47% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.188
Alpha is 903.99% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1199% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MNRO
Equity cost of capital:
0.104
Equity cost of capital is -9.07% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.74%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.90%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.29%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.29%
WACC is -23.56% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$42.22
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.96
Annual revenue growth rate is -108.42% below industry average
EPS:
$1.80
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-7.73%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -212.14% lower than the Auto Parts industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.25
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 21.83%
Equity growth rate per share is -248.25% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$24.08
EBITDA per share
$5.04
Valuation Analysis Today of
MNRO
P/E Ratio:
25.68
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
40.16
P/E ratio is -36.06% lower than main peers & is 20.27% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $38.43
MNRO is 20.10% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $29.37
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $13.75
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.09
Price to sales ratio is -52.25% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.96
Price to free cash flow: 10.85
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-47.37%
Net income growth rate is -227.58% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 13.24%
Dividend yeild: 2.30%
Previous Dividend: $0.28
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.28
Previous Dividend: $1.06
Expected next dividend best case: $0.30
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.26
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.24
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.51%
Expected next dividend payment date: 19/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/05/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 20/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-03--$0.28
2021-12-06--$0.26
2021-06-04--$0.24
2022-03-08--$0.26
2021-08-20--$0.26
2021-03-09--$0.22
Dividend growth rate is -130.66% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
102.20%
Net debt to equity ratio:
109.56%
Debt to assets ratio:
40.98%
Net debt to assets ratio:
43.93%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -21.84% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.59
Interest coverage ratio is -84.82% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-10.51%
Annual debt growth is -139% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 9.21%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.413
Statistical significance of correlation:
MNRO has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.534
Stock price is -22.65% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.534
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.002
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.003
Kurtosis
3.696
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.144
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MNRO
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
142%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
7.45%
Operating profit margin is -21.36% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
142%
Effective Tax Rate:
20.34%
Effective tax rate is -15.15% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
8.12%
Return on equity (ROE) is -62.13% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.25%
Return on assets (ROA) is -64.48% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
0.8
Current ratio is -60.12% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-28.5
Cash conversion cycle is -147.79% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.23%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
155.4K
Each employee generates -52% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
18.6K
Each employee generates -70% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
7.0K
Each employee generates -79% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
6.6K
Each employee generates -1% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
186.9K
Each employee generates -1% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
MNRO
Niu Technologies (XNAS:NIU)
THE ODP CORPORATION (XNAS:ODP)
GENTHERM INCORPORATED (XNAS:THRM)
1-800-FLOWERS.COM, INC. (XNAS:FLWS)
DREAM FINDERS HOMES, INC. (XNAS:DFH)
BAOZUN INC. (XNAS:BZUN)
WW International, Inc. (XNAS:WW)
DAVE & BUSTER'S ENTERTAINMENT, INC. (XNAS:PLAY)
THE REALREAL, INC. (XNAS:REAL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�33%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/26/22
Revenue:
1.36B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
877.49M
481.84M
-
-
380.54M
-
-
380.54M
-
24.63M
60.45M
162.37M
101.30M
61.57M
77.29M
15.72M
61.57M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
20.28M
Differed Income Tax :
2.93M
Stock Based Compensation :
755.00K
Change in Working Capital :
23.24M
Accounts Receivables:
- 98.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 64194.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 168.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
62.71M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 62059.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
6/26/21
2022
Q1
16.88M
-
16.88M
18.51M
167.50M
53.18M
256.07M
826.73M
757.67M
27.23M
-
5.81M
18.26M
1.64B
-
1.89B
121.38M
72.74M
-
12.67M
113.48M
320.26M
775.28M
18.24M
812.92M
-
1.13B
399.00K
631.88M
- 4722.0K
131.01M
June 26, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
1.26B
758.59M
1.89B
-
848.02M
831.1M
-
- 4703.00K
- 66762.00K
- 78661.00K
-
-
- 8152.00K
77.78M
- 9034.00K
-
- 13082.00K
16.88M
29.96M
62.71M
- 5199.00K
57.52M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MNRO
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$58.25
$62.40
$66.85
$71.61
$76.71