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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Moneygram International, Inc. (XNAS:MGI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MGI
Name:
MONEYGRAM INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNAS:MGI)
Sector:
- 40300.00K
Industry:
Credit Services
CEO:
Mr. W. Alexander Holmes
Total Employees:
3,072
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -16.45% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MONEYGRAM INTERNATIONAL, INC.(MGI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND CREDIT SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
10.39
One Month Price Target:
$10.46
Six Month Price Target :
$10.8
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$11.21
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$10.34
Price Upper limit ($) :
$10.52
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$9.33
This week:
$8.02
This month :
$5.66
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.00B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
96.35M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
29.73%
-23.46%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$15.29
$12.98
$5.49
$7.80
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$12.23
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$11.73
$8.55
$9.05
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MGI
Sharpe Ratio:
6.69%
Comparison:
MGI, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 259.78% higher than the industry
& ratio is 193.44% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MGI
Daily returns:
0.35%
Weekly returns:
1.76%
Monthly returns:
7.04%
Yearly returns:
19.06%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 343.04% above industry average
Classification:
MGI, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.15
Statistical test of Returns:
MGI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.13%
Weekly Volatility:
11.47%
Monthly Volatility:
22.94%
Yearly Volatility:
79.46%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.48%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -90.56% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.18%
Weekly VaR:
-22.77%
Monthly VaR:
-45.54%
How Much Can the price of
MGI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-36%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$6.63
This translates to price declining to:
$1.56
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MGI is a 221.40% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 175.34% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 55.43% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MGI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.17
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.753
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.066
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-0.468
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.814
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.867
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.225
Beta is -4.22% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.332
Beta is -11.92% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
16.37%
Sustainable growth rate is -51.48% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.733
Alpha is 979.37% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 4664% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MGI
Equity cost of capital:
0.112
Equity cost of capital is -8.86% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-4.46%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.92%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.47%
Overall debt rating:
Lowest medium B grade (second lowest)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.47%
WACC is 24.36% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$13.30
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-5.43
Annual revenue growth rate is -122.20% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.19
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-20.94%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -183.57% lower than the Credit Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$8.71
EBITDA per share
$0.93
Valuation Analysis Today of
MGI
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
39.68
-
-
MGI is -550.54% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.78
Price to sales ratio is -84.97% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-5.43
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is 863.95% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
13.20%
Net income growth rate is -18.28% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-455.51%
Net debt to equity ratio:
516.77%
Debt to assets ratio:
18.95%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-21.50%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -75.69% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
1.54
Interest coverage ratio is -84.34% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-8.06%
Annual debt growth is -116% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.12%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.3
Statistical significance of correlation:
MGI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.561
Stock price is -46.43% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.561
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.013
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.039
Kurtosis
5.523
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.725
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MGI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
118%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
6.49%
Operating profit margin is -77.67% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
118%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.01%
Effective tax rate is 6.26% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.44%
Return on equity (ROE) is -77.73% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-0.39%
Return on assets (ROA) is -106.48% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
30.48
Current ratio is 427.58% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
135.1
Cash conversion cycle is 1.82% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 10.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-21.26%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
417.0K
Each employee generates -43% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
29.1K
Each employee generates -93% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 5.7K
Each employee generates -102% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 13.1K
Each employee generates -122% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
240.5K
Each employee generates -122% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
MGI
PEAPACK-GLADSTONE FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:PGC)
AGBA ACQ UNT (XNAS:AGBAU)
AGC
COASTAL FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:CCB)
ScION Tech Growth I (XNAS:SCOA)
UP FINTECH HOLDING LIMITED (XNAS:TIGR)
Trustpilot Group PLC (XLON:TRST)
Gores Holdings VII Inc (XNAS:GSEV)
-
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.28B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
902.30M
378.80M
-
241.70M
241.70M
-
53.90M
295.60M
-
58.10M
53.90M
89.40M
83.20M
- 17400.00K
- 22600.00K
- 5200.00K
- 17400.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
12.20M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
3.70M
Change in Working Capital :
- 50800.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 200.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 30000.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 65000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.79B
995.60M
2.79B
903.60M
-
-
3.69B
181.10M
442.20M
-
-
-
115.40M
738.70M
-
4.43B
121.10M
-
-
-
-
121.10M
839.50M
3.65B
4.49B
-
4.61B
1.00M
- 1508300.00K
- 64100.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.20B
- 184300.00K
4.43B
-
839.50M
- 952400.0K
60.80M
- 10300.00K
- 14500.00K
- 1000.00K
-
-
-
- 213500.00K
- 214500.00K
-
- 259000.00K
1.79B
2.05B
- 30000.00K
- 10300.00K
- 40300.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MGI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$9.02
$9.73
$10.50
$11.32
$12.22