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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (XNAS:MCRI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MCRI
Name:
MONARCH CASINO & RESORT, INC. (XNAS:MCRI)
Sector:
20.62M
Industry:
Resorts & Casinos
CEO:
Mr. John Farahi
Total Employees:
2,650
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 14.38% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MONARCH CASINO & RESORT, INC.(MCRI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND RESORTS & CASINOS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
59.99
One Month Price Target:
$60.54
Six Month Price Target :
$63.31
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$66.63
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$59.67
Price Upper limit ($) :
$60.45
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$55.35
This week:
$49.61
This month :
$39.22
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.12B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
18.89M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
22.37%
-27.8%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$81.53
$71.58
$38.45
$48.40
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$68.35
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$66.22
$51.61
$53.76
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MCRI
Sharpe Ratio:
2.77%
Comparison:
MCRI, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -0.69% lower than the industry
& ratio is 21.73% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MCRI
Daily returns:
0.11%
Weekly returns:
0.57%
Monthly returns:
2.30%
Yearly returns:
33.63%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -17.93% below industry average
Classification:
MCRI, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.44
Statistical test of Returns:
MCRI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.83%
Weekly Volatility:
8.55%
Monthly Volatility:
17.11%
Yearly Volatility:
59.26%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.40%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -89.60% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.74%
Weekly VaR:
-17.31%
Monthly VaR:
-34.62%
How Much Can the price of
MCRI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-29%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$42.42
This translates to price declining to:
$9.00
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MCRI is a 144.35% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 109.34% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -14.16% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MCRI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.65
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.848
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.2
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.463
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.861
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.21
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.964
Beta is -16.11% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
2.078
Beta is -20.71% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
16.57%
Sustainable growth rate is -44.72% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.132
Alpha is -18.98% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 838% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MCRI
Equity cost of capital:
0.144
Equity cost of capital is -16.96% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
12.82%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.82%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.02%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.02%
WACC is 45.26% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$22.70
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.44
Annual revenue growth rate is 204.03% above the industry average
EPS:
$4.02
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
25.87%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 56.95% higher than the Resorts & Casinos industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.48
-
-
Debt per share
$3.81
EBITDA per share
$7.38
Valuation Analysis Today of
MCRI
P/E Ratio:
14.69
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
103.11
P/E ratio is -85.75% lower than main peers & is -64.94% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $168.42
MCRI is -64.38% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.64
Price to sales ratio is 5.59% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.44
Price to free cash flow: 13.39
Price to free cash flow ratio is -10.60% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
92.30%
Net income growth rate is -240.21% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
15.45%
Net debt to equity ratio:
12.77%
Debt to assets ratio:
10.40%
Net debt to assets ratio:
8.60%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -85.77% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
39.4
Interest coverage ratio is 646.88% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-43.01%
Annual debt growth is -102% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 15.32%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.482
Statistical significance of correlation:
MCRI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.569
Stock price is -15.29% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.569
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.015
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.033
Kurtosis
11.346
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.655
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MCRI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
218%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
23.31%
Operating profit margin is 218.01% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
218%
Effective Tax Rate:
18.62%
Effective tax rate is -54.93% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
16.86%
Return on equity (ROE) is -19.91% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
11.35%
Return on assets (ROA) is 194.88% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
0.59
Current ratio is -73.48% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-31.7
Cash conversion cycle is -176.66% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.54%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
161.8K
Each employee generates -38% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
52.6K
Each employee generates -26% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
29.6K
Each employee generates 36% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
7.8K
Each employee generates -22% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
231.0K
Each employee generates -22% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
MCRI
BLINK CHARGING CO. (XNAS:BLNK)
BJ'S RESTAURANTS, INC. (XNAS:BJRI)
HIBBETT, INC. (XNAS:HIBB)
GREEN BRICK PARTNERS, INC. (XNYS:GRBK)
JOHNSON OUTDOORS INC. (XNAS:JOUT)
FUNKO, INC. (XNAS:FNKO)
Franchise Group, Inc. (XNAS:FRG)
Playa Hotels & Resorts NV (XNAS:PLYA)
WORKHORSE GROUP INC. (XNAS:WKHS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�8%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
428.74M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
195.19M
233.55M
-
-
88.69M
-
44.92M
133.61M
-
3.54M
39.43M
139.37M
99.94M
78.45M
96.41M
17.95M
78.45M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
10.52M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
1.21M
Change in Working Capital :
5.23M
Accounts Receivables:
1.36M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
365.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
35.44M
Investments in PP&E:
- 14814.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
33.15M
-
33.15M
31.85M
6.97M
7.03M
79.00M
586.54M
25.11M
446.00K
-
-
-
612.10M
-
691.10M
19.41M
20.67M
-
-
94.34M
134.41M
71.88M
-
91.50M
-
225.92M
191.00K
428.86M
-
36.14M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
328.79M
465.19M
691.10M
-
92.55M
59.4M
-
- 7239.00K
- 22053.00K
- 13000.00K
-
- 6500.00K
-
5.74M
- 13762.00K
-
- 377.00K
33.15M
33.53M
35.44M
- 14814.00K
20.62M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MCRI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$66.96
$211.78
$235.22
$261.26
$290.19