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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Momentive Global Inc. (XNAS:MNTV) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MNTV
Name:
MOMENTIVE GLOBAL INC. (XNAS:MNTV)
Sector:
- 7906.00K
Industry:
Software�Application
CEO:
Total Employees:
1,600
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -107.62% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MOMENTIVE GLOBAL INC.(MNTV) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�APPLICATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
6.96
One Month Price Target:
$7.01
Six Month Price Target :
$7.28
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$7.6
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$6.92
Price Upper limit ($) :
$6.99
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$6.5
This week:
$5.94
This month :
$4.93
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.00B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
147.62M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.21%
-17.92%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$9.08
$8.13
$4.84
$5.79
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$7.82
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$7.62
$6.10
$6.30
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MNTV
Sharpe Ratio:
-2.99%
Comparison:
MNTV, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -410.32% lower than the industry
& is -231.23% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MNTV
Daily returns:
-0.09%
Weekly returns:
-0.43%
Monthly returns:
-1.70%
Yearly returns:
9.94%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -305.60% below industry average
Classification:
MNTV, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.43
Statistical test of Returns:
MNTV has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.14%
Weekly Volatility:
7.03%
Monthly Volatility:
14.05%
Yearly Volatility:
48.67%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.35%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -57.18% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.54%
Weekly VaR:
-14.62%
Monthly VaR:
-29.24%
How Much Can the price of
MNTV
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$5.09
This translates to price declining to:
$1.04
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MNTV is a 106.36% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 76.79% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -12.59% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MNTV
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.37
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.253
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.772
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.757
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.665
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.667
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
-
-
Average Industry Beta:
1.335
Beta is 2.55% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.330
Alpha is 1296.12% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -2098% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MNTV
Equity cost of capital:
0.125
Equity cost of capital is 1.89% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.93%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.53%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.79%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.79%
WACC is 6.31% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.11
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.32
Annual revenue growth rate is -71.37% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.88
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
14.47%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -47.10% lower than the Software�Application industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.17
-
-
Debt per share
$1.69
EBITDA per share
-$0.54
Valuation Analysis Today of
MNTV
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
-
-
-
MNTV is -104.45% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.24
Price to sales ratio is -80.46% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.32
Price to free cash flow: 41.68
Price to free cash flow ratio is -50.85% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-38.56%
Net income growth rate is -115.79% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
80.54%
Net debt to equity ratio:
7.23%
Debt to assets ratio:
28.54%
Net debt to assets ratio:
2.56%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -47.98% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-8.68
Interest coverage ratio is -116.35% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
22.42%
Annual debt growth is -98% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 9.31%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.371
Statistical significance of correlation:
MNTV has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.503
Stock price is -26.16% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.503
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.05
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.091
Kurtosis
5.237
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.083
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MNTV
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
323%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-26.35%
Operating profit margin is 37.54% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
323%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.37%
Effective tax rate is -101.39% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-42.39%
Return on equity (ROE) is 224.07% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-15.02%
Return on assets (ROA) is 291.06% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
0.98
Current ratio is -67.24% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-3.7
Cash conversion cycle is -103.91% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-20.04%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
286.5K
Each employee generates -17% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 49.9K
Each employee generates -564% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 81.9K
Each employee generates 369% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 4.9K
Each employee generates -36% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
360.0K
Each employee generates -36% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 23.25%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 1420.90% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
MNTV
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
458.47M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
88.55M
369.92M
143.00M
111.26M
342.87M
231.61M
-
485.87M
436.00K
9.19M
41.52M
- 79794.00K
- 120826.00K
- 130979.00K
- 130499.00K
480.00K
- 130979.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
9.35M
Differed Income Tax :
217.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
26.25M
Change in Working Capital :
- 7921.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 1047.00K
Other Working Capital:
7.39M
Other Non-Cash Items:
4.57M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 4900.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 441.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
238.04M
-
238.04M
32.86M
-
25.13M
296.03M
54.35M
462.42M
36.53M
-
-
22.74M
576.04M
-
872.07M
11.91M
11.50M
-
215.48M
62.78M
301.67M
248.89M
5.84M
261.38M
-
563.05M
2.00K
- 654923.00K
- 533.0K
964.47M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
574.42M
309.02M
872.07M
-
260.39M
22.4M
-
- 2565.00K
- 3006.00K
- 25550.00K
-
- 36376.00K
-
2.27M
- 59653.00K
393.00K
- 67166.00K
238.96M
306.12M
- 4900.00K
- 3006.00K
- 7906.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MNTV
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$7.60
$8.30
$9.06
$9.90
$10.81