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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Molson Coors Beverage Company (XNYS:TAP) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TAP
Name:
MOLSON COORS BEVERAGE COMPANY (XNYS:TAP)
Sector:
- 119300.00K
Industry:
Beverages�Brewers
CEO:
Mr. Gavin Hattersley
Total Employees:
16,300
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 0.00% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MOLSON COORS BEVERAGE COMPANY(TAP) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BEVERAGES�BREWERS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
51.7
One Month Price Target:
$51.95
Six Month Price Target :
$53.21
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$54.73
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$51.51
Price Upper limit ($) :
$51.92
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$49.25
This week:
$46.23
This month :
$40.76
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
11.24B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
216.73M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
10.83%
-11.18%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$63.05
$57.86
$40.35
$45.54
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$56.17
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$55.06
$47.22
$48.34
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TAP
Sharpe Ratio:
0.85%
Comparison:
TAP, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 8.37% higher than the industry
& is -62.92% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TAP
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.14%
Monthly returns:
0.57%
Yearly returns:
7.20%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -5.22% below industry average
Classification:
TAP, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.98
Statistical test of Returns:
TAP has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.32%
Weekly Volatility:
5.18%
Monthly Volatility:
10.36%
Yearly Volatility:
35.90%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.03%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -55.41% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.73%
Weekly VaR:
-10.58%
Monthly VaR:
-21.15%
How Much Can the price of
TAP
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-18%
Worst case (decline):
-73.28%
This translates to price declining to:
$42.20
This translates to price declining to:
$13.81
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TAP is a 49.31% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 27.91% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -15.68% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TAP
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.87
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.676
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.956
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.621
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.445
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.663
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.913
Beta is -4.46% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.923
Beta is -5.46% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.023
Alpha is 1.34% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -146% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TAP
Equity cost of capital:
0.091
Equity cost of capital is -3.65% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.49%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.71%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.35%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.35%
WACC is -13.54% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$61.08
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.81
Annual revenue growth rate is -110.53% below industry average
EPS:
$4.93
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
60.38%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 1043.93% higher than the Beverages�Brewers industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.53
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -58.43%
Equity growth rate per share is 100.00% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$30.60
EBITDA per share
$10.05
Valuation Analysis Today of
TAP
P/E Ratio:
15.35
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
27.88
P/E ratio is -44.93% lower than main peers & is -95.14% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $1,558.63
TAP is -96.68% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $25.29
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $9.15
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.85
Price to sales ratio is -46.07% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.81
Price to free cash flow: 9.35
FALSE
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-10.26%
Net income growth rate is -78.46% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 7.68%
Dividend yeild: 2.79%
Previous Dividend: $0.38
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.38
Previous Dividend: $1.44
Expected next dividend best case: $0.53
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.23
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.43
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -5.72%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/01/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/03/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-02--$0.38
2021-12-02--$0.34
2020-03-06--$0.57
2022-03-04--$0.38
2021-08-27--$0.34
2019-11-29--$0.57
Dividend growth rate is -163.71% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
49.01%
Net debt to equity ratio:
51.40%
Debt to assets ratio:
23.92%
Net debt to assets ratio:
25.09%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -40.75% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
17.41
Interest coverage ratio is -123.95% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-12.90%
Annual debt growth is 19% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.29%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.521
Statistical significance of correlation:
TAP has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.469
Stock price is 11.05% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.469
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.038
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.051
Kurtosis
3.444
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
-0.226
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TAP
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
192%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
11.34%
Operating profit margin is 21049.24% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
192%
Effective Tax Rate:
17.30%
Effective tax rate is -9.91% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
7.93%
Return on equity (ROE) is 155.54% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.87%
Return on assets (ROA) is 49.79% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
0.81
Current ratio is -29.26% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
35.7
Cash conversion cycle is 186.81% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.79%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
812.2K
Each employee generates 3% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
133.6K
Each employee generates 98% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
65.8K
Each employee generates 193% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 7.3K
Each employee generates -55% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.5M
Each employee generates -55% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
TAP
TAP-A
DARLING INGREDIENTS INC. (XNYS:DAR)
Coca-Cola Femsa SAB de CV (XNYS:KOF)
BJ'S WHOLESALE CLUB HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:BJ)
BUNGE LIMITED (XNYS:BG)
COTY INC. (XNYS:COTY)
CAMPBELL SOUP COMPANY (XNYS:CPB)
US FOODS HOLDING CORP. (XNYS:USFD)
ALBERTSONS COMPANIES, INC. (XNYS:ACI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�17%
Hold�17%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
13.24B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
6.35B
6.89B
-
1.34B
2.69B
-
-
2.69B
2.00M
125.10M
757.50M
2.18B
1.50B
1.07B
1.29B
222.60M
1.07B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
173.70M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
8.50M
Change in Working Capital :
- 438800.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 14200.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 119300.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
358.70M
-
358.70M
761.20M
935.80M
814.90M
2.87B
-
6.16B
13.22B
-
-
5.47B
24.85B
-
27.72B
-
681.90M
-
-
2.87B
3.56B
6.63B
987.60M
10.40B
-
13.95B
2.10M
7.47B
- 949600.0K
7.01B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
9.03B
13.53B
27.48B
-
7.31B
7.0B
-
- 226200.00K
- 226200.00K
- 155200.00K
-
- 14100.00K
- 82400.00K
324.20M
72.50M
- 5700.00K
- 278700.00K
358.70M
637.40M
- 119300.00K
-
- 119300.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TAP
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$55.00
$126.68
$134.10
$141.96
$150.28