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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Molina Healthcare, Inc. (XNYS:MOH) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MOH
Name:
MOLINA HEALTHCARE, INC. (XNYS:MOH)
Sector:
340.00M
Industry:
Healthcare Plans
CEO:
Mr. Joseph Zubretsky
Total Employees:
14,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -64.23% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MOLINA HEALTHCARE, INC.(MOH) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND HEALTHCARE PLANS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
338.22
One Month Price Target:
$339.79
Six Month Price Target :
$347.63
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$357.04
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$337.34
Price Upper limit ($) :
$340.28
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$321.04
This week:
$299.79
This month :
$261.37
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
19.68B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
58.10M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.27%
-16.85%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$417.81
$380.29
$258.63
$296.15
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$368.08
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$360.07
$308.25
$316.37
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MOH
Sharpe Ratio:
6.46%
Comparison:
MOH, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 63.84% higher than the industry
& ratio is 183.50% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MOH
Daily returns:
0.17%
Weekly returns:
0.87%
Monthly returns:
3.48%
Yearly returns:
24.40%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 71.34% above industry average
Classification:
MOH, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.86
Statistical test of Returns:
MOH has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.56%
Weekly Volatility:
5.72%
Monthly Volatility:
11.44%
Yearly Volatility:
39.64%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.63%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -36.34% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.08%
Weekly VaR:
-11.36%
Monthly VaR:
-22.72%
How Much Can the price of
MOH
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-18%
Worst case (decline):
-78.71%
This translates to price declining to:
$277.04
This translates to price declining to:
$72.00
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MOH is a 60.37% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 37.39% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 9.96% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MOH
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.83
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.598
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.845
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.503
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.67
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.775
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.016
Beta is -18.45% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.719
Beta is 15.13% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
27.23%
Sustainable growth rate is 86.20% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.330
Alpha is 102.07% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2100% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MOH
Equity cost of capital:
0.088
Equity cost of capital is 9.23% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.36%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.94%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.90%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.90%
WACC is 17.05% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$499.47
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
7.03
Annual revenue growth rate is -18.84% below industry average
EPS:
$11.76
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-1.82%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -117.59% lower than the Healthcare Plans industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$31.18
-
-
Debt per share
$41.15
EBITDA per share
$20.14
Valuation Analysis Today of
MOH
P/E Ratio:
26.35
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
21.95
P/E ratio is 20.05% higher than main peers & is 19.96% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $258.33
MOH is 30.92% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.68
Price to sales ratio is -12.87% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
7.03
Price to free cash flow: 10.85
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-0.36%
Net income growth rate is -99.55% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
85.58%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-86.36%
Debt to assets ratio:
19.34%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-19.52%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -70.03% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
9.92
Interest coverage ratio is 235.45% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.70%
Annual debt growth is -100% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.55
Statistical significance of correlation:
MOH has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.624
Stock price is -11.93% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.624
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.015
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.022
Kurtosis
7.151
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.471
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MOH
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
47%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
3.64%
Operating profit margin is -222.87% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
47%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.62%
Effective tax rate is 47.90% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
24.66%
Return on equity (ROE) is -388.11% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.57%
Return on assets (ROA) is -244.49% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
1.44
Current ratio is -12.96% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
28.6
Cash conversion cycle is -89.20% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
4.93%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
2.1M
Each employee generates 37% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
83.6K
Each employee generates 7% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
49.2K
Each employee generates 18% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
24.3K
Each employee generates 77% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
158.1K
Each employee generates 77% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
MOH
CHARLES RIVER LABORATORIES INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNYS:CRL)
SMITH & NEPHEW PLC (XNYS:SNN)
CARDINAL HEALTH, INC. (XNYS:CAH)
TELEFLEX INCORPORATED (XNYS:TFX)
QUEST DIAGNOSTICS INCORPORATED (XNYS:DGX)
Catalent, Inc. (XNYS:CTLT)
BIO-RAD LABORATORIES, INC. (XNYS:BIO)
BIO-B
THE COOPER COMPANIES, INC. (XNYS:COO)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�33%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
29.02B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
25.60B
3.42B
-
2.17B
2.17B
-
195.00M
2.36B
-
118.00M
138.00M
1.17B
1.06B
689.00M
914.00M
225.00M
689.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
40.00M
Differed Income Tax :
16.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
34.00M
Change in Working Capital :
23.00M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 285000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 8000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
363.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 23000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 403000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
4.80B
2.99B
7.79B
2.16B
-
198.00M
10.15B
393.00M
-
-
-
114.00M
402.00M
2.21B
-
12.36B
809.00M
-
-
18.00M
6.21B
7.04B
2.39B
134.00M
2.53B
-
9.57B
-
2.66B
- 81000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
27.96B
2.79B
12.36B
-
2.39B
- 2413000.0K
513.00M
- 13000.00K
74.00M
-
-
- 52000.00K
-
- 25000.00K
- 77000.00K
-
360.00M
4.87B
4.51B
363.00M
- 23000.00K
340.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MOH
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$362.57
$382.75
$404.05
$426.54
$450.28