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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Moderna, Inc. (XNAS:MRNA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MRNA
Name:
MODERNA, INC. (XNAS:MRNA)
Sector:
2.63B
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Mr. Stephane Bancel
Total Employees:
2,700
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 592.83% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MODERNA, INC.(MRNA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
138.57
One Month Price Target:
$139.88
Six Month Price Target :
$146.42
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$154.27
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$137.89
Price Upper limit ($) :
$140.47
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$123.6
This week:
$105.1
This month :
$71.62
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
50.89B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
391.20M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
27.81%
-17.97%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$207.87
$174.99
$69.27
$102.15
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$164.28
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$157.26
$112.77
$119.88
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MRNA
Sharpe Ratio:
7.86%
Comparison:
MRNA, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 304.25% higher than the industry
& ratio is 244.86% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MRNA
Daily returns:
0.44%
Weekly returns:
2.20%
Monthly returns:
8.78%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 317.84% above industry average
Classification:
MRNA, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.12
Statistical test of Returns:
MRNA has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.47%
Weekly Volatility:
12.24%
Monthly Volatility:
24.48%
Yearly Volatility:
84.81%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.34%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -38.99% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.80%
Weekly VaR:
-24.16%
Monthly VaR:
-48.31%
How Much Can the price of
MRNA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-38%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$86.37
This translates to price declining to:
$20.79
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MRNA is a 241.00% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 192.14% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 15.14% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MRNA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.69
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.929
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.313
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.622
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.614
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
-0.044
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.788
Beta is 113.79% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is 46.35% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
121.61%
Sustainable growth rate is 131.88% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.907
Alpha is 539.43% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 5774% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MRNA
Equity cost of capital:
0.147
Equity cost of capital is 33.13% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
14.14%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.22%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.75%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.75%
WACC is 57.15% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$57.77
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.17
Annual revenue growth rate is 1830.44% above the industry average
EPS:
$34.01
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$30.88
-
-
Debt per share
$1.89
EBITDA per share
$42.36
Valuation Analysis Today of
MRNA
P/E Ratio:
4.22
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
22.84
P/E ratio is -81.50% lower than main peers & is -95.29% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $3,051.64
MRNA is -95.46% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.4
Price to sales ratio is -94.08% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.17
Price to free cash flow: 4.49
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-2687.59%
Net income growth rate is -3907.72% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
4.34%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-24.02%
Debt to assets ratio:
2.68%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-14.85%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -93.63% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
789.1
Interest coverage ratio is -766.79% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
370.12%
Annual debt growth is 174% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 4.02%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.131
Statistical significance of correlation:
MRNA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is -61.57% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.084
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.266
Kurtosis
2.698
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
0.598
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MRNA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
338%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
71.93%
Operating profit margin is -116.78% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
338%
Effective Tax Rate:
9.94%
Effective tax rate is 74.30% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
85.73%
Return on equity (ROE) is -249.52% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
53.02%
Return on assets (ROA) is -359.86% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
1.77
Current ratio is -78.14% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
70.2
Cash conversion cycle is -86.83% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.30%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
8.4M
Each employee generates 419% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
6.1M
Each employee generates 1493% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
5.4M
Each employee generates 4137% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
974.4K
Each employee generates 562% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
4.2M
Each employee generates 562% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 45.29%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -1362.45% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
MRNA
ILLUMINA, INC. (XNAS:ILMN)
VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED (XNAS:VRTX)
REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:REGN)
ALIGN TECHNOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:ALGN)
WALGREENS BOOTS ALLIANCE, INC. (XNAS:WBA)
IDEXX LABORATORIES, INC. (XNAS:IDXX)
BioNTech SE (XNAS:BNTX)
BIOGEN INC. (XNAS:BIIB)
ALXN
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
22.60B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.44B
19.16B
2.14B
-
758.00M
-
-
2.90B
29.00M
21.00M
296.00M
16.57B
16.26B
14.64B
16.25B
1.62B
14.64B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
79.00M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
44.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 1035000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
1.00M
Other Working Capital:
- 951000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
18.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
2.76B
Investments in PP&E:
- 132000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 5572000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
5.05B
5.07B
10.12B
3.36B
1.94B
929.00M
16.35B
1.47B
-
-
9.17B
521.00M
94.00M
11.26B
-
27.61B
199.00M
206.00M
1.59B
5.60B
3.23B
9.24B
741.00M
91.00M
1.30B
-
10.53B
-
13.62B
- 184000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
6.34B
17.08B
27.61B
14.24B
947.00M
- 4101000.0K
1.82B
- 35000.00K
- 3921000.00K
- 31000.00K
-
- 623000.00K
-
12.00M
- 642000.00K
-
- 1800000.00K
5.06B
6.86B
2.76B
- 132000.00K
2.63B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MRNA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$155.04
$172.60
$192.15
$213.92
$238.15