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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Mks Instruments, Inc. (XNAS:MKSI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MKSI
Name:
MKS INSTRUMENTS, INC. (XNAS:MKSI)
Sector:
22.00M
Industry:
Scientific & Technical Instruments
CEO:
Dr. John Lee
Total Employees:
6,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 1082.58% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MKS INSTRUMENTS, INC.(MKSI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SCIENTIFIC & TECHNICAL INSTRUMENTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
97.13
One Month Price Target:
$97.98
Six Month Price Target :
$102.25
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$107.37
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$96.63
Price Upper limit ($) :
$97.7
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$90.74
This week:
$82.85
This month :
$68.57
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
6.31B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
66.49M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.34%
-22.12%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$126.77
$113.22
$67.49
$81.04
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$108.81
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$105.92
$85.41
$88.34
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MKSI
Sharpe Ratio:
0.83%
Comparison:
MKSI, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -38.95% lower than the industry
& is -63.62% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MKSI
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.18%
Monthly returns:
0.71%
Yearly returns:
11.06%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -22.91% below industry average
Classification:
MKSI, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.9
Statistical test of Returns:
MKSI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.22%
Weekly Volatility:
7.20%
Monthly Volatility:
14.40%
Yearly Volatility:
49.87%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.17%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -63.73% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.58%
Weekly VaR:
-14.70%
Monthly VaR:
-29.40%
How Much Can the price of
MKSI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$72.27
This translates to price declining to:
$14.57
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MKSI is a 107.54% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 77.80% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 16.83% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MKSI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.57
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.109
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.568
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.232
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.369
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.009
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.367
Beta is 14.68% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.276
Beta is 22.92% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
19.24%
Sustainable growth rate is -11.76% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.054
Alpha is 550.29% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -341% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MKSI
Equity cost of capital:
0.139
Equity cost of capital is 16.85% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.91%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.44%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.92%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.92%
WACC is 16.80% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$45.08
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.13
Annual revenue growth rate is 144.99% above the industry average
EPS:
$10.27
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
56.76%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 900.07% higher than the Scientific & Technical Instruments industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$9.09
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 10.04%
Equity growth rate per share is 238.24% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$14.96
EBITDA per share
$12.36
Valuation Analysis Today of
MKSI
P/E Ratio:
9.75
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
57.29
P/E ratio is -82.99% lower than main peers & is -77.53% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $445.39
MKSI is -78.19% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $33.73
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $6.89
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.15
Price to sales ratio is -55.77% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.13
Price to free cash flow: 10.68
Price to free cash flow ratio is -56.62% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
37.58%
Net income growth rate is -238.05% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 2.10%
Dividend yeild: 0.91%
Previous Dividend: $0.22
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.22
Previous Dividend: $0.88
Expected next dividend best case: $0.23
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.21
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.21
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/08/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/10/2022
Previous dividend record date: 30/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/10/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-26--$0.22
2021-11-26--$0.22
2021-05-27--$0.22
2022-02-25--$0.22
2021-08-27--$0.22
2021-02-19--$0.20
Dividend growth rate is -113.29% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
32.87%
Net debt to equity ratio:
0.50%
Debt to assets ratio:
21.40%
Net debt to assets ratio:
0.32%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -54.75% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
32.86
Interest coverage ratio is 185.18% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-0.50%
Annual debt growth is -101% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.20%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.75
Statistical significance of correlation:
MKSI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.619
Stock price is 21.04% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.619
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.013
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.024
Kurtosis
5.153
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.22
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MKSI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
186%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
23.86%
Operating profit margin is 126.59% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
186%
Effective Tax Rate:
16.88%
Effective tax rate is -57.89% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
18.90%
Return on equity (ROE) is -1.75% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
12.31%
Return on assets (ROA) is 129.37% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
5.18
Current ratio is 119.70% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
48.7
Cash conversion cycle is -12.37% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 43.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.40%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
499.6K
Each employee generates 55% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
136.9K
Each employee generates 114% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
95.4K
Each employee generates 177% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
3.7K
Each employee generates -8% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
398.5K
Each employee generates -8% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 15.54%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 423.62% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
MKSI
Amdocs Limited (XNAS:DOX)
LATTICE SEMICONDUCTOR CORPORATION (XNAS:LSCC)
dLocal Ltd (XNAS:DLO)
FIVE9, INC. (XNAS:FIVN)
DROPBOX, INC. (XNAS:DBX)
FIRST SOLAR, INC. (XNAS:FSLR)
Nuvei Corp (XNAS:NVEI)
ASPEN TECHNOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:AZPN)
SYNAPTICS INCORPORATED (XNAS:SYNA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�8%
Hold�0%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.00B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.61B
1.39B
204.80M
-
381.20M
-
57.90M
643.90M
400.00K
25.00M
108.30M
821.60M
715.40M
572.10M
688.30M
116.20M
572.10M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
28.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 2000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
8.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 136000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 40000.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 60000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
41.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 19000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.01B
42.00M
1.05B
480.00M
636.00M
89.00M
2.26B
511.00M
1.23B
561.00M
-
-
92.00M
2.39B
-
4.65B
173.00M
31.00M
32.00M
46.00M
186.00M
436.00M
995.00M
88.00M
1.19B
-
1.62B
-
2.12B
- 4000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.25B
3.03B
4.65B
-
1.03B
15.0M
35.00M
7.00M
23.00M
- 2000.00K
-
-
- 12000.00K
- 3000.00K
- 17000.00K
- 2000.00K
45.00M
1.01B
966.00M
41.00M
- 19000.00K
22.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MKSI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$107.91
$372.42
$411.67
$455.05
$503.00