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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Mitek Systems, Inc. (XNAS:MITK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MITK
Name:
MITEK SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:MITK)
Sector:
1.96M
Industry:
Software�Application
CEO:
Mr. Scipio Carnecchia
Total Employees:
435
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -84.06% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MITEK SYSTEMS, INC.(MITK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�APPLICATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
9.8
One Month Price Target:
$9.84
Six Month Price Target :
$10.02
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$10.24
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$9.76
Price Upper limit ($) :
$9.86
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$9.17
This week:
$8.4
This month :
$7.
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
421.32M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
44.40M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
20.62%
-14.5%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$12.70
$11.36
$6.90
$8.24
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$10.93
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$10.64
$8.67
$8.96
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MITK
Sharpe Ratio:
2.73%
Comparison:
MITK, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 182.82% higher than the industry
& ratio is 19.60% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MITK
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.47%
Monthly returns:
1.90%
Yearly returns:
9.94%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 129.26% above industry average
Classification:
MITK, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.67
Statistical test of Returns:
MITK has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.16%
Weekly Volatility:
7.06%
Monthly Volatility:
14.12%
Yearly Volatility:
48.91%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.84%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -73.27% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.39%
Weekly VaR:
-14.29%
Monthly VaR:
-28.58%
How Much Can the price of
MITK
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$7.43
This translates to price declining to:
$1.47
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MITK is a 101.68% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 72.78% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -12.16% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MITK
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.67
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.756
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.07
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.42
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.899
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.474
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.387
Beta is -51.62% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.335
Beta is -49.75% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
4.85%
Sustainable growth rate is -84.40% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.150
Alpha is -736.80% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 957% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MITK
Equity cost of capital:
0.077
Equity cost of capital is -37.01% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.84%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.02%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.75%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.75%
WACC is -25.13% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$2.98
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.32
Annual revenue growth rate is -54.37% below industry average
EPS:
$0.21
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.65
-
-
Debt per share
$2.90
EBITDA per share
$0.65
Valuation Analysis Today of
MITK
P/E Ratio:
75.98
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
190.46
P/E ratio is -60.11% lower than main peers & is -57.22% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $37.30
MITK is -73.72% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.29
Price to sales ratio is -71.32% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.32
Price to free cash flow: 15.13
Price to free cash flow ratio is -77.07% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-155.61%
Net income growth rate is -163.73% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
68.63%
Net debt to equity ratio:
56.76%
Debt to assets ratio:
31.92%
Net debt to assets ratio:
26.40%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -41.82% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.66
Interest coverage ratio is -93.12% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1711.49%
Annual debt growth is 83% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.01%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.455
Statistical significance of correlation:
MITK has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.503
Stock price is -9.59% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.503
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.044
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.08
Kurtosis
4.436
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.441
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MITK
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
360%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
14.38%
Operating profit margin is -175.06% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
360%
Effective Tax Rate:
12.66%
Effective tax rate is -52.02% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
5.24%
Return on equity (ROE) is -140.09% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.44%
Return on assets (ROA) is -163.49% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
5.75
Current ratio is 91.86% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-6.5
Cash conversion cycle is -106.91% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
31.87%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
304.0K
Each employee generates -12% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
66.0K
Each employee generates 514% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
22.6K
Each employee generates -230% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
4.5K
Each employee generates -158% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
493.5K
Each employee generates -158% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 22.67%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 1383.03% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
MITK
MICROVISION, INC. (XNAS:MVIS)
GROUPON, INC. (XNAS:GRPN)
Turkish Airlines Inc. (OTCM:TKHVY)
META MATERIALS INC. (XNAS:MMAT)
IMTXW
OPERA LIMITED (XNAS:OPRA)
DIGIMARC CORPORATION (XNAS:DMRC)
Canaan Inc (XNAS:CAN)
ONESPAN INC. (XNAS:OSPN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�13%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
132.24M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
13.28M
118.96M
31.03M
23.75M
57.98M
34.23M
-
89.01M
-
7.86M
9.61M
28.72M
19.02M
9.83M
11.25M
1.42M
9.83M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.18M
Differed Income Tax :
- 348.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
3.13M
Change in Working Capital :
- 8341.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 402.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 2496.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.51M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
2.25M
Investments in PP&E:
- 295.00K
Net Acquisitions:
30.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 35309.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2022
Q1
24.21M
137.75M
161.97M
21.34M
-
5.04M
188.34M
10.22M
62.31M
26.29M
56.26M
10.68M
48.92M
214.66M
-
403.00M
2.57M
1.97M
-
8.17M
20.06M
32.77M
128.64M
49.50M
182.80M
-
215.57M
44.00K
- 13226.00K
- 2480.0K
203.09M
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
102.28M
187.43M
403.00M
194.01M
130.61M
106.4M
37.39M
240.00K
2.05M
- 17.00K
25.00K
- 10145.00K
-
-
- 10137.00K
-
- 6098.00K
24.21M
30.31M
2.25M
- 295.00K
1.96M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MITK
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$10.29
$21.31
$22.27
$23.27
$24.32