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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Mirati Therapeutics, Inc. (XNAS:MRTX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MRTX
Name:
MIRATI THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:MRTX)
Sector:
- 161609.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Dr. Charles Baum
Total Employees:
413
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 7.06% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MIRATI THERAPEUTICS, INC.(MRTX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
81.03
One Month Price Target:
$81.41
Six Month Price Target :
$83.31
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$85.59
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$80.51
Price Upper limit ($) :
$81.62
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$74.31
This week:
$66.
This month :
$50.96
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.34B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
55.61M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
36.45%
-31.9%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$112.24
$97.97
$49.82
$64.09
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$93.33
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$90.28
$68.69
$71.78
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MRTX
Sharpe Ratio:
0.87%
Comparison:
MRTX, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -55.36% lower than the industry
& is -61.92% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MRTX
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.22%
Monthly returns:
0.88%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -58.03% below industry average
Classification:
MRTX, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.9
Statistical test of Returns:
MRTX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.06%
Weekly Volatility:
9.08%
Monthly Volatility:
18.17%
Yearly Volatility:
62.93%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
5.15%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 26.75% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.30%
Weekly VaR:
-18.55%
Monthly VaR:
-37.11%
How Much Can the price of
MRTX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-32%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$54.85
This translates to price declining to:
$12.15
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MRTX is a 161.91% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 124.38% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -14.57% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MRTX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.84
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.848
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.199
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.808
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.654
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.73
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.927
Beta is -9.58% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -27.22% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.017
Alpha is -88.06% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 108% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MRTX
Equity cost of capital:
0.089
Equity cost of capital is -19.46% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.58%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$1.31
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.61
Annual revenue growth rate is -59.47% below industry average
EPS:
-$11.90
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
25.36%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 154.13% higher than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.82
EBITDA per share
-$11.28
Valuation Analysis Today of
MRTX
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
548.76
-
-
MRTX is -107.59% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
61.9
Price to sales ratio is 52.81% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.61
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
252.46%
Net income growth rate is 257.68% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
3.67%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-20.72%
Debt to assets ratio:
3.22%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-18.21%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -92.35% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
9.48%
Annual debt growth is -93% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.271
Statistical significance of correlation:
MRTX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is -20.31% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.066
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.156
Kurtosis
14.738
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.265
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MRTX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-858.47%
Operating profit margin is 100.26% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.52%
Effective tax rate is -109.16% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-50.82%
Return on equity (ROE) is -11.36% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-44.67%
Return on assets (ROA) is 118.94% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
10.87
Current ratio is 34.27% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-6.76%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
176.3K
Each employee generates -89% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 1519.0K
Each employee generates -494% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 1537.2K
Each employee generates -1301% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 391.3K
Each employee generates -366% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
189.3K
Each employee generates -366% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 69.90%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -2048.35% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
MRTX
SAREPTA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:SRPT)
NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:NBIX)
OMNICELL, INC. (XNAS:OMCL)
NOVOCURE LIMITED (XNAS:NVCR)
Legend Biotech Corporation (XNAS:LEGN)
INTELLIA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:NTLA)
MEDPACE HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:MEDP)
Ascendis Pharma A/S (XNAS:ASND)
CHANGE HEALTHCARE INC. (XNAS:CHNG)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�4%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
72.80M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
535.50M
162.28M
162.28M
-
-
697.78M
-
-
2.12M
- 627364.00K
- 624978.00K
- 634878.00K
- 631191.00K
3.30M
- 634878.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
629.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
42.91M
Change in Working Capital :
- 21676.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
6.06M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 160469.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 1140.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 212545.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
304.70M
1.02B
1.33B
1.81M
-
14.83M
1.34B
54.41M
-
-
3.14M
-
20.64M
78.18M
-
1.42B
27.94M
-
-
-
95.63M
123.57M
45.83M
2.62M
48.45M
-
172.02M
56.00K
- 1900408.00K
4.3M
3.15B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
697.78M
1.25B
1.42B
1.02B
45.83M
- 258867.0K
263.24M
-
49.56M
-
-
-
-
2.53M
2.53M
-
- 108387.00K
305.32M
413.70M
- 160469.00K
- 1140.00K
- 161609.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MRTX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$85.86
$90.69
$95.80
$101.20
$106.90