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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Mimedx Group, Inc. (XNAS:MDXG) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MDXG
Name:
MIMEDX GROUP, INC. (XNAS:MDXG)
Sector:
- 10395.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Mr. Timothy Wright
Total Employees:
811
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -9.08% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MIMEDX GROUP, INC.(MDXG) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
3.43
One Month Price Target:
$3.46
Six Month Price Target :
$3.63
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$3.84
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$3.4
Price Upper limit ($) :
$3.46
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$3.08
This week:
$2.66
This month :
$1.88
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
388.54M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
113.61M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
32.58%
-59.56%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$5.04
$4.30
$1.82
$2.56
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$4.06
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$3.91
$2.79
$2.95
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MDXG
Sharpe Ratio:
0.49%
Comparison:
MDXG, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -74.84% lower than the industry
& is -78.54% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MDXG
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.16%
Monthly returns:
0.66%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -68.65% below industry average
Classification:
MDXG, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.8
Statistical test of Returns:
MDXG has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.93%
Weekly Volatility:
11.02%
Monthly Volatility:
22.03%
Yearly Volatility:
76.32%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.29%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -33.18% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.08%
Weekly VaR:
-22.55%
Monthly VaR:
-45.10%
How Much Can the price of
MDXG
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-40%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$2.07
This translates to price declining to:
$0.51
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MDXG is a 218.31% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 172.70% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 3.62% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MDXG
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.77
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.925
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.308
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.123
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.451
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.69
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.263
Beta is 40.42% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is 54.00% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.074
Alpha is -152.11% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -471% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MDXG
Equity cost of capital:
0.153
Equity cost of capital is 38.59% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.69%
Before-tax cost of debt:
9.61%
After-tax cost of debt:
7.59%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
7.59%
WACC is 45.18% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$2.27
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.58
Annual revenue growth rate is -105.26% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.17
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-14.50%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -245.31% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.42
EBITDA per share
-$0.02
Valuation Analysis Today of
MDXG
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
28.99
-
-
MDXG is -122.49% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.51
Price to sales ratio is -96.26% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.58
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-66.71%
Net income growth rate is -194.52% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
56.71%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-32.26%
Debt to assets ratio:
27.65%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-15.73%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -34.41% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-0.58
Interest coverage ratio is -99.51% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.90%
Annual debt growth is -99% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.02%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.169
Statistical significance of correlation:
MDXG has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is -50.38% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.02
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.056
Kurtosis
34.351
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.89
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MDXG
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
332%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-2.91%
Operating profit margin is -99.32% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
332%
Effective Tax Rate:
-2.07%
Effective tax rate is -136.24% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-14.57%
Return on equity (ROE) is -74.59% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-7.10%
Return on assets (ROA) is -65.18% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
3.71
Current ratio is -54.12% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
18.4
Cash conversion cycle is -96.56% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 11.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-32.26%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
317.6K
Each employee generates -80% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 3.3K
Each employee generates -101% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 15.3K
Each employee generates -112% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 12.8K
Each employee generates -109% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
47.5K
Each employee generates -109% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 48.05%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -1439.30% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
MDXG
CARA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:CARA)
ATEA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:AVIR)
ONTRAK, INC. (XNAS:OTRKP)
908 DEVICES INC. (XNAS:MASS)
CULLINAN ONCOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:CGEM)
NANO-X IMAGING LTD (XNAS:NNOX)
SINOVAC BIOTECH LTD. (XNAS:SVA)
HUMACYTE, INC (XNAS:HUMA)
GRAPHITE BIO, INC. (XNAS:GRPH)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�13%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
257.54M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
43.58M
213.96M
18.97M
-
202.53M
-
- 100.00K
221.40M
-
4.63M
4.82M
- 2692.00K
- 7484.00K
- 12392.00K
- 12141.00K
251.00K
- 12392.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.03M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
4.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 5178.00K
Accounts Receivables:
2.68M
Other Working Capital:
- 6431.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
414.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 10223.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 118.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
75.68M
-
75.68M
38.35M
13.17M
8.71M
135.91M
13.12M
19.98M
5.27M
-
-
172.00K
38.54M
-
174.44M
8.12M
-
-
-
28.47M
36.59M
48.24M
4.55M
52.79M
-
89.38M
114.00K
- 172198.00K
-
164.65M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
264.97M
85.06M
174.44M
-
48.24M
- 27437.0K
-
- 30.00K
- 148.00K
- 11.00K
-
- 1191.00K
-
166.00K
- 1036.00K
-
- 11407.00K
75.68M
87.08M
- 10223.00K
- 172.00K
- 10395.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MDXG
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$3.86
$2.85
$3.19
$3.57
$3.99