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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Midwestone Financial Group, Inc. (XNAS:MOFG) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MOFG
Name:
MIDWESTONE FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. (XNAS:MOFG)
Sector:
25.24M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Charles Funk
Total Employees:
760
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -417.90% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MIDWESTONE FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.(MOFG) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
30.58
One Month Price Target:
$30.73
Six Month Price Target :
$31.49
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$32.39
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$30.43
Price Upper limit ($) :
$30.75
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$28.64
This week:
$26.24
This month :
$21.9
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
477.68M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
15.62M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
22.33%
-23.43%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$39.59
$35.48
$21.57
$25.68
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$34.14
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$33.26
$27.01
$27.90
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MOFG
Sharpe Ratio:
0.64%
Comparison:
MOFG, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -47.57% lower than the industry
& is -71.74% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MOFG
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.14%
Monthly returns:
0.58%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -36.54% below industry average
Classification:
MOFG, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.74
Statistical test of Returns:
MOFG has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.11%
Weekly Volatility:
6.94%
Monthly Volatility:
13.89%
Yearly Volatility:
48.11%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.88%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -71.72% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.35%
Weekly VaR:
-14.20%
Monthly VaR:
-28.40%
How Much Can the price of
MOFG
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$23.00
This translates to price declining to:
$4.59
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MOFG is a 100.41% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 71.69% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 8.72% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MOFG
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.88
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.611
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.864
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.726
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.601
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.031
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.813
Beta is 8.52% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -8.45% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
10.55%
Sustainable growth rate is 15.55% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.023
Alpha is -295.58% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -144% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MOFG
Equity cost of capital:
0.092
Equity cost of capital is -5.72% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.56%
Before-tax cost of debt:
11.24%
After-tax cost of debt:
8.88%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
8.88%
WACC is -20.06% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$12.63
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.95
Annual revenue growth rate is -41.42% below industry average
EPS:
$3.90
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
14.25%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 18.56% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$7.58
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 13.87%
Equity growth rate per share is -64.18% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$8.96
EBITDA per share
$6.60
Valuation Analysis Today of
MOFG
P/E Ratio:
8.44
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
14.48
P/E ratio is -41.69% lower than main peers & is -31.98% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $48.39
MOFG is -36.81% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $31.97
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $12.40
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.42
Price to sales ratio is -43.38% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.95
Price to free cash flow: 4.03
Price to free cash flow ratio is 76.35% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
74.05%
Net income growth rate is 34.46% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 6.04%
Dividend yeild: 3.02%
Previous Dividend: $0.24
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.24
Previous Dividend: $0.92
Expected next dividend best case: $0.24
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.23
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.22
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.62%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 30/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/01/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-31--$0.24
2021-11-30--$0.23
2021-05-28--$0.23
2022-02-28--$0.24
2021-08-31--$0.23
2021-02-26--$0.23
Dividend growth rate is -93.12% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
27.73%
Net debt to equity ratio:
22.39%
Debt to assets ratio:
2.35%
Net debt to assets ratio:
1.90%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.59% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.31
Interest coverage ratio is 540.94% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 9.71%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.477
Statistical significance of correlation:
MOFG has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -4.80% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.034
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.061
Kurtosis
11.617
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.13
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MOFG
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
22.19%
Effective tax rate is 2.99% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
12.24%
Return on equity (ROE) is 2.58% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.04%
Return on assets (ROA) is -55.06% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.91%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
259.6K
Each employee generates -32% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
135.7K
Each employee generates -40% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
81.2K
Each employee generates -43% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
33.2K
Each employee generates -60% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
3.3M
Each employee generates -60% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
MOFG
MARLIN TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION (XNAS:FINM)
GHVI
HBT FINANCIAL, INC (XNAS:HBT)
BUSINESS FIRST BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:BFST)
RBNC
WATERSTONE FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:WSBF)
SSPK
CRESCENT CAPITAL BDC, INC. (XNAS:CCAP)
SENIOR CONNECT ACQUISITION CORP. I (XNAS:SNRH)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�8%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
197.27M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
79.55M
83.60M
4.05M
-
-
174.41M
19.41M
4.38M
103.13M
-
61.73M
79.34M
17.61M
61.73M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.47M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
560.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 857.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 531.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
10.11M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
26.18M
Investments in PP&E:
- 938.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 198857.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
59.83M
1.15B
1.21B
32.62M
-
-
-
85.19M
62.48M
27.93M
2.35B
-
-
2.53B
8.49B
5.96B
-
32.90M
-
-
-
32.90M
139.90M
-
139.90M
5.56B
5.46B
16.58M
253.50M
- 42016.0K
276.39M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
504.46M
5.96B
3.50B
172.80M
113.0M
95.01M
- 9035.00K
- 113817.00K
- 15039.00K
-
- 356.00K
- 3729.00K
- 37236.00K
- 56360.00K
-
- 144001.00K
59.83M
203.83M
26.18M
- 938.00K
25.24M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MOFG
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$32.55
$48.49
$51.36
$54.41
$57.63