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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (XNAS:MSBI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MSBI
Name:
MIDLAND STATES BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:MSBI)
Sector:
38.66M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Jeffrey Ludwig
Total Employees:
864
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 120.15% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MIDLAND STATES BANCORP, INC.(MSBI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
24.87
One Month Price Target:
$24.99
Six Month Price Target :
$25.61
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$26.36
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$24.76
Price Upper limit ($) :
$24.99
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$23.43
This week:
$21.65
This month :
$18.44
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
544.18M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
22.07M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.13%
-19.76%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$31.55
$28.50
$18.19
$21.24
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$27.51
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$26.86
$22.22
$22.88
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MSBI
Sharpe Ratio:
0.41%
Comparison:
MSBI, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -66.89% lower than the industry
& is -82.15% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MSBI
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.10%
Monthly returns:
0.41%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -55.24% below industry average
Classification:
MSBI, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.86
Statistical test of Returns:
MSBI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.83%
Weekly Volatility:
6.32%
Monthly Volatility:
12.64%
Yearly Volatility:
43.80%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.79%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -36.55% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.79%
Weekly VaR:
-12.94%
Monthly VaR:
-25.87%
How Much Can the price of
MSBI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-89.63%
This translates to price declining to:
$19.24
This translates to price declining to:
$2.58
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MSBI is a 82.62% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 56.45% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -1.03% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MSBI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.89
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.633
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.896
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.563
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.488
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.865
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.068
Beta is -16.66% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -7.60% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
6.41%
Sustainable growth rate is -29.74% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.044
Alpha is -476.29% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -278% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MSBI
Equity cost of capital:
0.092
Equity cost of capital is -5.15% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.85%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.97%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.72%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.72%
WACC is -21.96% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$13.14
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.85
Annual revenue growth rate is -41.84% below industry average
EPS:
$3.68
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
16.12%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 34.09% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$9.33
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 27.31%
Equity growth rate per share is -29.46% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$20.82
EBITDA per share
$6.61
Valuation Analysis Today of
MSBI
P/E Ratio:
6.04
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
12.06
P/E ratio is -49.92% lower than main peers & is -51.34% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $45.66
MSBI is -45.54% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $34.91
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $15.71
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.89
Price to sales ratio is -55.75% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.85
Price to free cash flow: 2.67
Price to free cash flow ratio is -92.62% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
111.87%
Net income growth rate is 103.13% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 7.74%
Dividend yeild: 4.58%
Previous Dividend: $0.29
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.29
Previous Dividend: $1.14
Expected next dividend best case: $0.30
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.28
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.27
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.86%
Expected next dividend payment date: 22/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/11/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/01/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 23/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 13/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-12--$0.29
2021-11-19--$0.28
2021-05-13--$0.28
2022-02-10--$0.29
2021-08-12--$0.28
2021-02-11--$0.28
Dividend growth rate is -92.10% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
71.23%
Net debt to equity ratio:
20.68%
Debt to assets ratio:
6.26%
Net debt to assets ratio:
1.82%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -96.24% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.32
Interest coverage ratio is 541.72% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-52.14%
Annual debt growth is -16564% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 9.81%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.443
Statistical significance of correlation:
MSBI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -11.48% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.044
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.072
Kurtosis
8.39
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.213
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MSBI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.09%
Operating profit margin is -99.76% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
18.48%
Effective tax rate is -14.24% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
12.95%
Return on equity (ROE) is 8.56% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.14%
Return on assets (ROA) is -50.61% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.63%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
335.6K
Each employee generates -12% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
168.8K
Each employee generates -25% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
96.7K
Each employee generates -32% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
44.7K
Each employee generates -46% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.4M
Each employee generates -46% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
MSBI
VICKERS VANTAGE I UNT (XNAS:VCKAU)
Calamos Glbl Dyn Inc (XNAS:CHW)
CNBKA
MONEYGRAM INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNAS:MGI)
Khosla Ventures Acquisition Co III (XNAS:KVSC)
NEWTEK BUSINESS SERVICES CORP. (XNAS:NEWT)
HINGHAM INSTITUTION FOR SAVINGS, THE (XNAS:HIFS)
PEAPACK-GLADSTONE FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:PGC)
HANMI FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:HAFC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
289.98M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
115.59M
119.04M
3.45M
-
-
240.06M
27.43M
15.99M
145.88M
-
83.53M
102.46M
18.93M
83.53M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.86M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
527.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 13799.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 361.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
27.74M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
39.08M
Investments in PP&E:
- 414.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 16294.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
326.09M
849.07M
1.18B
448.83M
-
-
-
77.86M
161.90M
50.46M
894.70M
-
-
1.18B
8.52B
7.34B
-
-
-
-
-
-
459.44M
-
459.44M
7.15B
6.69B
220.00K
226.76M
- 28035.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
644.99M
7.34B
1.74B
459.44M
133.4M
21.77M
- 315834.00K
- 310769.00K
- 50000.00K
-
- 1109.00K
- 6464.00K
- 18842.00K
- 76415.00K
-
- 348107.00K
332.26M
680.37M
39.08M
- 414.00K
38.66M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MSBI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$26.49
$37.95
$40.22
$42.62
$45.17