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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Midcap Financial Investment Corporation (XNAS:MFIC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
AINV
Name:
MIDCAP FINANCIAL INVESTMENT CORPORATION (XNAS:MFIC)
Sector:
- 4879.00K
Industry:
Asset Management
CEO:
Mr. Howard Widra
Total Employees:
0
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MIDCAP FINANCIAL INVESTMENT CORPORATION(MFIC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ASSET MANAGEMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
12.91
One Month Price Target:
$13.03
Six Month Price Target :
$13.61
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$14.31
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$12.84
Price Upper limit ($) :
$12.98
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$12.1
This week:
$11.11
This month :
$9.3
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
809.86M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
63.52M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
30.34%
-19.74%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$16.65
$14.95
$9.17
$10.87
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$14.40
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$14.03
$11.42
$11.79
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
AINV
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.15%
Comparison:
AINV, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -118.03% lower than the industry
& is -106.36% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
AINV
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
0.02%
Monthly returns:
0.09%
Yearly returns:
9.18%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -88.41% below industry average
Classification:
AINV, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.7
Statistical test of Returns:
AINV has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.04%
Weekly Volatility:
6.81%
Monthly Volatility:
13.61%
Yearly Volatility:
47.15%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.58%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -48.06% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.25%
Weekly VaR:
-13.97%
Monthly VaR:
-27.94%
How Much Can the price of
AINV
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$9.73
This translates to price declining to:
$1.94
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
AINV is a 97.17% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 68.92% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 17.13% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
AINV
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.62
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.026
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.451
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.59
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.805
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.031
Beta is 56.79% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.694
Beta is -4.56% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.132
Alpha is 136.19% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -838% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
AINV
Equity cost of capital:
0.142
Equity cost of capital is -3.59% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.69%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.92%
Overall debt rating:
Upper medium A grade (third highest grade),CO8<=0.0429,"Medium BBB grade (Fourth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.92%
WACC is 4.68% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.36
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.79
Annual revenue growth rate is -140.13% below industry average
EPS:
$1.28
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
21.95%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -20.96% lower than the Asset Management industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -10.87%
Equity growth rate per share is -151.44% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$23.44
EBITDA per share
$2.31
Valuation Analysis Today of
AINV
P/E Ratio:
14.89
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
19.4
P/E ratio is -23.24% lower than main peers & is -7.78% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $20.67
AINV is -37.54% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.85
Price to sales ratio is -43.86% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.79
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
42.50%
Net income growth rate is -70.77% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 24.47%
Dividend yeild: 11.15%
Previous Dividend: $0.36
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.36
Previous Dividend: $1.44
Expected next dividend best case: $0.48
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.24
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.33
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 69.63%
Expected next dividend payment date: 10/05/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 14/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 16/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-15--$0.36
2021-12-17--$0.05
2021-06-16--$0.36
2022-03-18--$0.36
2021-09-20--$0.05
2021-05-19--$0.50
Dividend growth rate is 1161.08% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
142.74%
Net debt to equity ratio:
138.20%
Debt to assets ratio:
57.59%
Net debt to assets ratio:
55.76%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 10.18% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
2.66
Interest coverage ratio is -95.52% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-18.35%
Annual debt growth is 165% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 4.21%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.482
Statistical significance of correlation:
AINV has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.576
Stock price is -16.40% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.576
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.054
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.095
Kurtosis
22.178
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.875
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
AINV
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.20%
Return on equity (ROE) is -63.59% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.71%
Return on assets (ROA) is -36.37% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.4x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
-
EBITDA generated per employee:
-
-
Profit generated per employee:
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
-
-
Assets/Capital per employee
-
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
AINV
FTOC
HOMESTREET, INC. (XNAS:HMST)
PREFERRED BANK (XNAS:PFBC)
REPUBLIC BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:RBCAA)
BMTC GROUP INC. (XTSE:GBT)
HERITAGE FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:HFWA)
ORIGIN BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:OBNK)
WORLD ACCEPTANCE CORPORATION (XNAS:WRLD)
WISDOMTREE INVESTMENTS, INC. (XNAS:WETF)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�13%
Hold�29%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
213.20M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
24.28M
-
9.10M
9.10M
-
-
9.10M
151.08M
55.00M
- 4450.00K
146.55M
-
96.00M
96.00M
-
96.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
2.55M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 39568.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 4879.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
6/30/21
2022
Q1
47.32M
-
47.32M
23.22M
-
-
-
-
-
-
2.49B
-
-
-
2.59B
2.59B
36.81M
-
-
-
-
-
1.49B
-
1.49B
3.03B
1.54B
65.00K
- 1054892.00K
-
2.10B
June 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
-
1.04B
2.59B
-
1.49B
1.4B
-
-
-
- 65402.00K
-
- 2026.00K
- 23493.00K
88.54M
- 2381.00K
- 47.00K
- 7307.00K
47.32M
54.62M
- 4879.00K
-
- 4879.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
AINV
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$14.38
$24.75
$27.44
$30.42
$33.73